我国东西部地区差异的实证研究与收敛性的R/S分析

本介绍了赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB)的计算方法,分析了我国改革开放以来的东西部人均GDP的差异,试图用分形理论中的R／S分析法分析1978--1999年我国基尼系数的收敛性约分形特征,得到赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB),进而分析这个时间序列的发展特性,并预测我国区域经济发展差异的未来变化趋势,提出政策建议,为国家的宏观调控政策提供理论上的依据。     

Agency Evolution, New Institutionalism, and 'Hybrid' Policy Domains: Lessons from the 'Greening' of the U.S. Military

Neoinstitutionalists applying the logic of rational choice institutionalism have leavened our understanding of public agency design and evolution in the domestic and national security policy domains. This paper seeks to advance theory building in empirically grounded ways by assessing the explanatory power of an important theoretical perspective (rational choice institutionalism), in an understudied "hybrid" policy domain where domestic and national security aims interact (domestic environmental policy and national security policy), and in an organizational type (the U.S. military) that has drawn scant attention from students of bureaucracy in political science, public administration, or public management. Analysis of three major efforts to green the U.S. military suggests that the patterns of politics accompanying agency evolution involving hybrid policy domains differ from domestic and national security domains in ways that limit the generalizability of rational choice institutionalism.     

LOCALIZING HISTORICAL CLUES USING IRT AND PETROGRAPHIC ANALYSES AT VILLA MIRABELLO,MONZA (ITALY)*

The rebuilding of Villa Mirabello started in 1666. Built on designs of Gerolamo Quadrio, the project refurbished and enlarged a smaller 16th century country house (‘casa da nobile e da massaro’). Archival documents report on the remodelling, which consisted of selective demolition of portions of the structure, re‐using most of the masonry as the core of the new building, and the reinforcement of retained masonry by insertion of ‘ceppo’ stone quoins to update new exteriors. The aim of Quadrio was to create an elegant and sumptuous mansion, suitable for noble owners such as Giuseppe Durini and his family. The plan and a small part of original finishing (‘marmorino’ plaster decoration) are recognizable nowadays. Nevertheless, there are many questions in interpretation when one compares the documents and the building. That is, Cardinal Angelo Durini made a major modification in the 18th century, and further minor changes were made in the 19th century. Although these latter modifications did not alter the plan, they changed the distribution of rooms and masked both decoration and finishing. After over 20 years of neglect, Villa Mirabello is now close to being restored. Architects in charge ordered a preliminary set of diagnostics to assess damage and study the historical evolution of the building. Integration of IR thermography (IRT) and endoscopy allowed restorers to detect the structure's texture underneath the plaster, and to detect openings filled with masonry. Moreover, archive documents confirmed these results and, above all, defined a date for the use of specific building techniques. This research constitutes a reference for buildings set in the same time and location that do not have significant archival documentation. Active IRT provided useful information for structural assessment (such as location of arches, chimney stacks, different thickness of wall, wooden elements, voids, beams etc.) and for crack pattern evaluation. This information directs design professionals working on this conservation project, and helps define the costs of intervention.     

北美自由贸易协定与美墨关系

北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)的签定是冷战结束后美墨关系发生变化的一个重要标志,是经济全球化过程中的重要发展趋势。美、加、墨通过建立经济合作关系,实行经济自由化、一体化,既有利于三国经济的互利合作,又促进墨西哥的政治经济体制改革,为墨西哥对外经济开放、发展外向型经济提供机遇。但美墨之间由于历史遗留问题以及墨西哥国内依然存在的强烈民族主义倾向,墨西哥经济对美国经济的过分依赖等,使美墨关系还存在不确定的变数。由于墨西哥积极发展与亚太地区和欧盟的经济合作关系,未来美墨关系的发展,以及建立北美自由贸易区统一货币等问题,是对NAFTA的一个严峻考验。     

