China's "Dash for Gas": Challenges and Potential Impacts on Global Markets

Two UK-based researchers examine the significant recent growth in China's demand for natural gas, a fuel not long ago considered of marginal importance but now viewed as critical for the country's future economic growth. Based on a range of databases as well as industry and media reports, the authors demonstrate how rapid demand growth since 2005 has transformed China from a minor, self-sufficient gas producer to a major buyer on international gas markets. They also analyze projections for future demand growth (25 years), showing China's demand for gas will grow faster that anywhere else in the world, and explore the potential for development of China's substantial domestic gas reserves to mitigate import demand over the short to medium term. The study concludes with an assessment of China's potential impact on global gas markets over short, intermediate, and long time horizons.     

China's Exchange Rate Controversy: A Balanced Analysis

A noted American authority on China's economy and monetary policy presents a statistical as well as theoretical analysis of a variety of perspectives on the controversy surrounding China's currency, basing his paper on both. The author provides the historical background and comprehensive summaries, focusing on different viewpoints about whether China's currency is undervalued, and thus may contribute to global imbalances. In the paper, he divides observers involved in the controversy into two main camps, namely the ones who find China's trade balances to be sensitive to price effects through exchange rate adjustments and those who emphasize other factors as bearing the responsibility for China's large surpluses, including the U.S. credit bubble emerging before the global financial crisis, as well as a version of Dutch disease.     

China's Energy Future: A Framing Comment

A noted Hong Kong-based specialist on China's energy industries presents a comment on three papers comprising a symposium on that country's rapidly expanding oil, natural gas, and nuclear power sectors. He frames his observations around five overarching themes that have shaped China's energy sector development over recent decades and will continue to do so in the future. These include observations to the effect that: (a) China's energy policy seeks broadly similar objectives to those of other countries; (b) the country's energy resource endowment is not particularly rich when viewed in relation to the size of its population; (c) its energy mix continues to be dominated by coal, with important implications for the environment and domestic freight transportation; (d) the country's economy is confronting a pronounced spatial mismatch between the location of energy resources and the markets where they are consumed; and (e) strategies for energy developments in China are closely tied to overriding political and economic concerns at any given point in time.     

新经济史视域下中日现代化的制度比较

要进行现代化尝试,必须形成一定发达程度的商品经济以及在此基础上资本主义的发展,并建立一整套有效的产权制度。形成现代意义上的民族国家以及在此基础上的中央权威。形成具有现代性的思想文化以及在此基础上的知识分子和社会群体的壮大。由于制度的差异,具体国情和历史起点不同,中日两国所走的现代化道路也不同。从而产生了不同的结果。     

鲁斯扶蒋原因探析

在现代中美关系史中,美国“新闻大王”鲁斯以“扶蒋反共”著称。从1936年起,在30余年的时间里,鲁斯通过其掌握的《时代》周刊、《生活》画报、《财富》杂志等媒体,将蒋介石描述为“坚强”、“民主”的中国领袖和领导中国走向美国式现代化的基督战士,力图通过操纵公众舆论,影响美国对华政策。鲁斯扶助蒋介石,与其所处的时代和出生于中国的身世背景密切相关。从表面上看,其目的是为中国寻求现代化发展之路,实现美国化中国的梦想;而在更深的层面上,则是为实现“美国世纪”构想而采取的重要步骤,表现出强烈的“美国至上”的倾向。     

试论朝鲜王朝尊明贬清的理论基础

明清时期的中朝关系一般被视为典型的朝贡关系,但在文化心态上,朝鲜一直采取尊明贬清的态度。朝鲜把明朝看成中华的化身,把满洲看成夷狄,明朝灭亡以后,朝鲜以“小中华”自居,因现实政治的需要,朝鲜大肆宣扬明朝的正统,贬斥清朝的正统。朝鲜以宋时烈为代表的性理学家,以朱熹的思想为基准,形成了以尊华攘夷为中心的华夷观作为他们处理与清朝外交关系的准则。他们对于正统论的论述,依从朱熹的思想,且只关心中国历史上王朝的正统性,而不关心其本国历史上王朝的正统性。这是朝鲜后期儒家性理学思想的一大特色,也是其尊明贬清的理论基础。     

西汉前期的蜀商在中外文化交流史上的贡献

西汉前期的巴蜀商人活动能量十分惊人。他们把蜀地的商品远销至中亚、印度、东南亚、东北亚等地。他们充当了南方走私贸易的主角。岭南和西南地区成为走私行为蔓延和滋生的温床。南印度迈索尔出土的公元前138年的古汉钱,似应与蜀地的走私商人有关,正与《史记》所记载的蜀身毒道相印证。汉武帝消灭南越国,平定西南夷,蜀商走私活动赖以生存的环境和土壤荡然无存。在中国历史舞台上纵横捭阖数百年的巴蜀商人集团从此黯然失色。他们在中外文化交流中所发挥的作用也从此微不足道了。     

试论中国跪拜礼仪的废除

跪拜礼是封建社会中尊卑贵贱等级制的重要礼仪表现形式。 1873年外国使臣以鞠躬或作揖礼觐见同治帝的事实 ,如同一个强有力的楔子 ,严重动摇了传统跪拜礼仪的权威与根基 ;西方国家礼制、礼仪书籍的传入 ,清廷出使官员对外国政治与外交礼仪的感知 ,均使国人对跪拜礼仪进行深刻的反思 ;资产阶级革命派不但对跪拜等旧礼俗进行了猛烈抨击 ,而且身体力行 ,以握手、鞠躬代替跪拜与长揖之礼。跪拜礼已深深积淀于民族意识之中 ,因此废除跪拜礼需要借助政权的力量。 1912年 ,中华民国政府以法律的形式正式废除在中国实行了数千年之久的跪拜礼。这既是辛亥革命的结果 ,同时又是国人对中西礼制长期比较、反思后的自然选择     

"市镇研究"大有可为--"中国江南市镇国际学术研讨会"综述

2003年底在浙江湖州召开的“中国江南市镇国际学术研讨会”上,学们提交的论涉及市镇研究的多个层面,有宏观研究,也有中观、微观研究,有关注经济的,还有关注社会的,展示了近一时期我国江南市镇研究的最新成果。但目前市镇研究有很多空白点,大有章可做,有待学们作进一步研究。     

战国秦汉西南边疆思想的区域性特征初探

文章主要对战国秦汉时期西南边疆思想的区域性特征进行了探讨,认为西南边疆开发的战略思想、经济思想和人才思想均表现出有别于其他地区的区域特征。在战国秦汉时期边疆开拓的战略思想和整体布局中,西南边疆虽然处于从属地位,开发实践中表现出一定的应急性和随意性,但开发成就显著,这与西南边疆开发策略思想的正确和实施的有效性有密切关系。北南向协济的区域经济思想和以西南本土籍巴蜀人治理西南边疆的人才思想指导下所确定的开发方略和治边措施,就是充分依托战国以来200余年西南北部巴蜀的开发成就和资源,进行西南南部边疆的开发和治理。