Mapping the possible occurrence of archaeological sites by Bayesian inference

Regional archaeological prospections are often done by field walking, where the location of the sampled fields is often determined by factors like feared disturbance or recent plowing. The resulting data configuration can be suboptimal for spatial prediction of the archaeological potential by geostatistical methods like kriging. As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian method to map the possible occurrence of archaeological finds and compare this to indicator regression kriging. Three types of predictive models were implemented in the Bayesian context following deductive, inductive and mixed approaches to use auxiliary geographical information in the mapping. After prediction of a validation set, it was concluded that the mixed approach gave the best results in terms of map quality, and that the kriging method performed poorly. Usage of data on the presence and the absence of archaeological finds is to be preferred above usage of presence data only. Furthermore, a method is presented that filters those parts of a predictive map that are not strongly supported by evidence.     

浅议网络舆论传播形成的基本规律

网络作为一种新型的大众传播媒介,在今天飞速发展的现代社会中已成为人与人、人与社会之间相互联系的不可或缺的桥梁与纽带。正确把握舆论宣传的角度,遵循舆论形成、发展、传播的规律,才能更好地利用好网络这一平台,为正确舆论的传播开通有效的渠道。     

论建立和巩固抗日民族统一战线的策略

抗日战争爆发后,中国共产党在科学分析战争的性质特点和国内阶级关系发生新变化的基础上,适时地提出和制定了一整套抗日民族统一战线的理论、政策和策略.这些策略主要有：倡导建立国内抗日民族统一战线,建立国际抗日统一战线的方针和对外政策,争取国际力量的支持;注意把原则的坚定性和策略的灵活性相结合,以调促推,以退为进;坚持独立自主和又联合又斗争的策略方针.由中国共产党倡导、组织和领导的抗日民族统一战线成为抗战胜利的决定性力量.     

War stories: British and American writers in/on the Italian front (1915–18)

In 1919 the British historian G. M. Trevelyan complained about the ‘not very large stock of English literature on Italy’s part in the war’ that had just ended, a phenomenon he attributed to ‘the mutual ignorance of the English-speaking and Italian peoples’. Nearly a hundred years later the situation seems to be no better. Secondary sources as there are devote only passing mention (if any) to the war stories that were put together by British and American writers who visited, served or worked as volunteers in the Italian front between 1915 and 1918. This article intends to give some details about the Italian front writing of these committed individuals, whose praiseworthy contribution to the war effort was, indeed, fighting the above-mentioned ignorance.     

THE γ-FUNCTION PSEUDODYNAMIC ALGORITHM

Practical applications of the γ-function dissipative explicit method to pseudodynamic tests are thoroughly investigated herein. Detailed implementation of this pseudodynamic algorithm is schematically sketched. Numerical experiments and verification tests strongly indicate that the γ-function dissipative explicit method can effectively filter out the spurious participation of high frequency responses while the lower mode responses can be obtained very accurately. In addition, error propagation analysis also shows that the γ-function dissipative explicit method possesses much better error propagation characteristics when compared to the Newmark explicit method. Thus, this pseudodynamic algorithm is very suitable for the test system where the responses are dominated by the low frequency modes and the high frequency responses are of no interest.     

Campaigning Against Apartheid: The Rise,Fall and Legacies of the South Africa United Front 1960–1962

ABSTRACT

The international struggle against apartheid that emerged during the second half of the twentieth century made the system of legalised racial oppression in South Africa one of the world’s great moral causes. Looking back at the anti-apartheid struggle, a defining characteristic was the scope of the worldwide efforts to condemn, co-ordinate, and isolate the country. In March 1961, the international campaign against apartheid achieved its first major success when Prime Minister Hendrik Verwoerd chose to withdraw South Africa from the Commonwealth following vocal protests at the Heads of State Summit held in London. As a consequence, it appeared albeit briefly, that external pressure would effectively serve as a catalyst for achieving far-reaching and immediate political change in South Africa. The global campaign, centred on South Africa remaining in the Commonwealth, was the first of its kind launched by South Africa’s national liberation movements, and signalled the beginning of thirty years of continued protest and lobbying. The contributions from one organisation that had a role in launching and co-ordinating this particular transnational campaign, the South Africa United Front (SAUF), an alliance of liberation groups, have been largely forgotten. Leading members of the SAUF claimed the organisation had a key part in South Africa’s subsequent exit from the Commonwealth, and the purpose of this article is to explore the validity of such assertions, as well as the role and impact it had in generating a groundswell of opposition to apartheid in the early 1960s. Although the SAUF’s demands for South Africa to leave the Commonwealth were ultimately fulfilled, the documentary evidence suggests that its campaigning activities and impact were not a decisive factor; however the long-term significance of the SAUF, and the position it had in the rise of the British Anti-Apartheid Movement (AAM) has not been fully recognised. As such, the events around the campaign for South Africa’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth act as a microcosm of developments that would define the international struggle against apartheid.     

Hong Kong under Chinese Sovereignty: Economic Relations with Mainland China, 1978-2007

A Hong Kong—based economic geographer presents an array of statistical data through 2007 that place Hong Kong among the world's leading financial, foreign trade, and air cargo handling centers. The paper's main focus is the economic relationship with Mainland China, which has grown and expanded since the change of the city's sovereignty in 1997. Included in the presentation is a review of economic integration before and after the handover by the UK to China, the pattern of cross-border investments and foreign trade, the growth of the logistics and tourism industries, and the challenges posed by changing economic relations, partly due to the rapid development of Hong Kong's hinterland. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O16, O18, O20, R11. 2 figures, 5 tables, 64 references.     

试论李维汉统一战线理论的几个特点

李维汉长期从事统一战线工作,对统一战线理论有诸多创造性研究,是党内外公认的统战理论家.其统一战线理论是毛泽东思想的重要组成部分.考察李维汉统战理论所体现出的时代性、规律性和创造性的特点,并且揭示李维汉深入实践、重视理论与实际相结合的科学精神,以及实事求是、与时俱进的理论品格,这对于在新的历史条件下推动统一战线工作的开拓与发展具有重要的指导意义.     

论1939-1940年中国建立遏制日本的远东国际联合阵线的努力

1939-1940年,中国为寻求国际援助,对英美开展一系列外交,试图建立遏制日本侵略扩张的远东国际联合阵线.由于英国必须将主要力量对付德国的进攻,美国尚未完全摆脱孤立主义的束缚,中国的这些努力并没有取得直接成果.但是,中国通过这些努力,加强了与英美为首的西方国家的联系,使它们对中国将抗日战争进行到底的决心有了更清楚的认识,从而为中国取得大规模国际援助创造了必要条件.随着国际社会对中国援助的全面加强,远东地区针对日本的国际联合阵线逐步形成.     

抗战初期王明右倾错误表现及其原因探析

1937年11月王明回国后,王明便以共产国际的钦差大臣自居。虽然他在坚持抗战和建立抗日民族统一战线方面发表了一系列比较正确的主张,但是在如何建立和巩固抗日民族统一战线方面却犯了系统的右倾错误。解读王明的右倾错误的具体表现及产生这些右倾错误的原因,对广大党员干部有重要的现实启迪作用。