旅游客源预测的神经网络方法

对旅游业来说,客源是赖以存在和发展的关键因素。根据游客人数的多少,旅游接待地可相应确定旅游接待服务设施规模,因此对游客数量进行预测是很重要而且是十分必要的。本文提出了一种基于人工神经网络的旅游客源预测方法,用以对旅游客源进行预测。文中首先介绍了神经网络的基本原理,以及BP算法的运算过程。在此基础上,针对入境旅游人数预测的特定问题构造了一个神经网络模型,对近些年入境旅游人数进行了较为准确的预测,并将其结果与传统方法进行了比较。结果表明:该方法能有效地对旅游客源进行预测,结果优于传统方法,具有很高的准确性和鲁棒性。     

省域城市网络中心性测度及比较研究——以江苏省和广东省的对比分析为例

城市网络中心性是衡量城市地位、分析城市体系的重要概念.本文在剖析中心性理论内涵的演化后,提出网络中心性应当同时体现规模等级和要素流动的水平.通过区分静态网络和联系网络,论文构建了基于规模数据和流动数据的网络中心性评价体系,并以江苏、广东为例进行实证分析.研究发现:①从规模和联系两类城市网络中心性的视角识别首位城市是有效...     

多尺度视角下中国城市创新网络格局及邻近性机理分析

借助2016年国家知识产权局的专利合作数据,利用复杂网络和空间分析方法对国家、区际和省内三个尺度的城市创新网络结构进行刻画,并利用负二项回归法对创新合作的邻近性机理进行了剖析。研究表明：①全国城市创新网络的整体联系较弱,网络极化现象明显,空间结构呈现出以北京为核心的放射型网络形态。区际城市创新网络的跨区域网络联系强于区内网络联系,东中西形成以区域中心城市为核心的异质性空间结构。省内城市创新网络的本地结网不足,内部联系强度低,空间形态普遍呈现出以省会城市为中心的核心-边缘结构。②回归结果证实了社会邻近、技术邻近对城市创新结网具有显著的促进作用,地理邻近则呈现出不显著的正向影响。其中,技术邻近的促进作用显著高于社会邻近,而地理邻近则需要通过社会邻近的调节效应对创新结网产生影响。     

中国企业家成长路径的地理学研究

通过建构中国786位企业家四个成长阶段空间信息数据库,本文运用地理空间分析方法和复杂网络模型,在对企业家成长时空规律分析的基础上,对中国207个城市在企业家成长中发挥的作用进行了研究,并着重对在企业家成长中发挥重要作用的30个城市的角色进行了精准识别,得出以下结论：①中国企业家成长在空间上呈现出分散-集中-分散的演化过程,长三角地区是中国企业家成长最为依赖的空间载体;②企业家成长视角下的中国城市创新网络等级层次明显,北京市以绝对优势成为中国城市创新网络的核心;③在30个扮演重要角色的城市中,只有北京与宁波两市同时身兼两个角色,其中北京为成功兼创业型,宁波为成功兼奠基型。     

网络关系嵌入、创新扩散与旅游企业创新绩效

作为服务业创新的重要分支,旅游业创新研究还处于起步阶段,旅游企业创新绩效及其影响机制研究还很缺乏。本文以嵌入性理论为切入点,构建了旅游企业网络关系嵌入与创新绩效之间关系的理论模型,并以四川剑门蜀道核心景区（剑门关）周边旅游企业为样本,运用回归模型实证研究了关系嵌入性如何通过创新扩散来影响旅游企业创新绩效。研究结果显示：旅游企业网络的强关系有利于提升企业的创新绩效,企业间互惠程度和关系的持久性与创新绩效正相关,创新扩散在旅游企业关系嵌入和创新绩效关系中起部分中介作用。     

复合生态系统下城市高质量发展时空演化及驱动因素研究——以黄河流域7大城市群为例

基于复合生态系统理论，构建高质量发展评价体系，考察了2010—2018年黄河流域城市群高质量发展时空演化特征与驱动因素，结果表明：①城市群高质量发展呈“下游领先、中游振兴、上游落后”的空间特征，经济发展水平与社会民生低下是首要制约因素。②高质量发展水平趋于收敛，但区域差异显著，资源环境促进高质量发展趋同。③高质量发展耦合逐年攀升，协调度下降趋势明显，东西非均衡化特征突出。④高质量发展的空间差异性由多因子共同作用，其中科技创新是核心驱动因子。     

