基于腾讯迁徙大数据的长三角城市群春运人口流动时空特征

开展城市群人口流动研究对促进区域人口有序流动和城市群协同发展具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。本文基于腾讯迁徙大数据，运用GIS空间统计和K-shell分解等方法，从人口流动总量、位序、时序和网络层级等方面，对我国长三角城市群2018年春运期间的人口流动特征进行系统研究。结果表明：①长三角城市群春运期间大规模的“返乡流”和“返城流”呈现明显的对称性，并分别于除夕和第一个工作日达到最高峰。②经济发展水平相对较高的上海、苏州、杭州等为劳动力输入型城市，而经济发展水平相对较低的盐城、安庆和滁州等为劳动力输出型城市。③长三角城市群内部人口流动网络具有明显的层级特征，其中上海和杭州是人口辐射核心城市，上海-合肥、上海-南京、上海-杭州等是人口流动的主体路径；空间上东部-西部横向人口流动最为频繁，大体呈现“Z”字形。     

How should tourism education values be transformed after 2020?

Abstract

Values and axiology are necessary components for successful and meaningful tourism education and research. They especially need to be revisited in considering the future of higher education in a COVID-19 world. If transformation means to bring about a substantial change in a positive direction, then the COVID-19 pandemic might be a blessing in disguise for tourism higher education, as a substantial change has been due for quite some time. The transformative powers that education offers are seen in the individual through the internal and external transformations of learners. Higher education holds the promise of transforming society, but it is widely criticized for being too enmeshed in neoliberal values, which weakens it ability to productively equip students with capacities to transform the society they are entering. Education, both generally and more specifically tied to tourism higher education, requires a stronger awareness of lived values and aspirational values to transform how education is carried out. These include, for example, an emphasis on wellbeing indicators over revenue and tourist arrival numbers. All humans act and plan for their futures according to their lived values, but such values are hardly ever overtly acknowledged in research or in daily parlance. The COVID-19 pandemic is stirring up a new search for these lived values in a context where past formulas are failing on a global scale.     

“少子化”与“老龄化”:马来西亚华人人口发展特点与趋势预测

论文基于历年马来西亚官方的统计数据,对当前"少子化"背景下马来西亚华人人口发展现状进行系统描述;在人口转变理论框架下对马来西亚华人人口比重下降这一现象进行归因分析;并利用人口队列预测方法预测分析马来西亚中长期人口发展状况。研究发现:由于较早开始人口转变进程,马来西亚华人具有低生育率、高老龄化程度等特征;人口转变进程中的族群"堕距",是当前华人人口比重下降的根本原因。伴随马来西亚各族群人口转变进程的推进,未来华人人口比例下降速度将逐步趋缓,但老龄化程度将快速提高。     

Linking Scottish vital event records using family groups

Abstract

The reconstitution of populations through linkage of historical records is a powerful approach to generate longitudinal historical microdata resources of interest to researchers in various fields. Here we consider automated linking of the vital events recorded in the civil registers of birth, death and marriage compiled in Scotland, to bring together the various records associated with the demographic events in the life course of each individual in the population. From the histories, the genealogical structure of the population can then be built up. Rather than apply standard linkage techniques to link the individuals on the available certificates, we explore an alternative approach, inspired by the family reconstitution techniques adopted by historical demographers, in which the births of siblings are first linked to form family groups, after which intergenerational links between families can be established. We report a small-scale evaluation of this approach, using two district-level data sets from Scotland in the late nineteenth century, for which sibling links have already been created by demographers. We show that quality measures of up to 83% can be achieved on these data sets (using F-Measure, a combination of precision and recall). In the future, we intend to compare the results with a standard linkage approach and to investigate how these various methods may be used in a project which aims to link the entire Scottish population from 1856 to 1973.     

