Ukraine's Financial Crisis, 2009

A prominent specialist in the economic affairs of the former Soviet Union relates and analyzes the state of Ukraine's economy in light of a series of discussions and interviews with the country's Prime Minister and leading economic officials in Kyiv in 2008 and April 2009. The author, a former economic advisor to the country's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, devotes this paper to a penetrating analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 on Ukraine's budget, banks, exchange rates, money supply, industrial sectors (particularly energy and steel), GDP, and inflationary pressures. Due attention is given to economic relations with the EU and Russia as well as to financial assistance from the IMF.Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E500, E600, O520, P200. 1 table, 4 figures, 38 references.     

China's Energy Security: Challenges and Priorities

In a companion paper to the essays comparing China's and India's economic rise (Prime, 2009) as well as India's energy security (Dadwal, 2009), two specialists on China's energy industries review the country's challenges posed by the need to dramatically increase energy use in order to support economic growth while coping with pressures to reduce environmental impacts from emissions of greenhouse gases. After reviewing the current mix of fuels in the economy and discussing each major energy resource (in terms of proven reserves, production, consumption, and foreign import requirements), the authors focus on measures undertaken by the Chinese government and corporations to improve access to vital supplies. The paper covers efforts to enhance the country's energy security, which include diversifying sources of oil supply, purchasing oil and gas concessions and financing of energy infrastructure development in African and Central Asian countries, instituting reforms to encourage more efficient energy use, and developing alternative energy sources. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O130, P280, Q400. 7 figures, 2 tables, 82 references.     

Russia after the Global Financial Crisis

Two prominent American specialists on the Russian economy present a fundamental analysis of basic economic factors explaining how the global financial crisis has played out in Russia and its implications for the country's future. More specifically, the authors examine the consequences of Russia's dependence on and addiction to resource (oil and gas) rents and of the management system put in place under Vladimir Putin to maintain, secure, and distribute these rents. They then investigate how each of these factors has emerged from the crisis and how it might evolve in the years ahead. Focusing on the distinction between rent dependence and addiction, the authors question the conventional wisdom that diversification of Russia's economy (away from oil and gas) is a desirable objective that will render it less vulnerable to external shocks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E020, F020, G010, O130. 15 figures, 44 references.     

Forging Environmentalism: Justice,Livelihood and Contested Environments. Joanne Bauer,ed.

A senior Japanese authority on the Russian economy and its energy sector addresses the country's exposure to the so-called Dutch disease, suggesting that Russia did suffer from the potentially ruinous overdependence on oil and gas exports. The author argues, however, that the symptoms of the disease were actually not severe, attributing his interpretation to: (1) drastic decline of noncompetitive domestic manufacturing industries in the 1990s, which prompted a huge inflow of imports in the 2000s, but left competitive manufacturing enterprises in a position to survive; (2) extraordinary oil price increases in the 2000s, which significantly raised household and business incomes, creating augmented demand for products of domestic origin; (3) large differences between Russian and world prices of oil and gas, which functioned as subsidies for domestic manufacturing; and (4) massive intervention in foreign exchange markets by the Central Bank of Russia, which restricted the growth of imports and thus strengthened the surviving domestic manufacturing enterprises.     

Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth

A noted economist and observer of post-Soviet affairs presents a study probing the influence of high oil prices on Russia's GDP growth. The paper analyzes the contributions to the country's GDP by sectors of origin and final use, and pays special attention to the influence of trade margins produced by oil and gas but recorded and placed by Goskomstat Rossii in Russia's trade sector. The author's interpretation of statistical data released by Goskomstat Rossii as well as by Russian customs authorities enables him to conclude that the present-day economic boom in Russia can be characterized as consumption-led growth fueled by oil and gas export revenues. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 2 figures, 10 tables, 20 references.     

The geological methane budget at Continental Margins and its influence on climate change

Geological methane, generated by microbial decay and the thermogenic breakdown of organic matter, migrates towards the surface (seabed) to be trapped in reservoirs, sequestered by gas hydrates or escape through natural gas seeps or mud volcanoes (via ebullition). The total annual geological contribution to the atmosphere is estimated as 16–40 Terragrammes (Tg) methane; much of this natural flux is ‘fossil’ in origin. Emissions are affected by surface conditions (particularly the extent of ice sheets and permafrost), eustatic sea‐level and ocean bottom‐water temperatures. However, the different reservoirs and pathways are affected in different ways. Consequently, geological sources provide both positive and negative feedback to global warming and global cooling. Gas hydrates are not the only geological contributors to feedback. It is suggested that, together, these geological sources and reservoirs influence the direction and speed of global climate change, and constrain the extremes of climate.     

