Evidence for Complexities in the RHX Dating Method

The rehydroxylation (RHX) dating method applicable to virtually all baked clay fragments still requires testing and new developments. Here, we have obtained new weighing measurements from Syrian medieval ceramic fragments. In particular, they allow us to illustrate the scatter in RHX behaviour that may exist between different potsherds of the same age and found at the same archaeological site, thus having experienced the same effective lifetime temperature, and even between samples collected from the same artefact. Thanks to a so‐called time‐span analysis, we also report on some complexities in data sets previously obtained by Wilson et al. (2009, 2012, 2014).     

Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited

For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already with us. According to this view, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced within Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration; and this migration in turn exacerbated the socio-economic stresses that underpinned Syria's descent into war. This article provides a systematic interrogation of these claims, and finds little merit to them. Amongst other things it shows that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in Syria's pre-civil war drought; that this drought did not cause anywhere near the scale of migration that is often alleged; and that there exists no solid evidence that drought migration pressures in Syria contributed to civil war onset. The Syria case, the article finds, does not support ‘threat multiplier’ views of the impacts of climate change; to the contrary, we conclude, policymakers, commentators and scholars alike should exercise far greater caution when drawing such linkages or when securitising climate change.     

The consequences of internal displacement on civil war violence: Evidence from Syria

How do flows of internally displaced persons (IDPs) affect wartime violence? We argue that government and rebel forces respond to IDP flows in different ways, which condition where and when they employ violence. State responses are driven by the need to identify insurgents and their civilian supporters, and depend on how much information they have about where IDPs are coming from and where they are seeking to resettle. Rebel responses are driven by their need to monitor and control civilian movements, which leads to more violence against civilians in transit areas heavily trafficked by IDPs. Drawing on novel subnational data from Syria, we employ social network analysis to examine migration flow characteristics beyond aggregate IDP inflows and outflows. We find that the greater the local clustering of IDP flows – i.e., the less complex and diverse displacement movements are – the more pro-government combatants are able to detect IDPs’ origins and destinations, and the higher the number of civilian killings. Transit locations, meanwhile, become epicenters of rebel violence against civilians. While scholars have found that more information about civilian behavior causes combatants to employ more selective violence, our results suggest that more information about displacement prompts more collective violence from governments. The findings also indicate that governments respond to IDP flows after movement, whereas rebels respond to IDP flows during movement. This underscores the importance of focusing on how armed groups respond to displacement flows in order to better understand the consequences of population movements in wartime.     

Ottoman Maps of the Empire’s Arab Provinces, 1850s to the First World War

In recent years the central Ottoman archive in Istanbul has been gradually releasing and computerizing thousands of maps stored in its collections. Our study introduces 137 maps already available to researchers that focus either directly or indirectly as part of broader presentations of imperial domains on the Ottoman Empire’s Arab provinces. These maps, which all date to between the middle of the nineteenth century and the First World War, differ widely in character, content and function. The maps are briefly described according to their content and set in their historical context.     

Limits of incremental growth in seasonality studies: The example of the clariid pectoral spines from the Byzantino-Islamic site of Apamea (Syria; sixth to seventh century AD)

An evaluation is given of the value for seasonality studies of incremental growth in the pectoral spines of the Nile catfish Clarias gariepinus. The subfossil spines used for this study are from a Byzantino-Islamic site in Syria, and probably all derive from animals captured on the floodplain during the yearly inundation of the nearby Orontes river, although only 45 per cent of the spines could be recognized as deriving from fish captured during that period. It is believed that the inability to date accurately the season of capture of the other specimens is due to disadvantages inherent in the growth cycle of the fish. For the moment it is possible to determine the season of death only of individuals that were taken during a period of rapid growth.