2018年湖北省旅游供需的空间结构特征分析——以A级景区为例

以湖北省内A级景区和客源地为研究对象,运用数理统计和空间计量方法系统探究旅游供需的空间结构特征.结果表明:①湖北省旅游供需要素具有较强的集聚分布态势,供需状况整体较差且区域差异显著,呈现明显的资源和人口指向性;②客源密集的江汉平原腹地和交通不便、高等级景区稀疏的外围边缘山区供需联系强度较低,高等级景区集聚的区域供需联系...     

旅行社产品需求个性化和网络采购

本从旅行社产品原材料的特点和旅游需求个性化趋势对旅游产品的影响的角度,分析了利用网络技术进行旅行社产品生产的必要性,并探讨了旅行社网上采购的B2B模式。     

新世纪旅游的热点:远洋海岛旅游——上海、海口、三亚市场调查报告

上海和海口、三亚等地的问卷调查表明:远洋海岛旅游将成为新世纪旅游的热点之一;远洋海岛旅游者将以中高等文化程度的中青年为主体,消费趋向中高档,普遍要求旅游项目参与性强,有一定的文化含量和较高的品位.     

基于机器学习技术的旅游方式偏好研究——以南京市为例

从人口特征和个人价值两方面探讨引起旅游方式偏好差异的关键因素。首次采用新型机器学习算法C4.5-RulePANE对以南京市民为样本的调查数据进行分析建模,从中获取反映偏好团队游或自助游的典型人群特征的预测规则。研究表明:(1)在人口特征变量中,收入、家庭生命周期、学历对旅游方式偏好起到重要的影响作用;(2)个人价值变量对旅游方式偏好亦起到重要的影响作用;(3)利用机器学习技术建立多维因素到目标概念的非线性映射模型,比仅对一维因素分析更准确、全面;(4)通过建模能够获取反映人们旅游方式偏好的预测规则,该规则从多个角度对偏好团队游或自助游的典型人群特征进行描述。     

Drought is normal: the socio-technical evolution of drought and water demand in England and Wales, 1893–2006

Water stress is becoming a permanent feature of life in Britain and other developed societies, and attempts to change ‘consumer behaviour’ are at the forefront of strategies for sustainability. This paper combines historical, geographical and sociological perspectives on the evolution of drought and water demand in modern England and Wales. Droughts have natural properties but their course, size and distribution is also the result of an interplay between governance, social norms and everyday practices. Focusing on seven significant droughts between 1893 and 2006, this article traces changing understandings of ‘normal’ water consumption and ‘rational’ demand and relates them to the evolving socio-technical management of water and identities of ‘the consumer’. We challenge the idea of a watershed between private supply (associated with passive ‘customers’) and public ownership (associated with active ‘citizens’). While private systems facilitated self-organised civic action more easily than public supply, the ideal of a citizen-contract blinded systems of public provision to the problem of expanding water use. An interdisciplinary analysis of droughts in the past offers lessons for the debate about sustainable consumption today.     

The Sound of Silence: Valuing Acoustics in Heritage Conservation

This paper explores the reasons behind the omission of historic acoustic values from heritage assessments in Australia. Best practice dictates that all cultural heritage values associated with significant places should be assessed in order to make informed conservation and management decisions. However, the multi‐sensory nature of aesthetics has been reframed in guidance documentation in ways that run counter to the primary frame. Conventions that have developed around the way places are assessed also work against comprehensive identification of values. As a result, the consideration of aesthetics in cultural heritage is limited to contemporary visual qualities. Furthermore, because the assessment of historic value takes a diachronic rather than synchronic approach, we have little knowledge of the places past communities valued for the sounds they experienced there. Research into landscape preference and acoustic ecology highlights the importance of identifying the inherent acoustic dimension of places and the role sound plays in developing a sense of place. Two landscape areas in Western Australia's south‐west with historic acoustic values, the Boranup Sand Patch and the Lower Reaches of the Blackwood River, illustrate how historic soundscapes can provide insightful contrasts and resonances with contemporary values, and how vulnerable such places are when the sound of place is overlooked in land management policies.     

