Effects of Different Record Selection Methods on the Transverse Seismic Response of a Bridge in South Western British Columbia

The seismic response of a continuous 4-span bridge designed according to the current Canadian seismic provisions is investigated using Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA). Different earthquake types, including shallow crustal events, interface Cascadia subduction, and deep inslab subduction are considered. The median collapse capacities calculated using different record selection methods including Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS)-based, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS)-based, and epsilon-based methods are compared. The use of the epsilon-based method generally resulted in the highest collapse capacity predictions, but the CMS-based method was less sensitive to the number of records considered in the IDA.     

On exposure,vulnerability and violence: Spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda

Recent studies discuss the link between climate change and violent conflict, especially for East Africa. While there is extensive literature on the question whether climate change increases the risk of violent conflict onset, not much is known about where a climate-conflict link is most likely to be found. We address this question by analyzing the spatial distribution of the factors commonly associated with a high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, and a high risk of violent conflict onset in Kenya and Uganda. Drawing on recent literature and quantitative data for the period 1998–2008, we develop various specifications of a composite risk index (CRI) with a spatial resolution of half a degree for Kenya and Uganda in the year 2008. A quantitative comparison with conflict data for the year 2008 provides support for the composite risk index. Finally, the composite risk index is contrasted with the findings of three qualitative case studies, which provide mixed support for the index and help to identify its strengths and weaknesses as well as conceptual needs for further quantitative studies on climate change and violent conflict.     

Perceived Risk and Citizen Preferences for Governmental Management of Routine Hazards

Risk perceptions are important to the policy process because they inform individuals’ preferences for government management of hazards that affect personal safety, public health, or ecological conditions. Studies of risk in the policy process have often focused on explicating the determinants of risk perceptions for highly salient, high consequence hazards (e.g., nuclear energy). We argue that it is useful to also study more routinely experienced hazards; doing so shows the relevance of risk perceptions in individuals’ daily lives. Our investigation focuses on the impact perceived risk has on citizens’ preferences over hazard management policies (as distinct from identifying risk perception determinants per se). We use a recursive structural equation model to analyze public opinion data measuring attitudes in three distinct issue domains: air pollution, crime, and hazardous waste storage and disposal. We find that citizens utilize perceived risk rationally: greater perceived risk generally produces support for more proactive government to manage potential hazards. This perceived risk–policy response relationship generally holds even though the policy options respondents were asked to consider entailed nontrivial costs to the public. The exception seems to be when individuals know less about the substantive issue domain.     

Dynamic optimization of horticulture among the Muscogee Creek Indians of the southeastern United States

This paper reviews archaeological applications of optimization theory applied to resource use. A model of agricultural corn production is derived for a single Muscogee Creek Indian town (CA 1725–1825) which was situated in the southeastern United States. The corn productivity model is based on soil depletion, soil variation, known locations of horticultural fields, population size, and nutritional requirements. The corn productivity model shows that corn production varied significantly between 1725 and 1825. The residents of the town shifted their horticultural gardens in order to maintain a nutritional minimum. The model was compared to the marginal value theorem and expectations derived from risk minimization models. Residents of Cussetuh abandoned their horticultural fields well before the instantaneous long-term average rate of production for the habitat. The model shows that the residents of Cussetuh were risk minimizers and were not maximizing the long term average rate of corn yield in their gardens.     

Archaeological markers of agricultural risk management

Managing agricultural risk, or variance in annual production, is a priority for farmers and herders. This article reviews the ethnographic and historical literature on agricultural risk management and identifies diversification and intensification as two distinct approaches to managing risk. Quantitative analysis of plant and animal remains from archaeological sites produces robust datasets that can be used to test predictions of risk management models related to diversification and intensification strategies. I present a variety of established and novel paleoethnobotanical and zooarchaeological measures that have implications for risk management and argue that multiple lines of evidence are needed to identify risk-management practices from archaeological remains. The article concludes with a case study of the multiperiod urban center of Gordion in central Turkey, where quantitative analysis of plant and animal remains demonstrates diachronic changes in agricultural risk management over 3000 years of occupation.     

A New Proposed Passive Mega-Sub Controlled Structure and Response Control

It is still a serious challenge for structural engineers to effectively reduce the seismic responses of tall and super tall buildings to further improve these structural safeties. In order to solve this problem, in this article a new kind of structural configuration, named passive mega-sub controlled structure (PMSCS), is presented, which is constructed by applying the structural control principle into structural configuration itself, to form a new structure with obvious response self-control ability, instead of employing the conventional method. In the analysis of PMSCS the equations of motion of the seismically excited system are developed, based on a realistic analytical model of the complete mega-structural system. Expressions of the displacement and acceleration response of the structure, resulting from simulated earthquake ground motions represented by stationary and nonstationary random processes, are derived. These responses are then determined for both the PMSCS and its conventional mega-sub structure (MSS) counterpart, whose configuration was modeled after the traditional mega-frame that was used in the construction of the Tokyo City Hall. A parametric study of the structural characteristics that influence the response control effectiveness of the PMSCS is presented and discussed. The region over which these structural characteristics yield the optimum seismic response control of the PMSCS is identified and serves as a very useful design tool for practitioners. The study illustrates that the proposed PMSCS offers an effective means of controlling the seismic displacement and acceleration response of tall/super-tall mega-systems. It also overcomes shortcomings exhibited in earlier proposed mega-sub controlled structural configurations.     

A Damage Index for the Seismic Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Members

This article proposes a damage index for the seismic analysis of Reinforced Concrete members using the hysteretic energy dissipated by a structural member and a drift ratio related to failure in the structure. The index was calibrated against observed damage in laboratory tests of 76 RC column units under various protocols. Values obtained in this calibration had acceptable agreement with the levels of damage observed in the test specimens. An analysis of the parameters involved in the definition of the proposed damage index shows the importance of displacement history in the drift ratio capacity of structures.     

Experimental Investigation on the Seismic Behavior of Beam-Column Joints Reinforced with Superelastic Shape Memory Alloys

Superelastic Shape Memory Alloys (SE SMAs) are unique alloys that have the ability to undergo large deformations and return to their undeformed shape by removal of stresses. This study aims at assessing the seismic behavior of beam-column joints reinforced with SE SMAs. Two large-scale beam-column joints were tested under reversed cyclic loading. While the first joint was reinforced with regular steel rebars, SE SMA rebars were used in the second one. Both joints were selected from a Reinforced Concrete (RC) building located in the high seismic region of western Canada and designed and detailed according to current Canadian standards. The behavior of the two specimens under reversed cyclic loading, including their drifts, rotations, and ability to dissipate energy, were compared. The results showed that the SMA-reinforced beam-column joint specimen was able to recover most of its post-yield deformation. Thus, it would require a minimum amount of repair even after a strong earthquake.     

Self-Centering Behavior of Unbonded,Post-Tensioned Precast Concrete Shear Walls

Self-centering ability of unbonded post-tensioned precast concrete shear walls has been attributed to the presence of post-tensioning force. However, the experimental results presented in this paper indicate that the post-tensioning force may completely die out during cyclic loading while the walls are able to retain their superior self-centering characteristic. Moreover, the analytical study presented in this article indicates that with proper configuration of end-anchorages for post-tensioned tendons, self-centering of post-tensioned walls can be achieved even when the post-tensioning force vanishes. This study also investigates the effects of tendon layout, tendon end-anchorage configuration, and external vertical load on the self-centering ability of unbonded precast concrete shear walls subjected to earthquake loading.