Logistic增长模型在游客流量预测中的应用——以贵州省绥阳县为例

旅游开发要以市场为导向,以资源为基础,以产品为核心,以效益为目标。游客流量的准确预测对旅游资源的开发具有很重要的指导作用。现在游客流量预测已经有了一个比较成熟的方法系统,但这些方法大多针对于开发得比较成熟且具有一定的游客数据积累的景区。本文以贵州绥阳县双河溶洞国家地质公园为例,尝试将种群增长的Logistic曲线与景区的环境容量相结合的方法,来预测其未来一定时段的游客流量,得到了较为满意的结果,对国内其它类似旅游景区开发具有借鉴意义。     

环境管制措施对区域环境与贸易的约束效应

环境管制是指各国在国际贸易中为了实现环境与贸易的协调关系,以环保为目的而采取的贸易限制措施,主要包括课征环境进口附加税、限制或禁止进出口、推行国内加工和生产方法、实行环境标志制度、政府环境补贴等5种类型。本文总结了在全球化背景下环境管制措施产生的原因及施行内容,在此基础上就其对区域环境与贸易的约束效应做了分析,旨在为我国突破"绿色壁垒"提供警示和借鉴。     

基于Amos的环境地方性与游客地方感之间的关系机理分析——以西安大明宫国家考古遗址公园为例

本文以西安大明宫国家考古遗址公园为例,基于空间形态要素、公园景观要素、服务配套要素、地方性、地方感5个潜在变量,构建地方性与地方感之间的因果关系结构方程模型.通过预设观测变量因子设计量表,发放200份调查问卷,回收181份有效问卷,再运用SPSS建立有效分析数据库,并基于Amos7.0平台进行结构方程模型的验证性分析,从而探讨大明宫国家考古遗址公园空间环境营造的地方性特征与游客地方感之间的关系路径及运行机理.     

Skiing Less Often in a Warmer World: Attitudes of Tourists to Climate Change in an Australian Ski Resort

Climate change will affect tourism destinations that are dependent on natural resources, such as snow. Currently there is limited research into attitudes, intentions and actual visitation patterns of skiers in response to reduced snow cover. Therefore the awareness of, and attitudes towards, climate change of 351 ski tourists were assessed in the largest ski resort in Australia in 2007, repeating a survey conducted in 1996. Ninety percent of skiers in 2007 would ski less often in Australian resorts if the next five years had low natural snow, up from 75% of skiers surveyed in 1996: 69% would ski less often, 5% would give up and 16% would ski at the same levels but overseas. Nearly all skiers thought that climate change would affect the ski industry (87% compared with 78% in 1996), and that this would occur sooner than in the 1996 survey. Visitation in a poor snow year (2006, +0.85°C average annual temperature, 54% less natural snow) was −13.6% of the long-term average, indicating poor natural snow resulted in decreased visitation, despite extensive use of snow making. The implications of changes in climate conditions and tourist attitudes for Australian ski resorts are assessed including for snow making and summer tourism.     

Framed for Compromise? The Role of Bill Framing in State Legislative Behavior on Natural Gas Policy

State legislative decision making on natural gas policy has become a balancing act, as legislators are forced to grapple with tensions between economically beneficial policies and environmental impacts. Despite increased public attention to the benefits and costs related to hydraulic fracturing, there has been little scholarly attention paid to how policy framing affects legislator behavior on this issue. We analyze recorded votes on bills relating to natural gas policy in Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico between 1999 and 2008; a time period spanning the recent boom. Using a novel database of bill frames, we create a ratio measure that accounts for the proportion of environmental to economic arguments within each piece of legislation. We find status quo–challenging, anti‐development policies can receive bipartisan support, as long as economic frames balance or are greater than environmental frames. Framing natural gas as a win‐win scenario where economic benefit and environmental protection can be achieved simultaneously is an effective legislative strategy. Using the case of natural gas policy, this study demonstrates bill framing substantively affects state legislator vote choice and implies bipartisan compromise is possible given the right balance of frames.     

