What Can Causal Process Tracing Offer to Policy Studies? A Review of the Literature

Causal process tracing (CPT) has emerged as an important method of causal inference in qualitative social science research, most notably in case study research designs. There is now a considerable literature on the aims, philosophical groundings, and methods of process tracing. This paper reviews the CPT literature to assess what new directions it may suggest for policy studies. The first part of the paper sets out the methodological advantages CPT offers in building and testing theories of policy change, most notably in supporting a theoretical pluralism to address the problem of complexity in policy studies. Building on recent scholarship across the social sciences, the second part examines step by step the recently minted “best practice” for undertaking CPT in policy studies. This part includes discussion of the possible pitfalls of CPT as a method; common errors involved in its use are set out and minimization strategies offered. In particular, while acknowledging the usefulness of Bayesian tests for causality as heuristic devices, we emphasize the limitations of applying such tests in practice. Possible correctives are suggested. The final part of the paper speculates more generally on the potential of CPT to improve our investigation of patterns of policy change over time.     

同光年间州县官选任制度的嬗变

同治光绪年间,由于捐纳、保举的扩张,州县候选人员激增,流品混杂。与此同时,各省督抚选用州县官常常不拘文法,突破成例。在上述背景下,清廷力图从多方面进行整顿,但多不能行。这一时期州县官选任制度的变化虽然只是在旧制基础上的渐变,然而这些问题却成为清末新政时期铨选制度改革的内在动因。     

NORBERT ELIAS,THE CIVILIZING PROCESS: SOCIOGENETIC AND PSYCHOGENETIC INVESTIGATIONS—AN OVERVIEW AND ASSESSMENT

Norbert Elias's The Civilizing Process, which was published in German in 1939 and first translated into English in two volumes in 1978 and 1982, is now widely regarded as one of the great works of twentieth‐century sociology. This work attempted to explain how Europeans came to think of themselves as more “civilized” than their forebears and neighboring societies. By analyzing books about manners that had been published between the thirteenth and eighteenth centuries, Elias observed changing conceptions of shame and embarrassment with respect to, among other things, bodily propriety and violence. To explain those developments, Elias examined the interplay among the rise of state monopolies of power, increasing levels of economic interconnectedness among people, and pressures to become attuned to others over greater distances that led to advances in identifying with others in the same society irrespective of social origins. Elias's analysis of the civilizing process was not confined, however, to explaining changing social bonds within separate societies. The investigation also focused on the division of Europe into sovereign states that were embroiled in struggles for power and security. This article provides an overview and analysis of Elias's principal claims in the light of growing interest in this seminal work in sociology. The analysis shows how Elias defended higher levels of synthesis in the social sciences to explain relations between “domestic” and “international” developments, and changes in social structure and in the emotional lives of modern people. Elias's investigation, which explained long‐term processes of development over several centuries, pointed to the limitations of inquiries that concentrate on short‐term intervals. Only by placing short‐term trends in long‐term perspective could sociologists understand contemporary developments. This article maintains that Elias's analysis of the civilizing process remains an exemplary study of long‐term developments in Western societies over the last five centuries.     

《毛诗》经学化的过程及其特点与得失

本文主要论述三个问题：一、西汉前期,有经学的指导思想,但没有《诗经》经学的范本。即《子夏序》是不存在的,并从六个方面加以证明。二、《毛诗》经学化的过程。三、《毛诗》经学化的模式及其特点与得失。     

E-mail Communication and the Policy Process in the State Legislature

E-mail has changed the policy process in state legislatures because political actors now have a new way to present their message to state legislators. What little research has been conducted on this topic examines e-mail communication generally and does not compare results by policy actor. Using an original survey of state legislators in eight states, we test for systematic effects of variables on general e-mail views and for effects specific to particular policy actors. We find that legislators have a nuanced approach to e-mail usage in the policy process with their assessment of its impact differing significantly for constituents, intermediary groups, and policy insiders. Only gender consistently shapes legislators' beliefs about e-mail with all groups, but institutional features, legislator characteristics, and legislator beliefs shape views on e-mail with different target groups. Clearly, legislators are attuned to the audience communicating via e-mail, and they value e-mail with each group differently.     

