Quantitative Methods in Archaeology: A Review of Recent Trends and Developments

This paper reviews recent developments in the application of quantitative methods to archaeological research and focuses upon three major themes: the development of so-called designer methods, which are quantitative methods created to solve specific problems; the resurgence of whole-society modeling through a variety of formal and mathematical approaches; and trends in the the teaching of quantitative methods at the undergraduate and graduate levels. Not surprisingly, different subfields have had greater success than others in the development of useful methods, and the causes of this are explored. Finally, suggestions for improving training in the use of these methods are offered.     

Rapid Diagnosis of Crack Patterns of Masonry Buildings Subjected to Landslide-Induced Settlements by Using the Load Path Method

One of the main difficulties, when dealing with landslide structural vulnerability, is the diagnosis of the causes of the crack pattern. This is also due to the excessive complexity of models based on classical structural mechanics that makes them inappropriate especially when there is the necessity to perform a rapid vulnerability assessment at the territorial scale. This is why in this article a new approach for the rapid diagnosis of crack patterns of masonry buildings subjected to landslide-induced settlements is proposed. This approach is based on the Load Path Method, recently applied to the interpretation of the behavior of masonry buildings subjected to landslide-induced settlements.     

Seismic behavior of two Portuguese adobe buildings: Part I - in-plane cyclic testing of a full-scale adobe wall

This article addresses the laboratory testing of a full-scale double-T shaped adobe wall, under in-plane horizontal cyclic loading of increasing amplitude, with the aim of contributing to the understanding of the seismic behavior of adobe structures. The wall was built with lime adobes taken from an existing building and mortar with a traditional composition. The behavior of the wall was assessed in terms of: shear stress versus horizontal drift and moment versus rotation relationships; maximum lateral strength; drift and rotation at peak stress; evolution of stiffness, lateral displacements, dissipated energy, and natural frequency; and damage pattern. The wall exhibited brittle behavior and in-plane strength corresponding to 56% of the vertical load. Cracking was observed with an X-shaped pattern whereas no sliding occurred at its base. This research supported the subsequent development of a repair and retrofit solution and also of numerical models to simulate the seismic behavior of two adobe buildings.     

Longitudinal determinants of married women’s autonomy in Egypt

This article explores determinants of women’s autonomy in Egypt around the beginning of the ‘Arab Spring’ in 2011. We show that women’s autonomy over time is a product not only of their individual characteristics, but also of the household and community environment in which they live. Using the 2006 and 2012 Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) and multilevel models, results demonstrate that women’s autonomy changes over time. There are large and consistent variations in women’s autonomy by household region of residence and wealth. For example, women in the rural and urban Upper Egypt region are less autonomous than women in the Cairo region, and women in wealthier households are less autonomous compared to the poorest households. Programs aiming to increase women’s autonomy focus exclusively or primarily on women’s own characteristics. These results indicate that strategies to improve women’s autonomy should be mindful of the multiple dimensions of autonomy and have a programmatic focus on changing household and social environments.     

Injuries on a skull from the Ancient Bronze Age (Ballabio,Lecco, Italy): a natural or an anthropic origin?

This paper discusses the results of the analysis of a female skull from a collective burial dated to the Ancient Bronze Age in Italy (Ballabio, LC). A virtual restoration and 3D reconstruction was also produced from the digitalized skull to complete the damaged parts and to recreate the facial appearance of this young adult female from the Bronze Age. The skull shows clear evidence of post-mortem modifications, as some series of scraping marks on the external cranial vault cross the parietal bones longitudinally. The contemporaneous presence of taphonomic linear marks on the skull and periostitis on the frontal bone, as well as the provenance of the specimen from a secondary burial (a typical funerary habit documented in Italy during the Copper Age and Ancient Bronze Age), makes it difficult to interpret the case (scalping, surgery, or ritual practice linked to secondary burial). The advanced methods used to analyse the skull surface allowed us to discriminate intentional marks from modifications due to other taphonomic processes and to determine the timing of their formation (peri- or post-mortem). The possibility that the scraping marks are related to a ritual practice, conducted during the individual's life (with specific symbolic or social value) or after death or at the moment of secondary burial, is discussed.     

