江苏省入境旅游流的时空演变及影响因素分析

入境旅游是衡量一个地区旅游经济发展水平的重要指标.本文以2000~2012年江苏入境旅游人数和外汇收入数据为基础,运用定量方法、GIS软件等对江苏入境旅游流的时空演变过程及影响因素进行分析.研究发现:江苏入境旅游流及外汇收入稳步上升,2005年后江苏入境旅游经济逐渐走向成熟;在2000~2005年期间,港澳游客占据江苏的主要入境客流市场,2005年后外国游客成为江苏入境旅游市场的主角;入境旅游流流质不断提高,各市入境旅游流流质空间分布差异逐渐减小;江苏入境旅游流流量受民航客运量及经济社会发展影响较大;而交通线路长度及星级酒店对旅游流质量影响较大.     

Faults and fault properties in hydrocarbon flow models

The petroleum industry uses subsurface flow models for two principal purposes: to model the flow of hydrocarbons into traps over geological time, and to simulate the production of hydrocarbon from reservoirs over periods of decades or less. Faults, which are three-dimensional volumes, are approximated in both modelling applications as planar membranes onto which predictions of the most important fault-related flow properties are mapped. Faults in porous clastic reservoirs are generally baffles or barriers to flow and the relevant flow properties are therefore very different to those which are important in conductive fracture flow systems. A critical review and discussion is offered on the work-flows used to predict and model capillary threshold pressure for exploration fault seal analysis and fault transmissibility multipliers for production simulation, and of the data from which the predictions derive. New flow simulation models confirm that failure of intra-reservoir sealing faults can occur during a reservoir depressurization via a water-drive mechanism, but contrary to anecdotal reports, published examples of production-induced seal failure are elusive. Ignoring the three-dimensional structure of fault zones can sometimes have a significant influence on production-related flow, and a series of models illustrating flow associated with relay zones are discussed.     

Downward hydrocarbon migration predicted from numerical modeling of fluid overpressure in the Paleozoic Anticosti Basin,eastern Canada

The Anticosti Basin is a large Paleozoic basin in eastern Canada where potential source and reservoir rocks have been identified but no economic hydrocarbon reservoirs have been found. Potential source rocks of the Upper Ordovician Macasty Formation overlie carbonates of the Middle Ordovician Mingan Formation, which are underlain by dolostones of the Lower Ordovician Romaine Formation. These carbonates have been subjected to dissolution and dolomitization and are potential hydrocarbon reservoirs. Numerical simulations of fluid‐overpressure development related to sediment compaction and hydrocarbon generation were carried out to investigate whether hydrocarbons generated in the Macasty Formation could migrate downward into the underlying Mingan and Romaine formations. The modeling results indicate that, in the central part of the basin, maximum fluid overpressures developed above the Macasty Formation due to rapid sedimentation. This overpressured core dissipated gradually with time, but the overpressure pattern (i.e. maximum overpressure above source rock) was maintained during the generation of oil and gas. The downward impelling force associated with fluid‐overpressure gradients in the central part of the basin was stronger than the buoyancy force for oil, whereas the buoyancy force for gas and for oil generated in the later stage of the basin is stronger than the overpressure‐related force. Based on these results, it is proposed that oil generated from the Macasty Formation in the central part of the basin first moved downward into the Mingan and Romaine formations, and then migrated laterally up‐dip toward the basin margin, whereas gas throughout the basin and oil generated in the northern part of the basin generally moved upward. Consequently, gas reservoirs are predicted to occur in the upper part of the basin, whereas oil reservoirs are more likely to be found in the strata below the source rocks. Geofluids (2010) 10 , 334–350     

Hydraulic observations from a 1 year fluid production test in the 4000 m deep KTB pilot borehole

A long‐term pump test was conducted in the KTB pilot borehole (KTB‐VB), located in the Oberpfalz area, Germany. It produced 22 300 m³ of formation fluid. Initially, fluid production rate was 29 l min^?1 for 4 months, but was then raised to an average of 57 l min^?1 for eight more months. The aim of this study was to examine the fluid parameters and hydraulic properties of fractured, crystalline crusts as part of the new KTB programme ‘Energy and Fluid Transport in Continental Fault Systems’. KTB‐VB has an open‐hole section from 3850 to 4000 m depth that is in hydraulic contact with a prominent continental fault system in the area, called SE2. Salinity and temperature of the fluid inside the borehole, and consequently hydrostatic pressure, changed significantly throughout the test. Influence of these quantities on variations in fluid density had to be taken into account for interpretation of the pump test. Modelling of the pressure response related to the pumping was achieved assuming the validity of linear Darcy flow and permeability to be independent of the flow rate. Following the principle ‘minimum in model dimension’, we first examined whether the pressure response can be explained by an equivalent model where rock properties around the borehole are axially symmetric. Calculations show that the observed pressure data in KTB‐VB can in fact be reproduced through such a configuration. For the period of high pumping rate (57 l min^?1) and the following recovery phase, the resulting parameters are 2.4 × 10^?13 m³ in hydraulic transmissivity and 3.7 × 10^?9 m Pa^?1 in storativity for radial distances up to 187 m, and 4.7 × 10^?14 m³ and 6.0 × 10^?9 m Pa^?1, respectively, for radial distances between 187 and 1200 m. The former pair of values mainly reflect the hydraulic properties of the fault zone SE2. For a more realistic hydraulic study on a greater scale, program FEFLOW was used. Parameter values were obtained by matching the calculated induced pressure signal to fluid‐level variations observed in the KTB main hole (KTB‐HB) located at 200 m radial distance from KTB‐VB. KTB‐HB is uncased from 9031 to 9100 m and shows indications of leakage in the casing at depths 5200–5600 m. Analysis of the pressure record and hydraulic modelling suggest the existence of a weak hydraulic communication between the two boreholes, probably at depths around the leakage. Hydraulic modelling of a major slug‐test in KTB‐HB that was run during the pumping in KTB‐VB reveals the effective transmissivity of the connected formation to be 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower than the one determined for the SE2 fault zone.     

