Four models of the creative industries

What is the dynamic value of the creative industries from the economic perspective? This paper seeks to answer this question by proposing four models of the relationship between the creative industries and the whole economy, then examining the evidence for each. We find that growth models fit the data well, but not everywhere. We discuss the methodological and empirical basis for this finding and its implications for economic and cultural policy.     

Mortality Trends in Massachusetts Before 1860

The debate over whether turn-of-the-century immigrants were influenced more by their cultural heritage or by their socioeconomic circumstances when deciding to send their children either to school or to work, serves to illustrate the interplay between theory and evidence in the research process. The authors examine how ethnicity, the local economy, and the family economy affected children's participation in school and work. Using cost-of-living data from 1888-1890, they find that the effects of ethnicity on children's school participation were attenuated by local and family economy factors, and in some cases ethnic group coefficients no longer differed significantly from those of Yankees. The significant effects of ethnicity on children's work participation, however, persisted even when local and family economy factors were taken into consideration.     

Old Wine in New Bottles: The Utility of Data Reanalysis in the Social Sciences

Abstract

The authors reconstruct processes of ethnic identification among residents of rural northeast China from the end of the eighteenth century to the beginning of the twentieth through an analysis of naming behavior. They apply discrete-time event-history techniques to individual life histories compiled from longitudinal, nominative household-register data from state farms in what is now Liaoning Province to identify the individual and household circumstances associated with the adaptation of Han or Manchu names, focusing on the role of heredity and status. Ethnic identification in late imperial northeast China was potentially fluid. Many residents were descended from migrants from Shandong who became hereditary tenants on state land administered by a system of Manchu government known as the Eight Banners. As banner people, or qiren, these residents could legitimately claim to be Manchu. As descendants of Shandong migrants, they could also claim to be Han. They could express their choice of ethnic identity through their choice of names not just for their children but also for themselves. Names not only express ethnic self-identification, but their registration by state authorities in the analyzed data also implies official recognition and legitimacy. The authors' results demonstrate that ethnic identity was not hereditary but subject to individual and family choice.     

The Political Economy of Exile in the Great Dismal Swamp

The Great Dismal Swamp in North Carolina and Virginia has a history of profound significance to scholars and historians of North American diasporas. Between 1630 and 1865, thousands of maroons, enslaved canal company laborers, and disenfranchised Native Americans lived within this morass and formed communities that were connected through a dynamic swamp-wide political economy. The Great Dismal Swamp Landscape Study has been initiated to explore the archaeological landscapes of these Diasporans. This essay discusses several aspects of the theoretico-analytical research model that has guided this ongoing project. Also, included are brief explications on the methods and results of the first season of archaeological survey in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge.     

Evolutionary Foraging Models in Zooarchaeological Analysis: Recent Applications and Future Challenges

The last few decades have witnessed a rapid rise in the use of foraging models derived from behavioral ecology to explain and predict temporal and spatial differences in faunal assemblages. Although these models build on conventional ideas about utility firmly embedded in zooarchaeological analyses, when cast in an evolutionary framework these ideas produce some of the most sophisticated and elegant interpretations of archaeofaunas to date. In this article I review the methodological and practical strengths and weaknesses of current zooarchaeological applications of foraging models. Recent applications of foraging models to the zooarchaeological record reveal important variability in human-prey interactions across time and space. Case-specific applications generate theoretical and methodological advances that augment and are complementary to model building in allied fields. Recent applications also identify shortcomings in the underlying assumptions and rationale of some foraging models that mirror past and on-going discussions in anthropology and biology. I discuss how these shortcomings can fruitfully direct future applications and research in foraging economics.     

Stable isotopes as indicators of change in the food procurement and food preference of Viking Age and Early Christian populations on Gotland (Sweden)

Archaeological samples of human and faunal remains dating from the Viking (9–11th century AD) and Early Christian (11–12th century AD) periods of Gotland, Sweden were assayed through stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis in order to investigate whether changes in subsistence occurred between these periods, particularly regarding the importance of seafood. The study was concerned with how the dietary regime of the Baltic trading port and farming settlement at Ridanäs, Gotland was affected by the widespread environmental and sociocultural transformations that characterized the end of the Viking Age. More generally, the research considers how changes in both food procurement and preference may account for observed differences in the dietary regimes of individuals from the Viking Age and the Early Christian period.     