TOD对北京市居民通勤影响及其机制研究

TOD被广泛认为是一种可持续城市发展模式,同时对于促进绿色交通也具有重要意义。但是,学术界对TOD的交通影响研究仍然存在争论。本文以北京为例,通过实际调查,采用定量研究方法,对地铁站周边居住居民的通勤出行方式进行了研究。在控制了居民社会经济属性和出行距离等因素的情况下,回归分析结果表明,地铁站周边地区的土地利用混合度、接驳公交服务、模式通勤时效等对居民通勤出行方式具有显著影响。高土地混合度和便捷交通接驳服务能够提高居民选择公交或非机动出行的比例;由于各模式时效差异,长距离通勤的居民更加倾向于选择地铁出行。同时,TOD模式能够提高需求出行导向的居民绿色通勤的可能性。     

‘Missing girls’ in China and India: trends and policy challenges

Child sex ratios plateaued in China between the censuses of 2000 and 2010, a major change from decades of sharp rises. In India they rose by 1.4 per cent during the intercensal period 2001–2011, which is a much slower rate of increase than in previous decades, and reported son preference is falling. In both countries, the largest declines are in regions that had the highest child sex ratios earlier, while some surrounding regions show rises. State policies to reduce sex-selection through offering financial incentives or banning the use of sex-selective technology show limited evidence of effectiveness. In China, the overall level of sex-selection remained stable, while the census data show a sharp shift towards sex-selection at the first birth—likely related to the mode of implementation of the program to reduce sex-selection. Studies indicate that media outreach can be very effective at changing norms and behaviors, including reducing son preference. Reducing the demand for sex-selection may offer the most effective long-term solution.     

Simulating changes in tourism demand: a case study of two German regions

Travel behaviour is shaped by the complex interaction of a variety of societal, economic, ecological and political drivers that undergo rapid changes. This poses continually new challenges on destinations which need to adapt to altering conditions. Significant changes of influencing factors might lead to shifts in tourism flows in temporal and/or spatial dimensions. This study investigates how German tourists’ destination choices develop under changing framework conditions. It furthermore rates the impact of influencing factors such as socio-demographic and socio-economic aspects on changes in tourism demand using an agent-based model. The interactions among 15 million tourists and 109 European destinations are simulated under three different scenarios. Destinations included in the model develop in different ways in regard to tourist arrivals until 2030. The results indicate that the number of tourist arrivals will develop divergently in the investigated regions until 2030 and that some market segments will undergo changes in seasonality: the model shows a growth in arrivals for many city destinations, cultural as well as sports and active tourism destinations. It indicates a trend towards equalisation in the segments sun and sea tourism, city and cultural tourism with a shift from summer months to spring and autumn towards 2030. They furthermore imply that demographic change dominates altering tourism demand in the source market and that related changes in travel preferences are the most urgent challenge for destinations.     

Women’s gender role attitudes and fertility intentions of having a second child: survey findings from Shaanxi Province of China

China is a country with a unique history of gender traditions and birth-control regulations. Traditional gender role attitudes, closely related to son preference, exert entrenched influence on the fertility intentions and behaviours of women in China. In recent years, despite the fact that employment characteristics and educational attainment of women have caught up with men, China has witnessed a resurgence of patriarchal Confucian tradition. Gender relations in the private sphere are increasingly regulated by traditional gender norms. Considering the declining fertility in China and recent fertility policy adjustments, this paper analyses the varying effects of gender role attitudes on fertility intentions of women under different birth control policies, utilising data from 1,422 questionnaires conducted in 2015 in the Shaanxi Province in northwestern China and using the Multinomial Logistic Model. Our findings imply that the relationship between women’s gender role attitudes and fertility intention differs between women affected by different birth control policies. We find that among married women with one child who are restricted to one child, the more egalitarian the gender role attitude, the more likely they intend to have a second child. Among married women who have had one child and are allowed to have two children, the more egalitarian the gender role attitude, the less likely they intend to have a second child. The results also indicate that traditional gender role attitudes and norms still play an important role in Chinese women’s fertility intentions.