FINITE FAULT MODELLING OF NEAR-FIELD ROCK MOTIONS IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

Due to lack of strong motion records, point-source and finite-fault models have been used to simulate far-field motions at Memphis and St. Louis Cities from earthquake events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. However, near-field rock motions and their associated uncertainties have never been studied within this zone. The objectives of this study are to develop a simple procedure to account for the uncertainty effect of earthquake source parameters, to analyze the sensitivity of near-field rock motions to input source parameters, and finally, to generate rock motions at two sites located within 11 km from the southwestern segment (strike-fault) and a third site bove the Reelfoot Rift (reverse fault) using a well-validated finite-fault simulation program; FINSIM. An equal-weight logic tree was developed to ensure that the assumed uncertainties are within physical, geological, and seismological constraints. For each site, 100 acceleration time histories with various combinations of parameter uncertainties were respectively simulated for an earthquake of M _w 7.0, 7.5, and 8.0 from each of the two faults. Their average spectral accelerations were in good agreement with those derived from the attenuation relation-ships representative to the Central and Eastern United States. Numerical simulations indicated that spectral accelerations are sensitive to the slip velocity, depth to top of fault, fault strike, slip distribution, and hypocentre location along the strike.     

Logistical mobility reduces subsistence risk in hunting economies

Increasing carnivory is frequently cited as one of the key trajectories in the course of hominin evolution, yet the ethnographic record demonstrates that hunting is a high-variance, risky strategy necessitating a fundamental re-organisation of the foraging pattern. Hunter-gatherers rely on intra-band sharing of hunted resources as well as inter-band insurance mechanisms to mitigate against the risk of resource failure. It is suggested that logistical mobility functions to increase encounter rates with both prey and representatives of neighbouring groups, and is thus a fundamental part of the hunting adaptation. Implementation of an ideal gas model of encounter rate demonstrates that, when logistical mobility is regarded as a basic group fission pattern, it increases encounter rates for all groups relying on greater than 34% hunting. This equates to a shift in the optimal hunting percentage, as defined by encounter rates, from 24% under residential mobility to 35% under a logistical mobility strategy. These results are discussed in relation to fission–fusion social systems in primates and social carnivores, with a view to highlighting the specific aspects in which these differ from human foraging strategies.     

GIS-based modeling of drought and historical population change on the Canadian Prairies

This article describes the development of a GIS-based model of historical drought and population change in western Canada, designed to support qualitative field research into drought adaptation and migration. The model combines digitized census data and recently available modeled historical climate data at a 10 km² grid cell scale and can be used to generate maps of ‘hotspots’ where historical declines in rural populations may be associated with extended periods of heat and lack of precipitation. The results suggest a promising avenue for expanding and refining GIS-based modeling of historical human–climate interactions to support qualitative research and to potentially serve as a stepping stone toward forecasting future risk areas of drought-related migration in continental dryland areas.     

Implications of hydro-political dependency for international water cooperation and conflict: Insights from new data

Hydro-political dependencies between countries are widely regarded as having important implications for international water cooperation and conflict. Quantitative ex-post empirical research on the subject so far uses very simple characterizations of international river geography to proxy for such dependencies, though. The authors developed a new geo-spatial dataset for water catchments worldwide. This dataset combines elevation models, flow accumulation approaches, hydrological data, and data on international boundaries to generate more precise and nuanced measures of hydro-political dependencies among riparian countries. The paper discusses these measurement concepts, illustrates how dependencies are distributed worldwide, and revisits three prominent quantitative studies on the issue to show how using improved data affects empirical findings. In contrast to a very popular presumption, upstream–downstream dependencies turn out to have a very small to insignificant effect on international water cooperation or conflict.     

Distribution parameters of guanaco (Lama guanicoe), pampas deer (Ozotoceros bezoarticus) and marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) in Central Argentina: Archaeological and paleoenvironmental implications

In this paper we use non-ambiguous collections and sightings data from the 18th century to generate potential distribution models of three species of South American ungulates. These ungulates (Lama guanicoe -guanaco-; Ozotoceras bezoarticus -pampas deer- and Blastoceros dichotomus -marsh deer-) have different and specific environmental requirements. Through MaxEnt software, twenty-two environmental variables that characterize the distribution area of each species are defined. Once the models are generated, they are compared with the faunal associations found at Late Holocene archaelogical sites in order to infer paleoenvironmental conditions. We also discuss the role played by humans in the faunal associations which are "anomalous" or inconsistent with those models, like the spatial overlap of guanaco and marsh deer.