A simple Bayesian approach to tree‐ring dating

Tree‐ring dating involves matching sequences of ring widths from undated timbers to dated sequences known as ‘master’ chronologies. Conventionally, the undated timbers (from a building or woodland) are sequentially matched against one another, using t‐tests to identify the relative offsets with the ‘best’ match, thus producing a ’site’ chronology. A date estimate is obtained when this is matched to a local master chronology of known calendar age. Many tree‐ring sequences in the UK produce rather low t‐values and are thus declared not to have a ‘best’ match to a master chronology. Motivated by this and the routine use of Bayesian statistical methods to provide a probabilistic approach to radiocarbon dating, this paper investigates the practicality of Bayesian dendrochronology. We explore a previously published model for the relationship between ring widths and the underlying climatic signal, implementing it within the Bayesian framework via a simulation‐based approach. Probabilities for a match at each offset are produced, removing the need to identify a single ‘best’ match. The Bayesian model proves successful at matching in both simulated and real examples.     

Groundwater age,brine migration,and large‐scale solute transport in the Alberta Basin,Canada

There is a great contrast in geochemical and hydrogeologic estimates of the residence times of pore fluids in sedimentary basins. This contrast is particularly evident in the Alberta Basin, Canada, which has served as the study area for important studies of long‐term fluid flow and transport. To address these differences, we developed two‐dimensional simulations of groundwater age, constrained by both hydrogeologic and geochemical observations, to estimate the residence time of fluids and the amount and timing of flushing by meteoric waters in the Alberta Basin. Results suggest that old, residual brines have been retained in the deepest parts of the basin since their formation ca. 400 Ma, but significant dilution by younger waters has reduced the age of these pore waters to no more than approximately 200 My. Shallower formations have been flushed extensively by fresh, young waters. Loss of brines and dilution of older pore waters occurred primarily after the uplift of the Rockies with the introduction of the gravity‐driven flow regime. Despite these large changes in flow regime, solute exchange between deep saline aquifers and the overlying vigorous freshwater flow system was found to be consistent with long‐term dispersive mixing across subhorizontal concentration gradients rather than by direct flushing. Sensitivity studies using an analytic solution supported the use of 100 m for transverse dispersivity in large‐scale numerical models. These simulations confirm that the age and origin of brines are in many cases poor indicators of long‐term solute transport rates in sedimentary basins, but the geochemical indicators that are used to determine the origin of brines can provide useful constraints for calculating groundwater age and are far more commonly available than isotopic groundwater age tracers.     

Models of war 1770–1830: the birth of wargames and the trade-off between realism and simplicity

The first sophisticated wargames (military board games) were developed between 1770 and 1830 and are models of military conflict. Designers of these early games experimented fruitfully with different concepts that were formulated in interaction with the external dynamics of the military systems that they tried to represent and the internal dynamics of the design process itself. The designers of early wargames were confronted with a problem that affects all models: the trade-off between realism and simplicity, which in the case of wargames amounts to the trade-off between realism and playability. I try to show how different game concepts were developed as an answer to this problem, and how these seemingly arcane concepts form a relevant topic of investigation in the history of ideas. Moreover, a direct offshoot of this conceptual experimentation between 1770 and 1830 was the ‘free’ German wargame (Kriegsspiel), which became an integral part of German operational planning in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, thus adding another chapter to the story of the influence of ideas on human history.     

人口数据格网化模型研究进展综述

人口数据格网化是目前人口空间分布研究的热点。本文对国内外人口数据格网化模型研究进行总结,重点剖析几种主要的人口数据格网化模型。研究表明:人口数据格网化模型从单纯的、静态的格网化方法,逐步向自然、经济社会因素综合影响下的空间模型过渡,朝着动态模型方向发展;随着格网化数据应用领域的不断拓展,以不同级别格网为基本统计单元的人口数据生产将是人口数据获取的一个重要发展趋势。