节庆事件对区域旅游流空间网络的影响效应和机制研究

以洛阳牡丹花节为例,通过多源数据的融合,运用社会网络、因子分析方法,探究节庆事件对区域旅游流空间网络的影响效应及机制。结果表明：节庆事件对区域旅游流空间网络影响表现为协同、弱化及蜂聚三种效应,不同效应影响机制不同。其中,节点的等级和知名度优势非常明显的态势下,产生显著的协同效应;节庆游憩区内的低等级节点出现轻微的节庆弱化效应,区域外节点主要受到空间交通距离限制产生了显著的节庆弱化效应;旅游等级很强且旅游承载量优势非常明显的非节庆旅游节点,以及等级、知名度或地理区位较强的节庆旅游节点呈现出强蜂聚效应,以上条件均不强的节庆旅游节点仅发生弱集聚效应。     

Geomorphic reconstruction of formation and recession processes of waterfalls of the Kaminokawa river basin on Osumi Peninsula,southern Kyushu,Japan

To assess the geomorphological importance of waterfall recession in volcanic bedrock, we examined recession rates of six waterfalls in the lower reaches of Kaminokawa river basin on the Osumi Peninsula in southern Kyushu. The examination was performed with an empirical equation that uses a dimensionless parameter obtained by dimensional analysis of relevant measured factors, including erosive force, size of waterfall, and bedrock resistance. Welded Ata ignimbrite, formed at approximately 110 ka, may have played an initiating role to maintain such waterfalls because it resists weathering more than other local rocks. Estimated recession rates for the six waterfalls range from 0.2 to 3.0 cm/y, which compare with estimated rates for waterfalls in another region characterised by welded ignimbrite. Comparison of equation‐derived recession rates of waterfalls with actual recession distances from confluences supports the idea that an original waterfall will subsequently split into two distinct waterfalls when it recesses past an upstream junction of two channels. Our findings revealed that all six waterfalls likely would have been at almost the same point lower in the watershed in the past, marking the general site of the original waterfall. Moreover, the ancestral original waterfall is highly likely to have started from a point between the caldera rim and present river mouth. There, a knickpoint was likely caused by the river dropping into an inner part of the caldera, possibly just after the eruption of the Ata ignimbrite. The waterfall erodes upstream away from the caldera basin, and this happens to be to the east.     

旅游流距离衰减现象演绎研究

以旅游系统空间结构模型为依托,通过绘制旅游流距离衰减曲线,对旅游流距离衰减现象进行演绎研究。结果发现,高斯分布型和指数分布型是旅游流距离衰减曲线的基本类型,旅游系统中客源地结点的空间分布格局是旅游流距离衰减曲线类型的决定性因素,到访率距离衰减速率是曲线形状的修饰性因素,距离衰减曲线的绘制方法不同,距离衰减曲线的类型也不同。最后,以井冈山和庐山为案例进行了实证分析。     

Effects of episodic fluid flow on hydrocarbon migration in the Newport‐Inglewood Fault Zone,Southern California

Fault permeability may vary through time due to tectonic deformations, transients in pore pressure and effective stress, and mineralization associated with water‐rock reactions. Time‐varying permeability will affect subsurface fluid migration rates and patterns of petroleum accumulation in densely faulted sedimentary basins such as those associated with the borderland basins of Southern California. This study explores the petroleum fluid dynamics of this migration. As a multiphase flow and petroleum migration case study on the role of faults, computational models for both episodic and continuous hydrocarbon migration are constructed to investigate large‐scale fluid flow and petroleum accumulation along a northern section of the Newport‐Inglewood fault zone in the Los Angeles basin, Southern California. The numerical code solves the governing equations for oil, water, and heat transport in heterogeneous and anisotropic geologic cross sections but neglects flow in the third dimension for practical applications. Our numerical results suggest that fault permeability and fluid pressure fluctuations are crucial factors for distributing hydrocarbon accumulations associated with fault zones, and they also play important roles in controlling the geologic timing for reservoir filling. Episodic flow appears to enhance hydrocarbon accumulation more strongly by enabling stepwise build‐up in oil saturation in adjacent sedimentary formations due to temporally high pore pressure and high permeability caused by periodic fault rupture. Under assumptions that fault permeability fluctuate within the range of 1–1000 millidarcys (10^?15–10^?12 m²) and fault pressures fluctuate within 10–80% of overpressure ratio, the estimated oil volume in the Inglewood oil field (approximately 450 million barrels oil equivalent) can be accumulated in about 24 000 years, assuming a seismically induced fluid flow event occurs every 2000 years. This episodic petroleum migration model could be more geologically important than a continuous‐flow model, when considering the observed patterns of hydrocarbons and seismically active tectonic setting of the Los Angeles basin.     

Thermal springs and heat flow in North America

Thermal springs are commonly thought to be an indicator of geothermal resource potential. However, there have been few analyses of the relationship between thermal springs and the underlying thermal regime. An examination of temperature and discharge rates for a large database of thermal springs in North America demonstrates that there is not a simple relationship between these measurements made at the surface and subsurface heat flow. Hydrogeological factors appear to exert strong controls on the temperature and discharge at these springs and should be carefully considered in geothermal resource assessments.