Latinos and Environmental Justice: Examining the Link between Degenerative Policy,Political Representation,and Environmental Policy Implementation

The theory of social construction and policy design is insightful for exploring the circumstances in which the allocation of policy benefits and burdens is attributed to the feed‐forward effect of degenerative policy that institutionalizes bias and reinforces the prevailing categorization and embedded social meaning regarding target populations. However, this theoretical framework has not been broadly adopted to analyze the environment‐related phenomena. With a nationwide, block‐group‐level sample, this study examines the extent to which degenerative policies pertaining to immigrants influence state agencies' environmental regulatory outputs for predominantly Latino communities. Results show that in the states with moderately to most restrictive immigrant policy and high levels of Latino representation in legislatures, the rigorousness of government agencies' compliance monitoring activities decreases for Latino neighborhoods of environmental justice concern, as states' policy stance toward immigrants becomes more unfavorable. More Latino elected officials do not bolster policy implementation efforts for the vulnerable communities or offset the backlash effect of immigrant policy.     

Envisioning Future Landscapes in the Environmentally Sensitive Areas of Scotland

Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) designated under EC Structure Regulation 797/85 now cover 1.4 million ha of the Scottish countryside and are likely to make a substantial contribution to the regulation of landscape change. Visual changes to landscapes with (policy on) and without (policy off) the ESA programme in two Scottish ESA areas, Breadalbane and the Machair, are predicted through impact-assessment procedures and computer manipulation of photographic images. The methodological requirements for such predictions are outlined and substantial differences in landscape characteristics under policy on/off scenarios are revealed. Such approaches to landscape change are an essential foundation for the development of environmental cost-benefit analyses and will contribute to public consultation processes.     

敦煌资料中所见讲究卫生爱护环境的习俗

敦煌文献及壁画中珍藏着一批讲究公共卫生、爱护环境的史料,生动地体现了唐宋时期人们对良好卫生习俗追求。这些习俗包括爱护水源、注重水质,营造良好的居住环境,勤洗衣着、梳头刷牙,沐浴健身,修建厕所、禁止随地便溺,禁止随意食用野味和生肉等。揭示、探析这些习俗不仅具有重要的学术价值,而且对于今天培育人们良好的卫生习惯、防止疫病传播、增强人民体质健康、营造美好的城乡环境、促进生态文明建设,亦具有积极的史鉴意义。     

'Something Happened': The Relevance of the Risk Society for Describing the Siting Process for a Municipal Landfill

This paper investigates reactions to a proposed municipal solid waste facility in Southern Ontario supposed to be a low-level, low probability risk using the risk society framework, developed independently by Beck (1992a, 1992b) and Giddens (1990, 1991). Residents often view risk from environmental hazards as high despite expert assurances that risks are low. The appeal of risk society as a general framework is that it connects quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and the social construction of risk (SCR) to show how individuals and social structures reflexively alter and are altered by conflicts over (actual/potential) technological hazards. The analysis involves 30 in-depth face-to-face interviews with residents in Caledon, Ontario, contextualized by interviews with proponent experts (n=4) from the government organization responsible for conducting the siting process. The risk society framework, although developed primarily to describe the effects of high-consequence global hazards, seems well suited to describing local level, low-consequence hazards. The siting process involved a series of fateful moments which upset people's security in particular ways of life. The proposed landfill and the process itself threatened the very nature of what people valued and expected from their community. However, this study raises a concern that the risk society played out at the local/regional level may exacerbate inequalities in the distribution of risks relative to benefits from technological environmental hazards. This stands in contrast with Beck's (1992a) notion that the risks from hazards are equitably distributed within the risk society.     

The tropical backyard: performing environmental difference

This paper extends debates investigating the importance of domestic yards and gardens in shaping identities and the everyday practices and performances of human–nature interaction in a tropical city. It presents findings from a pilot study investigating backyards in a small but ethnically diverse neighbourhood in Cairns, Australia—a site that raises questions about the normative constructions of “nature” in much of the literature. The paper explores how Cairns residents make sense of their backyards, especially in terms of how they relate to them as “tropical”. Living in Cairns means managing excess water during the rainy season, dealing with new kinds of pests, and being critically conscious of the temperate bias of Australian garden retailers and house/garden magazines. The paper frames these experiences within a longer tradition of tropicality or a (western) way of making sense of/imagining tropical regions and environmental difference. In so doing, it opens up a new cultural geography of the suburbs, displaces normative constructions of “nature” and shows how the legacies of European colonialism still play out in a dominant Australian culture.