河口港城市形态演变的分析研究——兼论宁波城市形态的历史演变及发展

该文在对港口城市形态的影响因素的分析基础上,提出了港口城市形态的演变机制和河口港城市形态的演变规律。并且通过对宁波城市形态历史演变的实证分析,结合宁波城市发展的战略目标,提出了宁波城市形态的合理发展趋势。     

LIMITATIONS OF USING A COARSE RESOLUTION MODEL TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SEA ICE IN HUDSON BAY

The simulation of Sea-ice in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model is examined in Hudson Bay and surrounding waters. Sea-ice distribution and duration compared well to climatological values, although ice thickness is undersimulated as it is in other modelling work. In Hudson Bay ice thickness variation was dominated by the atmospheric forcing as shown by the symmetric response of ice thickness to warming and cooling scenarios. Below ice heat fluxes play a more significant role in Foxe Basin and Baffin Bay where they mitigate air-ice heat loss by as much as 40 percent, thus limiting ice thickness and duration. Below ice heat flux reduces by 23 percent for the region of study (Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, Baffin Bay, and Labrador Sea) for a global 3°C cooling and increases by 9 percent for a 3°C global warming. This asymmetric response is attributed to the ocean's asymmetric response to warming and cooling scenarios. In so much as Hudson Bay is dominated by atmospheric forcing rather than under ice heat as these results indicate, coarse resolution models may be useful in assessing the impact of change. However the necessary reconfiguration of the model grid render results from Foxe Basin and Hudson Strait less credible. On étudie la simulation de glace marine dans un modèle de circulation océanique générale à faible résolution dans la baie d'Hudson et dans les eaux avoisinantes. La distribution et la durée de la glace marine correspondent bien aux valeurs climatologiques, bien que l'épaisseur de la glace soit sous-simulée comme c'est le cas dans d'autres travaux de modélisation. Dans la baie d'Hudson, la variation de l'epaisseur de la glace est dominée par le forçage atmosphérique, comme on peut le voir d'après la réponse symétrique de l'épaisseur de la glace suivant les scénarios de réchauffement et de refroidissement. Les flux de chaleur sous la glace jouent un rôle plus important dans le bassin de Foxe et la baie Baffin, où ils permettent une réduction des pertes de chaleur air-glace allant jusqu'à 40 pour cent, limitant ainsi l'épaisseur de la glace et la durée. Le flux de chaleur sous la glace diminue de 23 pour cent dans la région étudiée (baie d'Hudson, bassin de Foxe, baie Baffin et mer du Labrador) pour un refroidissement global de 3C et augmente de 9 pour cent pour un réchauffement global de 3C. On attribue cette réponse asymétrique à la réponse asymétrique de l'océan aux scénarios de refroidissement et de réchauffement. Dans la mesure où, comme l'indiquent ces résultats, la baie d'Hudson est dominée par le forçage atmosphérique plutôt que par la chaleur sous la glace, des modèles à faible résolution peuvent être utiles pour évaluer l'impact des changements. Cependant, la reconfiguration nécessaire de la grille du modèle atténue la crédibilité des résultats obtenus dans le Bassin de Foxe et le détroit d'Hudson.     

Tuvalu and Climate Change: Constructions of Environmental Displacement in The Sydney Morning Herald

Tuvalu, a place whose image in the ‘West’ is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change‐related sea‐level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as .tragic victims. of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low‐lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change.     

制度变迁与中国城市的发展及空间结构的历史演变

我国的城市发展水平同经济发展水平的偏离,说明对城市发展及其空间结构演变分析不能仅局限在物质经济领域,需要我们寻求影响城市发展及其空间结构变化的新因素一制度因素,把制度作为影响城市发展及其空间结构的一个主要的变量,来对此加以解释。为此,本首先构建了“制度变迁一城市发展变化”的理论框架,然后用该理论从宏观和微观两个方面来检验1949-1998年间制度变迁对城市发展及其空间结构的影响。与西方国家的以市场经济为主要动力驱动型的城市发展模式不同,中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变在很大程度上是制度变迁而诱致的结果。但不同的制度对城市数量增长、组织体系及空间布局和对城市空间结构演变的作用力度又不尽相同。改革开放后,由于制度变迁带来的激励作用,中国城市获得了快速发展,城市空间结构快速变化。但与此同时,中国城市化的发展水平与相同发展条件下的世界城市化水平的差距却在拉大。而且随着市场经济体制的逐步完善,影响城市增长及空间结构的演变力量的因素越来越趋于分散化,制度变迁对城市发展所带来的激励作用正在弱化。为适应新世纪我国城市发展的战略目标,需要进行体制创新,为中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变提供新的制度支持。     