The person‐years construct: ageing and the prevalence of health related phenomena from skeletal samples

Age has the ability to confound prevalence data. Yet, the effects of length of exposure and age‐structure on such prevalence data are seldom directly measured in osteological studies. Here we describe a simple method that addresses both issues through the use of person‐years, and treatment of data in the case of rare events as Poisson counts. We advocate use of person‐years as a denominator when comparing skeletal data that involves the cumulative insults of ageing (e.g. fractures, dental caries, and other chronic diseases such as osteoarthritis). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enamel hypoplasia in Danish and Lithuanian Late Medieval/Early Modern samples: a possible reflection of child morbidity and mortality patterns

Numerous studies and various interpretations of the prevalence of linear enamel hypoplasias (LEH) based on populations living in different cultural and economic conditions are causing some confusion and raising doubts about whether or not such LEH are reliable indicators of life conditions. An analysis of LEH prevalence patterns was performed on the adults of three populations: Tirup—a Danish Medieval rural population of the 12–14th centuries (131 individuals), Subačiaus str. in Vilnius—a Lithuanian Late Medieval urban population of the 16–17th centuries (88 individuals), and the aristocracy—a Lithuanian pooled sample population from several churches of the 15–18th centuries (66 individuals). Statistical testing of the influence of population affinity, sex and age at death was also performed. Since the same investigator scored all the samples, possible inter‐observer error bias was minimized. In all the populations, LEH formation ages were similar. Statistically significant sex differences were found only in the aristocratic sample (with higher male frequency). It was found that the town population was characterized by the highest frequency of affected individuals, with the highest severity and highest number of stress episodes per individual. A reliable relationship with age at death was found only in the town sample: individuals with more numerous and more marked LEH had shorter life expectancies in adulthood. Different “most vulnerable years” for subsequent life expectancies were noted for different populations. A tentative explanation of these differences could be the pooled effect of differential morbidity and mortality. It seems that the rural population experienced the highest morbidity and nutrition deficiency as well as the highest child mortality whereas, in the urban sample, high morbidity was accompanied by a lower child mortality. Both lower morbidity and mortality seem to be characteristic for the aristocracy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shifts Along a Spectrum: A Longitudinal Study of the Western Eurasian Realized Climate Niche

ABSTRACT

Climate niches that modern humans and earlier hominin ancestors occupied have changed dramatically over time, but the extent of those changes has gone largely undocumented. This study investigates the manner in which the realised hominin climate niche has expanded, contracted, or stayed stationary across four time periods (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene, and 1950–2000) in Western Eurasia. Using spatially gridded general circulation model data and site locations this study examines climate variables from archaeological sites and current Western Eurasian cities to describe both the regional Western Eurasian fundamental and realised climate niches. Changes between the three prehistoric periods and modern-day time period are analysed by calculating each realised niche breadth, overlap, position, and variance. Results indicate that as global temperatures cooled from the Last Interglacial to Last Glacial Maximum, populations expanded their climate niche breadth beyond that of earlier Neanderthal groups, shifting toward regions with less seasonal variation. Conversely, Mid-Holocene humans, who saw the proliferation of both agriculture and population, contracted their realised climate niche space. The contraction and expansion of realised climate niche space illustrates how hominins have evolved the capacity to shift their niche through changes to their subsistence strategy and adaptations to overall climatic conditions.     

Embracing the future: path transformation and system reconfiguration for self-driving cars in West Sweden

ABSTRACT

The past years have witnessed a surge of academic interest into how new industrial paths are developed in regions. Transformation processes of existing regional industries have received less attention. This article focuses on radical innovation-based renewal processes of established paths and investigates how regional innovation systems are tackling challenges related to path transformation. Drawing on insights from the regional and technological innovation systems literatures, we develop an analytical framework that elucidates the relation between path transformation and system reconfiguration. The framework suggests that regional innovation system elements are created or adapted to (i) target the build-up of system functions regionally; (ii) link up to system functions in other locations, and (iii) transplant system functions from elsewhere. The analytical framework is applied to a case study of the transformation of the automotive industry in West Sweden towards self-driving cars. The empirical analysis provides support for the importance of the three types of system reconfiguration and emphasises the relevance of different types of assets. Furthermore, it highlights how actors tend to utilise previous networks and positions in global innovation systems rather than turning to the development of system functions regionally as the ‘default option’ of system reconfiguration.