促进还是抑制:中国对非直接投资的对外援助效应

论文聚焦中国对非援助与对非直接投资的不确定性关系,将援助细分为社会基础设施援助、实物资本援助、经济基础设施援助、政府和民间社会援助四种类型,构建了援助与投资的解析模型;基于中国对非洲52个国家的援助项目数和直接投资项目数,利用分位数回归方法,分别考察了中国对非援助项目总量及各类型援助在对非直接投资项目中的作用。研究发现：①中国对非援助集中在东非、南非,援助项目总数、各类型援助项目数、对非直接投资项目的空间分布具有很高的相似性。②中国对非援助类型结构相对均衡,对非援助在中国对非直接投资中发挥着先锋促进效应。其中,经济基础设施援助的促进效应强劲、稳定,且强度随分位数提高有浅U型变动特征;实物资本援助、社会基础设施援助的促进作用分别在对非直接投资项目少、中等数量下促进效果显著;政府和民间援助的促进作用不显著。③友好城市关系、出口关系与双边政治关系分别仅在中国对非直接投资项目较少、中等规模、大规模情形下显著,空间关系的影响不显著。④受援国人口规模的促进影响最清晰、最稳健;成本规避、资源寻求、受援国的投资环境质量和腐败状况的影响尚不清晰。中国在非投资有追随他国投资区位的倾向,但这一倾向仅在经济基础设施模型中显著。     

Patterns and Determinants of Historical Woodland Clearing in Central‐Western New South Wales,Australia

We consider the history of woodland clearing in central western New South Wales, Australia, which has led to the present highly cleared and fragmented landscape. A combined approach is used examining available historical land‐use data and using regression analysis to relate the pattern of cleared and wooded areas in the recent landscape to environmental variables, taking into account the contagious nature of clearing. We also ask whether it would be possible to apply a simple simulation modelling approach to reconstruct a credible historical sequence of clearing in the study area. The historical data indicate that annual clearing rates have varied substantially in the study area and selective tree removal (ringbarking and thinning) has been common. These findings make it unlikely that a simple simulation approach would replicate the spatial and temporal sequence of woodland loss. Our regression results show that clearing patterns can be related to environmental variables, particularly annual rainfall and estimated pre‐European vegetation type, but that patterns are dominated by contagion.     

社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响研究

我国正步入老龄化社会,社会交往活动对实现健康老龄化具有积极作用,深入理解社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响,是促进老年人身心健康的重要途径.本文基于2015年"第四次中国城乡老年人生活状况抽样调查"数据,运用多水平回归模型,重点考察社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响.研究发现,我国老年人36％的社会交往水平差异...     

Breathless: Schools, Air Toxics, and Environmental Justice in California

The exposure of children to environmental disamenities has emerged as a key policy concern in recent years, with some analysts and activists suggesting that minority children are disproportionately impacted. Utilizing a dataset that combines air toxics at the census tract level with school-based demographic and other information, this article indicates disparate exposures for students of color in California schools and suggests that there may be negative impacts on one measure of academic performance, even after controlling for other factors usually associated with test scores. Policy implications include a special focus on school remediation and strengthening overall efforts to reduce emissions "hot spots."     

Modelling spatial heterogeneity and nonstationarity in artifact-rich landscapes

In this paper we consider a crucial issue for survey archaeology: how we identify and make sense of the heterogeneous and often inter-dependent behaviours and processes responsible for apparent archaeological patterns across the landscape. We apply two spatial statistical tools, kriging and geographically weighted regression, to develop a model that addresses the spatial heterogeneity and spatial nonstationarity present in the pottery distributions identified by our intensive survey of the Greek island of Antikythera. Our modelling results highlight a clear spatial structure underlying different scales of pottery density as well as locally varying relationships between pottery densities and several environmental variables. This allows us to develop further testable hypotheses about long-term settlement and land-use patterns on Antikythera, including more explicit models of community organisation, and of the relationship between the island's geomorphological structure and its history of past human activity.     

Dynamics of Land Surface Temperature in Response to Land‐Use/Cover Change

In this study, we employed Geographical Information Systems and remote sensing techniques to investigate the impact of land‐use/cover change on land surface temperature (LST) in a rapidly urbanisation city, Kunming in south‐west China. Spatial patterns of LST and land use for 1992 and 2006 were derived from Landsat images to examine how LST responded to urban growth. Remote sensing indices were used to quantify land‐use types and employed as explanatory variables in LST modelling. The geographically weighted regression (GWR), a location dependent model, was performed to explore the influences of the spatially varied land‐use conditions on the LST patterns. Results revealed that rapid urbanisation in Kunming altered the local thermal environment, particularly in increasing the LST in the zone surrounding the urban core. Remote sensing indices demonstrated that water and vegetation played an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, while built‐up and barren land accounted for the increase in LST. The GWR improved the goodness‐of‐fit for LST modelling and provided insights into the spatially varied relationship between LST and land‐use conditions.     

How much does urban location matter for growth?

This paper analyses the effect of location characteristics on urban growth using regression cubic splines. Our empirical analysis shows that in Spain, differences in accessibility to major urban centres and geographic isolation help explain differences in population growth rates across municipalities between 2001 and 2014. Moreover, even though physical proximity to large cities is usually assumed to be closely related to the attractiveness of a municipality, we found that urban population growth is even more related to the joint effect of distance to major centres and agglomeration. In this respect, there seems to be a threshold from which agglomeration diseconomies come into play such that a greater proximity to major cities and/or being localized within a more densely populated area goes against local growth.     

邻里环境感知对中国城市居民自评健康影响研究——以武汉市为例

邻里作为城市居民的重要日常生活场所，对健康的影响引起广泛关注。本文选取武汉市南湖街道这一典型住区，运用多元回归分析，针对商品房和保障房邻里展开对比研究，解析不同类型邻里中居民的邻里环境感知对自评健康的影响差异。研究发现，控制个人因素后，体育休闲设施感知、归属感和安全感显示出对自评健康独立且显著的影响。而在对比研究中，商品房邻里的居民自评健康受邻里环境感知的影响较显著，而保障房邻里的居民自评健康受个体层面特征的影响较显著。因此，宜针对不同类型邻里制定差异化的社区健康提升策略。