内蒙古中南部考古学文化演变的环境学透视

内蒙古中南部位于我国北方农牧交错带的中段, 是气侯变化的敏感地区。全新世以来的气侯波动, 对于塑造这里的自然景观和古文化的面貌起着重要的作用。本文分析了全新世大暖期的不同时段上古文化的特点和生计方式的变化, 并从沙地进退、湖面升降的视角探讨了这一地区考古学文化的演变以及人地之间相互作用的过程。     

荀悦考察历史的方法

东汉后期著名史学家荀悦的著作《汉纪》和《申鉴》中包含着卓越的史识。这主要表现他把历史看成是发展的,各种制度应适应时代与社会的发展而变化,统治者必须随时而变,随机应变。他认为考察历史问题应与具体的社会环境结合起来,具体问题具体分析,主张将不同的政治主张置于具体历史时空中探讨。他既能从整体上把握事物,从多角度加以探讨,又能考察事物的不同方面,分析其内在联系。他看到事物具有相对性的特点,主张通过比较把握事物的共性与个性,认为考察事物要透过现象看本质。他朦胧地意识到事物内部存在既相互对立又相互联系的两个方面,在人物评价中注意分析其两重性。荀悦的史识值得我们认真总结。     

From sustainable development to carbon control: eco-state restructuring and the politics of urban and regional development

The management of carbon emissions holds some prospect for challenging sustainable development as the organising principle of socio-environmental regulation. This paper explores the rise of a distinctive low-carbon polity as an ideological state project, and examines its potential ramifications for the regulation of economy–environment relations at the urban and regional scale. Carbon control would seem to introduce a new set of values into state regulation and this might open up possibilities for challenging mainstream modes of urban and regional development in a manner not possible under sustainable development. But low-carbon restructuring also portends intensified uneven development, new forms of state control and a socially uneven reworking of state–society relations. In order to explore these issues we start by setting out a framework for conceptualising environmental regulation based around the idea of eco-state restructuring. This idea is introduced to capture the conflicts, power struggles and strategic selectivities involved as governments seek to reconcile environmental protection with multiple other pressures and demands. Overall the paper seeks to make a distinctive contribution to theoretical work on state environmental regulation and the emerging spatial dimensions of climate policy.     

Pollen analysis of core DS7-1SC (Dead Sea) showing intertwined effects of climatic change and human activities in the Late Holocene

The Dead Sea sediment holds the archives of a complex relationship between ever-changing nature and ancient civilisations. Here the detailed pollen analyses of core DS7-1SC (off-Ein-Gedi) are presented for the first time. The record covers the last 2500 years. The facies changes from halite (when no freshwater flows in the Dead Sea) to laminites (when rainfall provides sufficient inflow for the Jordan and subsidiary rivers) a couple of times through the record. The pollen diagram (supported by the facies change) shows a wetter Roman-Byzantine period, which allowed intensive arboriculture and a wetter period at the end of the XIXth and beginning of the XXth centuries, the latter in good relation with historical and instrumental data. Based on radiocarbon chronologies on several pollen diagrams along the western Dead Sea shore, the transition to drier climates and the transition to pastoralism are suggested to take place between a few decades before the Islamic period and close to this transition.     

清至民国时期茶叶消费主体的新变化及其影响

清至民国时期茶叶消费主体呈现许多新特征、新变化.平民百姓的茶叶消费带有更多的市场行为,少数民族茶叶消费数量更多,军士以茶充饷现象屡见不鲜,国外消费主体异军突起,官僚文人、富商大贾、和尚道士的茶叶消费与茶叶市场关系更紧密,皇亲国戚的茶叶消费披上了浓浓的市场色彩.这些新特征、新变化对茶叶市场发展产生了深刻影响.茶叶消费主体的消费数量、消费能力、消费层次、消费习惯、消费方式从某种程度上决定着茶叶市场的基本走势.     

Variabilité et fréquence des cycles de gel‐dégel dans la région de Québec, 1977–2006

Freeze‐thaw cycles are most common at the beginning or near the end of the winter season. These cycles have various effects on the ecosystems of Eastern Canada, affecting both biotic and abiotic components of temperate cold environments. Using air temperature minima and maxima from four meteorological stations close to Québec City, we determined the frequency of daily freeze‐thaw cycles for the last 30 years. The results show no significant increase in the number of freeze‐thaw cycles despite a small increase in air temperature. Polynomial curves describing the relationship between mean air temperatures and the number of freeze‐thaw cycles were calculated. Based on these equations and anticipating a climate change scenario, we projected future freeze‐thaw cycles. Assuming a 5 °C increase in mean air temperatures by 2100, we estimated that the number of days with a freeze‐thaw cycle could increase by approximately 20 days per winter. The increase in the number of such cycles will be concentrated during the coldest months of the winter (January and February).