Oral History and the Gerald R. Ford White House: The Specter of Watergate

For the last sixty years, presidential libraries have providedand preserved critical source materials essential for the studyof the history of presidents of the United States. Oral historiesat those libraries have become an increasingly important partof their key archival collections, with one or two major exceptions.This article analyzes and compares official oral history collectionsat the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library with those of othertwentieth century presidents and seeks to explain why the oralhistories currently available for research there were so limiteduntil Mr. Ford's death in 2006. The reasons for this are anintriguing blend of developed White House policy, benign neglect,the role of tape recorders in bringing Ford to the Oval Office,and the continuing influence of the ghost of the Watergate scandaleven well beyond the years Gerald R. Ford occupied the nation'shighest political office.     

冷战时期苏联对尼泊尔的经济和技术援助

20世纪50年代中期,出于对抗美国在南亚地区的战略影响,苏联与尼泊尔建立了外交关系,对尼援助计划也随之启动。由于受本国经济基础和意识形态等因素的影响,苏联对尼援助的主要领域是工业及其相关产业,对尼援助的主要目的就是扩大其在南亚的战略影响,防止尼泊尔加入西方阵营,同时希望孤立中国以及在尼泊尔培养一个亲苏政权。     

评《抗美援朝战争史》

军事科学院历史研究部出版的150万字的新著《抗美援朝战争史》较之1982年该院军史部撰写的同类著作,在撰写方法和内容上一改以往以志愿军五大战役和谈判期间历次战役的作战经过为主的模式,而把主要内容放在战争背景、外交斗争似及后方支持等方面,这一尝试和努力理应肯定。另一方面,其学术上的欠缺与不足也十分明显,有些问题也值得再作商榷。     

Towards Accommodating Southern Perspectives in Environment and Development Teaching

The trivialisation of the knowledge creation capacity of the South, and the perceptions of the Southern people's inability to provide appropriate analyses of the issues that are epistemologically important to them, are important development education debates. The aims and purpose of this paper are twofold. The first is to describe a new and unique postgraduate (Master's) programme in Environment and Development, which actively seeks to accommodate Southern perspectives in its design and delivery. The second is briefly to evaluate the outcome of the above strategy, with a view to identifying the major strengths and weaknesses of the programme, especially in relation to institutional arrangements to assist programme delivery. The paper concludes that Southern perspectives are important in shaping the worldview of Northern students undertaking postgraduate studies focusing on developing countries. It also acknowledges that it is a challenge to establish a North-South cooperation in the university sector which is truly symmetrical, especially with respect to power relations.     

The challenge of the spaceship: Arthur C. Clarke and the history of the future, 1930–1970

Arthur C. Clarke’s 1946 essay on ‘The Challenge of the Spaceship’ was one of the founding manifestoes of the Space Age, and helped to establish him as the West’s leading techno-prophet. Restating his ideas in subsequent factual and fictional works, Clarke successfully propagated the belief that man’s destiny lay in space and that the process was already underway. On the surface Clarke’s oeuvre offers a classic astrofuturist model of progress as technology-driven, but on closer examination it also incorporates a more pessimistic, historically based strand of philosophy, British rather than American. This essay traces the genesis of Clarke’s early work and the influence upon him of the historian Arnold J. Toynbee and the moral philosophers Olaf Stapledon and C.S. Lewis. Toynbee was essentially a Christian pessimist who believed that western civilization was on the way out; his long historical perspectives were an important source of inspiration for Clarke, leading him to a cyclical rather than a simply progressive model of history which contemplated both the beginning and the end of civilizations. The concerns of Stapledon and Lewis with grand narratives of decline and redemption were also influences on Clarke. All this needs to be understood in relation to both the European experience of World War I and to the coming of the atomic bomb, the latter a profound influence on Clarke’s generation. Such perspectives gave European astroculture a more modulated vision of the human future in space than the technologically based astrofuturism which dominated in the USA.