From stone to metal: New perspectives on the later prehistory of West Africa

Earlier views saw West Africa as culturally stagnant through much of the Holocene until stimulus or intervention from north of the Sahara transformed Iron Age societies. Evidence accumulating over the past 15 years suggests that stone-using societies from 10,000 to 3000 B.P. were far more diverse than previously thought. Against an increasingly detailed record of Holocene climate change, the complexity of local adaptation and change is becoming better understood. Although a strong case currently exists for the introduction of copper and iron to West Africa from the north in the mid-first millennium B.C., the subsequent development of metallurgy was strongly innovative in different parts of the subcontinent. Soon after the advent of metals, a dramatic increase in archaeological evidence for social stratification and hierarchical political structures indicates the emergence of societies markedly more complex than anything currently documented in the Late Stone Age. The best-documented examples come from the Middle Niger region and the Nigerian forest. In these areas, earlier diffusionist models in which complexity originated outside West Africa have yielded to evidence that indigenous processes were instrumental in this transformation. Trade, ideology, climate shifts, and indirect influences from North Africa, including the introduction of the domesticated horse to the Sahelian grasslands, are identified as factors essential to an understanding of these processes.     

Intentional human burial: Middle Paleolithic (last glaciation) beginnings

This paper analyzes intentional burial as a historical phenomenon. Mortuary practices are viewed as a particular sphere of human activity, involving the transfer of the physical remains from one natural environment to another. The general and specific laws governing mortuary treatment and its development are discussed, and the earliest known deliberate burials—those of the Middle Paleolithic—are examined against this theoretical background. Middle Paleolithic groups invented almost all the basic ways of treating a corpse before burial and almost all the ways of burial itself. They seem to have developed a cult of the dead, based upon dualities such as concealment vs exposure of the body, burial of the body intact vs disarticulated, burial of the whole body vs parts of it only, and so on. It is shown that, in the Middle Paleolithic, there were centers of taphological activity, that inhumation was selectively practiced on only a small minority of the population, that men were buried much more often than women, and that the patterns of burial seem to have been independent of identifiable factors such as human physical type or level of technology.     

New tech spaces for old tech places? Exploring the network of research and technology organizations across North Italian Regions

This paper explores the industrial affiliation and linkages of research and technology organizations (RTOs) in nine North Italian regions highly specialized in advanced manufacturing and introduces a methodology to assess the potential for a cross-regional technology platform. RTOs are supposed to operate in the development and application phases of innovation and are expected to provide access to key enabling technologies and R&D infrastructures. An original survey panel of 55 Italian RTOs is used and Social network analysis is introduced to assess the potential of RTOs to operate as a single cross-regional platform across key industrial and technology domains. Centrality measures are used to build an empirical model on the factors that drive the higher centrality of RTOs. Centrality is increased by convergence on few key technology priorities and is positively correlated with collaborative ventures, the number of contracts with firms and the presence of distinctive R&D infrastructures. Such a platform rests on specialized regional hubs, it operates with no gatekeepers and it only partially exploits geographical and technological proximity within the network. Future research avenues are discussed to improve the function of technology diffusion of RTOs in a cross-regional perspective.     

长江三角洲船舶代理服务业空间组织网络时空演化——基于两省一市分析

选取2010年和2015年长三角地区船舶代理企业为研究样本,运用定量与定性相结合的方法,分别探析了多层尺度下长三角地区船舶代理企业的空间分布特征和以地级城市为载体的船舶代理服务业空间组织网络时空演化。研究发现：长三角地区船舶代理企业机构空间分布呈现出明显地域差异,区域和城市尺度上非均衡分布较为显著;长三角地区船舶代理服务业空间组织网络具有显著层级特征和明显的位序关系;由船舶代理企业组织构成的四大城市（上海、南京、苏州与宁波）现已成为空间组织网络主干联系的中心节点。同时,传统“T字型”主干区正在向外扩展,区域一体化趋势正在加强。宏观背景、区域机制与企业机制共同推动长三角地区船舶代理服务业空间组织网络时空演变。