《全宋诗》补遗12首

《全宋诗》总成一代诗歌之文献,其疏漏在所难免。清代谢启昆的《粤西金石略》曾为《全宋诗》编著者所采用,然而翻检《粤西金石略》,发现仍有遗珠。今比对《全宋诗》所录及诸家所补之篇什,补其所遗宋诗12首,以期对宋诗研究有些许裨益。     

周恩来与中国核外交战略的形成

20世纪50～60年代,从“利用外援发展核武器”到“独立自主、优先发展”,中共中央确立了优先发展核武器的英明战略。在这一过程中,周恩来始终处于决策和执行的核心地位,他的高瞻远瞩和极力坚持对中国发展核武器起到了重要作用。为了保证中国核战略的有效实施,周恩来亲自主持、倡导并执行了中国的核外交,他所提出的中国核外交战略是中国核战略的重要内容。     

陈宣帝太建北伐述论

陈氏太建北伐,系东晋南朝北伐史上的绝响之作。陈宣帝太建北伐的政治策略,是联周击齐;战争进程是先取江淮,而后强争黄淮交战于周。就南北对峙军事要地与江左国土安全关系论,太建北伐是内含战略防御与战略进攻的双重底蕴的。但陈氏起于南朝末造,经济武备均不及北朝,陈宣帝不能审此而失之烛远,穷兵远略将不可避免最终的失败。太建北伐始胜于周齐交争之隙,终败于北周统一北方之际,要在“合纵图齐”政略选择的失误;太建北伐最终归于失败,要在不仅折兵阃外再失淮泗,而影响亦及于南北统一的历史进程。     

从和平外交到革命外交——20世纪50年代中后期我国外交战略大转变国际原因探析

20世纪50年代中后期,我国外交战略经历了一个从“和平外交”到“革命外交”的大转变。促使这种大转变发生的原因是复杂的、多元的,其中国际因素占有重要地位。本文对此进行分析、归纳与研究,以就教于方家。     

如何讲好中国文物的故事——论中国文物故事传播体系建设

"让文物活起来"是新时代我国文物工作的重大历史使命。"让文物活起来"的关键是要讲好文物的故事。要讲好文物的故事,必须构建完整、有效的文物故事传播体系:第一要挖掘文物背后的历史文化,做到见物、见人、见精神,这是基础和前提;第二要做好文物历史文化故事的策划编剧,"内容为王";第三要开拓平台,不断创新文物故事传播的方式。只有这样,文物才能真正"活起来"。     

“一带一路”重大项目地缘风险研究

“一带一路”机遇和前景无限,但同时遭遇着严峻的地缘风险。重大项目地缘风险是由地缘因素引起的导致重大项目产生不利后果的可能性,具有客观性、主观性、主体间性、不确定性、后果严重性、纯风险性特点。论文基于全球、区域、国家、项目四个尺度,从“地缘”视角深入探讨了重大项目地缘风险影响机理,在多尺度、多主体、多因素的综合研究框架下构建了重大项目地缘风险评估指标体系,以中国面向东南亚、南亚重大项目地缘风险为例进行研究,并对缅甸密松水电项目进行地缘风险微观剖析。     

以西安为中心的关中城市群的结构优化及其方略

城市群是城市化发展的新形态,也是区域经济发展中的"发展极"。以西安为中心的关中城市群已经形成了西部经济"发展极"的初始条件,成为了西部经济发展的核心地带。以西安为中心的关中城市群的基本现状是:城市群总规模较小,中等城市数量少,小城镇发展滞后。从目前提高竞争力和带动西部经济发展的目标来看,面临着完善空间结构、功能结构和时序结构的任务。在空间结构优化方面,要强化西安中心城市的作用,培育二级中心城市,完善小城镇建设体系,以西安为中心构筑四大城镇群。在功能结构完善方面,要强化城市群区的联系,进行城市群中各个城市功能和性质的重新定位;从时序结构的完善来看,要以增强中心城市的吸引力和辐射力为目标,从近期、远期和远景三个方面安排时序结构。     

Prediction and its discontents: guidance for Australia from the debate over social science forecasting

The well-documented failure of many experts to predict many events of strategic importance—from 9/11 to the global financial crisis to the Arab Spring—has led to a fashionable belief amongst some academics and popular commentators that prediction is a ‘fool's errand’. Problems inherent in forecasting political events, such as cognitive biases, strategic interaction, complexity effects and various others, make this an attractive position. However, although a proper degree of humility is warranted about the ability to predict strategic events, this article argues that not making predictions at all is not an option. No genuinely workable policy advice could flow to Australian policy makers unless analysts are able, however roughly, to try to forecast the future. Moreover, with some hard, determined work, social scientists have recently produced work which promises to be able to foresee important events such as state failures and civil wars with reasonable accuracy. Experts should be encouraged to make, and should routinely be evaluated on, predictions about their area of expertise. Even failed predictions can be useful in pointing up gaps in knowledge and understanding which would otherwise have remained opaque.     

Children's projected political preference: transcending local politics

Traditionally, research on political preference has primarily focused on adults within their local political context. This research attempts to show that the perceived political preference of children is part of their national identity, and encompasses not only local politics but also the global and regional discourse. The present study surveyed 1187 Palestinian adolescents attending school, grades 5–7, in the West Bank to examine whether children's future political party preference is grounded in local/global discourse. The findings revealed a discrepancy between participants' perceptions of the local dominant political party and their projected political party preferences. This research argues that political party preference is facilitated through the transcendence of national identity embedded in children's geopolitical agency. The significance of the findings emphasizes that territorial boundaries are artificial; therefore, children's geopolitical agency is impacted by extraterritorial discourse and is able to transcend the local and regional context into a global politics.     

试论1949～1959年中苏关系中的美国因素

1949～1959年的中苏关系,经历了从走向结盟到蜜月合作再到出现公开分歧的发展历程。美国作为影响中苏关系的一个外部因素,其制定的分裂中苏关系的楔子战略也经历了三个不同的发展阶段:从第一阶段以中国作为主要突破口,通过所谓灵活政策来阻止中苏结盟;到第二阶段仍以中国为主要突破口,通过强硬政策致力于分裂中苏的长远目标;再到第三阶段以苏联为主要突破口,通过软硬分施的策略来推动中苏同盟走向分裂。楔子战略的侧重点和实施手段不尽相同,效果也前后有别。