青海历史文化的产生及演变

准确的文化定位,对于一个地区文化历史渊源的追溯、文化内涵的发掘具有重要的意义。作者通过对西羌文化在青海大地上的发展历程的论述,认为西羌文化更能反映青海文化的产生以及在相当长历史时期内发展演变的情况。     

两晋南北朝涪陵郡置废、州属、领县杂考

古今沿革地理著述中,对两晋南北朝时期涪陵郡的置废、州属、领县等情况的记述,多有不实之处。实际情况是,西晋后期涪陵郡已由梁州还属益州,至南齐时仍属益州。涪陵郡在成汉前期仍由晋朝控制,在成汉后期成为争战之地,建置难以持久,最后被少数民族首领控制。东晋平定成汉后,在巴郡枳县设涪陵郡,属于侨郡,但不久恢复了实郡,以后各朝仍置涪陵郡。晋、宋涪陵郡的领县数目难以确认,但涪陵县及其以北的汉葭、汉平县当为其辖县。梁朝时,当地少数民族又脱离朝廷控制,梁至北周涪陵郡仅领汉平一县。涪陵郡曾寄治于巴郡枳县,但枳县始终都属于巴郡,而不曾为涪陵郡属县。     

On the correlation between the formation of the “Maowusu Desert” and land use in Liuhu sub-prefecture in the Tang dynasty

The historical changes of the “Maowusu Desert” can be divided into three phases: the late Tang dynasty phase, the Song-Yuan-Ming dynasty phase, and the late Ming dynasty to the present phase. Different parts of the desert were formed in different times, with the northwestern part being the earliest to form. As all evidence shows, the Maowusu Desert in its early stage is believed to have taken shape largely around the ancient site of the You state during the years of Tianbao in the Tang dynasty, which is nowadays the eastern half of the Etuoke banner and Prior-Etuoke banner. The formation of the initial Maowusu Desert is not attributed to the so-called over-cultivation from farming but to the long-time exceedingly quartered husbandry starting from the 4th year of the Zhenguan to the years of Tianbao in the Tang dynasty, which resulted in the destruction of the ecology of the natural grassland. __________ Translated from: Shaanxi Shifan Daxue Xuebao 陕西师范大学学报 (Shaanxi Normal University Journal), No.3, 2004     

传统农区城乡体系空间结构演变及其形成机制研究——以河南省周口市为例

以传统农区周口市为研究对象，利用聚落斑块面积和相关社会经济指标，探讨了周口市城乡体系空间结构演变规律与作用机制。研究发现，周口市城乡体系空间结构演变呈现低端均衡结构（1973年）-点轴结构（1990年）-中心外围结构（2000年）-圈层结构（2015年）的演进过程，每种结构对城乡要素流动的方向和作用各不相同，从而使城乡体系的空间结构各不相同。交通导向机制是影响城乡体系空间结构演变的早期主导因素，促进城镇体系空间结构不断拓展，并带动乡村体系空间结构不断更迭；特色产业是影响城乡体系空间结构的新机制，助推城乡体系空间结构进一步完善；政府作用机制有效地引导城乡体系空间拓展方向，推动城乡空间格局结构性地演变。     

The Lower Paleolithic of the Arabian Peninsula: Occupations,Adaptations, and Dispersals

To understand major processes of human evolution during the Plio- Pleistocene, it is necessary to consider the available evidence from key regions of the Old World. The Arabian peninsula is often depicted as a key geographic route for hominin dispersals in Out of Africa models, although the available primary evidence is rarely cited. And yet, significant Lower Paleolithic assemblages have been identified in many parts of the peninsula, including in areas near the Strait of Bab al Mandab. The presence of Oldowan-like and Acheulean assemblages may reflect at least two major dispersals outside of Africa. Acheulean localities are particularly abundant on the Arabian peninsula, and variations in stone tool manufacturing techniques and tool-type frequencies may reflect temporal changes in assemblages. Although there is good potential to chronometrically date sites in the Arabian peninsula, absolute dating methods have not been adequately applied, most temporal reconstructions relying on typotechnological change. If the Arabian peninsula is to provide solid evidence for understanding hominin adaptation and dispersal patterns, future fieldwork in secure depositional contexts needs to be conducted to overcome current limits in dating and environmental reconstructions.