旅游信息来源类型对消费者行为意图的影响

如何高效利用和改变消费者对信息来源的判别特点,并使其在营销战略设计中发挥作用,是营销人员重点关注的现实命题。通过了解消费者对信息来源类型的利用程度,营销人员可以运用高效方式来设计和影响传播渠道。本研究在实体化旅游信息来源类型的基础上,通过构建量表实测,定量化分析了旅游信息来源类型对消费者行为意图的影响。结果显示:(1)消费者认知对旅游信息来源类型有明确的界定和划分,不同类型的旅游信息来源会呈现规律的聚类现象;(2)人际传播的旅游信息来源对消费者行为意图仍然发挥着独特的影响作用;(3)有效阅读时间是旅游信息来源类型对消费者行为意图产生影响的重要限制因素;(4)电视和休闲媒介类旅游信息传播效果对消费者行为意图影响不大。该结论对旅游营销广告投放及营销渠道选择均具有一定的参照意义;(5)人口结构特征中,职业和月收入差异对旅游信息来源类型选择影响较大;性别、年龄、教育程度及年出游次数对旅游信息来源类型选择影响较小。     

School Choice as a Latent Variable: Estimating the “Complier Average Causal Effect” of Vouchers in Charlotte

Randomized field trials of school voucher policy interventions face major statistical hurdles in the measurement of a voucher effect on student achievement. Selection bias undermines the benefits of randomization when the treatment, a random offer of a voucher, is declined by participants who systematically differ from those who accept. This article argues that the complier average causal effect (CACE) is the parameter of interest in voucher evaluations. As an example, the CACE is estimated using data from a small, one‐year field trial of vouchers in Charlotte, NC. In this estimation, voucher impacts in Charlotte are positive, but appear to be moderated by the probability of compliance. For math achievement, maximum likelihood CACE estimates are smaller and insignificant compared to intention to treat and instrumental variable estimates of mean treatment effects.     

乾隆时期宫廷瓷器修补

陶瓷修复史是中国陶瓷史和手工艺史重要内容之一。随着制瓷的发达和藏古瓷之风的盛行,陶瓷器修复在明清时期发展出适用各阶层需求的多样工艺。至乾隆时期,酷爱陶瓷的清高宗更是直接指示了宫廷陶瓷的修补、修复和修整。本文界定了乾隆时期清宫瓷器修缮的范围概念,试图分析以《活计档》为主的清宫档案,与传世实物相印证,还原当时陶瓷器修复的工艺方法、步骤过程,以及修复地点和工匠的情况。通过修补痕迹和工艺细节,修正和补充了对部分清宫藏高古瓷器的认识。乾隆皇帝对不同的陶瓷器选择了迥异的处理方式,体现其审美好恶、品鉴素养和性情意识。     

The Lower Palaeolithic on the northern plateau of the Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Atapuerca,Ambrona and La Maya I): a technological analysis of the cutting edge and weight of artefacts. Developing an hypothetical model

This article analyses the relationship between the weight and cutting edge of lithic artefacts from the main Lower Palaeolithic sites on the northern plateau (Meseta) of the Iberian Peninsula. The weight and cutting edge of a tool determine its cutting ability and the amount of force it is capable of, making them extremely important aspects of study to further our understanding of the potential capacity for human intervention in the environment. However, the analysis of these features has not received much attention in the ongoing debate on the Palaeolithic era in Europe. This study argues that the quantitative and qualitative technological analysis of these two aspects is of fundamental importance in determining the potential of lithic assemblages.     

Punishment Policy in the American States from 1890 to 2008: Convergence,Divergence, Synchronous Change,and Feed‐Forward Effects

This analysis of the patterns of change in the use of incarceration by the American states from 1890 through 2008 focuses on multiple themes particularly relevant to an understanding of policy arenas in which the social constructions of target populations play an important role. Specifically, the study examines whether the states have adopted more similar incarceration levels over time (converged), whether they tend to change in the same direction at the same time (synchronous change), and whether they tend to stay in the same relative positions vis‐à‐vis one another, such that the historical policy position has long‐term implications for later policy positions (“feed‐forward” effects). The results indicate that, in spite of a century of social, political, and economic integration, the policy positions of the states have not exhibited a sustained convergence toward a common level of incarceration, but have undergone cycles, with some periods of convergence followed by periods of divergence. Change has generally been synchronous—as states tend to move in the same direction at the same time as if propelled by national forces even though incarceration levels are determined by state and local policy and the use of discretion by criminal justice officials. The results also indicate a profound “feed‐forward” effect in that the position of the states vis‐à‐vis one another historically has substantial predictive power for their position in subsequent years.     

Securing Landscape Resilience to Tropical Cyclones in Australia's Wet Tropics under a Changing Climate: Lessons from Cyclones Larry (and Yasi)

Tropical cyclones are part of the ecosystem dynamics of rainforests in the Wet Tropics of Australia, and intact forest areas show remarkable ability to recover from cyclonic disturbance. However, forest remnants, littoral rainforests, and riparian vegetation have been shown to be particularly susceptible to cyclonic winds and post‐disturbance weed invasion with consequences for their long‐term conservation values. I evaluate the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones impacting the Wet Tropics region since records began in 1858. The recent Category 4 cyclones featured in this study, Larry and Yasi, had return intervals of about one in 70 years. I then discuss the natural resource management (NRM) lessons from Cyclone Larry and put forward practical recommendations on how authorities should deal with natural resources in the clean‐up and recovery phases. I argue that natural resources must be treated as valuable commodities by including their protection and rehabilitation in the same way that human livelihoods, infrastructure and industry are covered in disaster management planning. This requires NRM issues to be included in disaster response policy and legislation, together with ensuring that structures are in place to mitigate the effects of cyclones on natural resources. There is a general consensus that tropical cyclone intensity will increase under climate change while frequency will decrease slightly. This has profound implications for the long‐term sustainability of ecosystems in the Wet Tropics. There is a real risk of a phase shift to vegetation types dominated by disturbance species, including weeds, at the expense of cyclone intolerant species. It is therefore important that we begin to build more cyclone resilient landscapes to reduce the vulnerability of our remaining rainforest habitats and primary production systems. Securing landscape resilience requires greater NRM investment in key areas, including landscape connectivity, river repair, protecting coastal assets and cyclone resilient farms. While climate change poses a long‐term threat to the rainforests of the region, we need to focus on more immediate pressures affecting our remaining biodiversity, notably clearing of native habitat, habitat fragmentation and degradation, and biosecurity issues.     

确立中国饭店集团的品牌优势

本阐述品牌在企业所有、企业与具体产品(服务)三方面的显示以及品牌与消费的关系。章对支撑饭店品牌力的质量、特色、情感、命名四大核心要素进行了论述,指出建立布局结构合理和品牌高度统一的集团是我国饭店品牌优势提升的重要标志。     

从组织创新角度论饭店客房产品竞争力的提升

客房产品日益成为当今饭店业竞争的焦点.笔者认为,我国饭店企业若想从根本上增强客房产品的竞争实力,提高经营效率,必须从组织设计和制度创新着手.首先,应将客房业务区分为核心业务和非核心业务,并运用差异化策略、低成本策略或聚焦策略来确立客房产品的核心优势;其次,为充分发挥核心竞争力,可以将客房非核心业务外包,本文阐述了非核心业务外包的理由和应处理好的关键环节,并重点探讨了客房清扫业务的外包管理制度;业务外包战略势必引起组织结构的变革,文章尝试对客房组织结构进行了再设计,同时认为必须做好服务授权和信息共享;最后,强调了建立高效的工作团队的必要性,对团队组建的模式提出若干种建议.