西部十二省、自治区、直辖市旅游竞争力的组合评价

对一个地区的旅游竞争力进行评价有助于客观地了解该地区旅游业的发展状况,而科学合理的评价依赖于评价指标和评价方法的选择。本文提出了合理选择指标的原则,并在所构建的旅游竞争力评价指标体系中引入了＂软＂指标。由于单一评价模型的评价结果各不相同,本文引入组合评价模型对西部十二省、自治区、直辖市的旅游竞争力进行评价,然后采用斯皮尔曼等级相关系数对组合评价结果进行检验,结果显示本文采用的组合评价方法与其它评价方法的一致性最高,说明该方法能比较客观综合地反映旅游竞争力状况。最后,通过聚类分析,进一步验证了本文方法的有效性。     

再谈三线建设的评价问题

20世纪六七十年代进行的三线建设,虽已过去几十年了,但对它的评价依然存在颇多争议。对三线建设作出分析评价,确非易事,很大程度上归因于其特殊性。有鉴于此,有必要提出三线建设二重性这一命题,即它既是旨在应对战争危险的特殊政治行为,又是谋求改善生产力布局的一般经济行为。由于战争没有绝对确实性,只有相对确实性,因此政府的经济行为并不总是取决于经济学原则,还要考虑社会政治的要求。与此同时,评价三线建设得失时,还要面对其经济分析的特殊因素和难以避免的模糊性。总之,三线建设得失相比,得是长期起作用的因素,是国家战略利益所系;失是得的必要代价,从根本上说是外部敌对势力强加给中国人的,也是暂时的,终归会得到补偿。     

UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: Case study for India

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections.     

基于多层次灰色方法的旅游地产项目开发风险评价模型及实证研究

旅游地产是将旅游业和房地产两大产业融合而衍生出的一种新型地产开发模式,目前已经引起各地政府的高度重视,但在实际的开发与运行中存在着很大的风险性。因此本文对于旅游地产项目的开发风险从量化的角度进行分析评价,通过构建旅游地产项目开发风险的评价指标体系,以及采用主观的层次分析法与客观的变异系数法相结合的方法确定综合权重,以此建立起基于多层次灰色模型的旅游地产项目开发风险评价模型。并以A企业为例进行了实证研究,结果显示A企业的旅游地产项目开发风险处于一般风险与较低风险之间,适合进行项目的开发与投资。     

The Myth of Reserpine-Induced Depression: Role in the Historical Development of the Monoamine Hypothesis

For five decades it has been generally accepted that reserpine, an antihypertensive and antipsychotic drug, causes depression. The discovery that reserpine depletes brain monoamines was an important factor in the development of the monoamine hypothesis of depression, and it continues to be widely cited in support of this hypothesis. The present paper argues that, contrary to prevailing belief, reserpine is not depressogenic. The reason for perpetuation of this myth is reluctance to discard the monoamine hypothesis. This hypothesis ushered the modern biochemical paradigm into psychiatry and is still of great importance. It serves as a heuristic to guide research, it enhances psychiatry’s prestige, and it helps to validate and promote drug therapy for depression and other mental disorders.     

The rise of cultural landscapes

The new interest in cultural landscapes is forcing a reappraisal of concepts of countryside heritage. First the traditional split between cultural and natural values is challenged. Second, modern landscape studies emphasise the subjectivity of landscape assessment, and this is subverting the former tendency to aspire to objectivity in evaluation. The acceptance of ‘associative’ value in landscape is an indicator of this. Modern landscape studies also emphasise the interrelationships between processes and aspects of value, and this is encouraging specialists to communicate across disciplinary frontiers. The desire by ecologists in the mid‐1980s to have cultural landscapes inscribed on the World Heritage list caused a re‐assessment of the World Heritage Criteria, and an initiative by ICOMOS brought this process to a conclusion in 1992. However the reappraisal of concepts of countryside value imply that there are many other philosophical and practical matters still to be resolved.     

城镇化水平差异的模糊综合评价——以西安市临潼区为例

在制定城乡发展规划时需评估区域内不同乡镇城镇化水平差异,而单一人口城镇化指标不能满足城镇化水平差异分析的要求,特别难于评价农业人口比重较大的小城镇之间城镇化水平的真实差异。采用模糊综合评价的方法,针对人口、产值、产业发展和交通设施等指标及其相应的二级指标进行城镇化水平差异综合评价。在评价过程中,利用相关统计数据,来比较西安市临潼区内各乡镇城镇化水平的差异。通过结果划分得到具有相对比较意义的核心城区、中心城镇、重点乡镇和一般乡镇四级的城镇体系。为临潼区城镇体系发展规划等工作提供一定的依据。     

中国省级区域餐饮业竞争力的结构方程模型

提升餐饮业竞争力日渐引起政府重视,但学界对餐饮业竞争力的理论研究仍有待深入。本文采用结构方程模型方法,对中国省级区域餐饮业竞争力进行了理论和实证研究,验证了生产要素、关联产业、需求条件和企业结构对餐饮业竞争力具有直接的、正向的、依次减弱的影响,并由此构建了中国省级区域餐饮业竞争力的结构方程模型和评价方法。     

基于层次分析法的广元千佛崖摩崖造像病害程度量化评价

受多种自然因素和人为因素的共同作用,广元千佛崖石窟病害发育普遍,现有研究主要集中在病害种类调查与成因分析方面,对石窟病害程度的量化评价较少。本次研究以20座盛唐时期龛窟为研究对象,采用传统的病害调查方法明确病害种类,利用层次分析法对病害数据进行分析,最终确定15种常见病害在石窟劣化程度中的权重,量化表征拟研究对象的病害程度。结果显示,1)15种常见病害可分为两大类,一类为结构性病害,另一类为非结构性病害,15种病害在石窟劣化过程中权重不同;2)20座盛唐龛窟中,4龛保存较好,11龛保存状况一般,3龛保存状态较差,2龛保存状态差,与实地调查结果相符。本次研究量化表征了15种现存病害的影响权重和20座龛窟的保存现状,有助于快速有效判断石窟病害程度的轻重缓急,为保护措施的制定和优化提供依据。     

旅游目的地文化变迁量化评价方法及实证研究

为评价旅游目的地文化变迁的内容、方向、程度并掌握其变迁原因,本文设计了旅游目的地文化变迁评价指标体系,提出采用德尔菲法和AHP法确定各项指标的权重,并对青岛啤酒文化的变迁进行了实证研究,详细说明了旅游目的地文化变迁量化评价的方法。