Substitute or addition to hypermobile lifestyles? Second home mobility and Finnish CO2 emissions

Tourism produces an increasing share in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These are mostly derived from transport emissions, and long-haul air travel in particular. Short-haul domestic tourism is believed by some to be a potential substitute for long-haul tourism. Using the example of Finland this paper examines the extent to which domestic second home tourism can substitute for other leisure trips and therefore contribute to reductions of travel-generated GHG emissions. Survey data are used to evaluate the CO₂ emissions caused by travel to domestic second homes, and to create statistical models that verify if the owners of domestic second homes travel to other leisure destinations less frequently than others, and if they cause less emissions by their leisure mobility than others with comparable economic and demographic background. We find that although the owners and users of domestic second homes travel for other leisure purposes less frequently than others, this does not mean their leisure mobility generates less emissions. Overall, owners of second homes produce significantly more CO₂ by their leisure mobility than non-owners. The use of second homes does not seem to be a substitute for high emission long-haul travels, but rather a part of an overall highly mobile leisure lifestyle. It is therefore necessary to better understand and influence the entire range of individual mobility behaviours in order to reduce travel-related GHG emissions.     

Quantitative estimation of overpressure caused by gas generation and application to the Baiyun Depression in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,South China Sea

Hydrocarbon generation can yield high fluid pressures in sedimentary basins as the conversion of solid kerogen to hydrocarbons can result in an increase in fluid volume. To quantify the relationship between gas generation and overpressure in source rocks, a set of equations for computing the pressure change due to gas generation has been derived. Those equations can be used to quantitatively estimate overpressure generated by type III kerogen in source rocks by considering gas generation and leakage, gas dissolution in formation water and residual oil, thermal cracking of oil to gas, and hydrocarbon episodic expulsion from source rocks. The equations also take consideration of other factors including source rock porosity, transformation ratio, total organic carbon (TOC), hydrogen index, and compressibility of kerogen, oil, and water. As both oil and gas are taken into account in the equations, they can also be used to estimate the evolution of overpressure caused by hydrocarbon generation of type I and type II kerogen source rocks. Sensitivity analyses on the type III kerogen source rock indicate that hydrogen index is the most influential parameter for overpressure generation, while TOC and residual gas coefficient (β: ratio of residual gas over the total gas generated) have a moderate effect. Overpressure can be generated even if the gas leakage/loss in the source rock is up to 80% of the total gas generated. This suggests that the internal pressure seal of the source rock is not a critical factor on the pressure change as long as the source rocks are capable of sealing liquid oil. The equations were applied to evaluate the overpressure in the Eocene–Oligocene Enping Formation source rocks due to hydrocarbon generation in the Baiyun Depression, the Pearl River Mouth Basin by considering the source rock properties, hydrocarbon generation history, and hydrocarbon expulsion timing. Two episodes of overpressure development due to gas generation and release were modeled to have occurred in the Enping Formation source rock since 16 Ma. The overpressure release at 10.2–5.3 Ma via hydrocarbon expulsion was apparently related to the Dongsha phase of tectonic deformation, whereas the pressure release at 2–0 Ma was due to pressure generation that was exceeded the fracture‐sealing pressure in the source rocks.     

The Social and Economic Complexity of Ancient Jerusalem as Seen Through Choices in Lighting Oils

This paper presents and discusses the results of residue analysis conducted on 78 ceramic lamps found in archaeological excavations in ancient Jerusalem, in an attempt to identify the types of oils used and the reasons for their preferential choice. The oil lamps chosen for the study were taken from a variety of contexts, which represent the different periods during which Jerusalem was settled and the different sectors of the city. The results of the study show that even the most mundane activity of lighting using oil held within it social and economic choices, as mirrored in the different excavation areas.     

Hydrogeochemical dynamics affecting steam‐heated pools at El Chichón Crater (Chiapas – Mexico)

El Chichón is an active volcano located in the north‐western Chiapas, southern Mexico. The crater hosts a lake, a spring, named Soap Pool, emerging from the underlying volcanic aquifer and several mud pools/hot springs on the internal flanks of the crater which strongly interact with the current fumarolic system (steam‐heated pools). Some of these pools, the crater lake and a cold spring emerging from the 1982 pumice deposits, have been sampled and analysed. Water–volcanic gas interactions determine the heating (43–99°C) and acidification (pH 2–4) of the springs, mainly by H₂S oxidation. Significantly, in the study area, a significant NH₃ partial pressure has been also detected. Such a geochemically aggressive environment enhances alteration of the rock in situ and strongly increases the mineralization of the waters (and therefore their electrical conductivity). Two different mineralization systems were detected for the crater waters: the soap pool‐lake (Na⁺/Cl^? = 0.4, Na/Mg>10) and the crater mud pools (Na⁺/Cl^? > 10, Na/Mg < 4). A deep boiling, Na⁺‐K⁺‐Cl^?‐rich water reservoir generally influences the Soap Pool‐lake, while the mud pool is mainly dominated by water‐gas–rock interactions. In the latter case, conductivity of sampled water is directly proportional to the presence of reactive gases in solution. Therefore, chemical evolution proceeds through neutralization due to both rock alteration and bacterial oxidation of ammonium to nitrate. The chemical compositions show that El Chichón aqueous fluids, within the crater, interact with gases fed by a geothermal reservoir, without clear additions of deep magmatic fluids. This new geochemical dataset, together with previously published data, can be used as a base line with which to follow‐up the activity of this deadly volcano.