Developments in Russian Gas Production Since 1998: Russia's Evolving Gas Supply Strategy

An American geographer and prominent authority on the oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union reports on overall trends in Russia's natural gas production in the years following the country's ruble devaluation and financial crisis. The account—based on systematic in-country observations, discussions/interviews with industry executives, and a review of industry sources—focuses on factors affecting domestic supply and demand as well as export capacity (will Russia have enough gas to meet rising domestic demand while fulfilling its export obligations?), regional patterns of production (and performance of Gazprom regional production enterprises), obstacles to the use of associated gas derived from crude oil extraction, and major pipeline construction projects in West Siberia and the Russian Far East. The paper concludes by outlining CERA's forecast for Russian gas production to 2020, also disaggregated by region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 7 figures, 8 tables, 51 references.     

On the geochemistry of gases and noble gas isotopes (including 222Rn) in deep crustal fluids: the 4000 m KTB-pilot hole fluid production test 2002–03

The concentrations of H₂, O₂, CO₂, and concentrations and isotopic composition of the noble gases (including ²²²Rn), N₂, CH₄, and higher hydrocarbons dissolved in 4000 m deep‐seated fluids from a 12‐month fluid production test in the KTB pilot hole were analyzed. This determination of the gas geochemistry during the test in combination with the knowledge of the hydraulic data provides relevant information about the fluid hydraulics of the deep system. All gas concentrations and isotopic signatures, except for ²²²Rn, showed constancy during the course of the test. This, in combination with large fluid flow rates at a moderate water table drawdown, imply an almost infinite fluid reservoir in 4000 m depth. From the change in ²²²Rn‐activity as a function of pump rate, the contribution of smaller and wider pores to the overall fluid flow in an aquifer can be deduced. This ²²²Rn‐activity monitoring proved therefore to be a valuable instrument for the qualitative observation of the scavenging of pore and fracture surfaces, a hydraulic feature invisible to standard hydraulic testing tools. The observance of this scavenging effect is due to (i) the continuous on‐line geochemical monitoring, (ii) the durability of the test, (iii) a change in pump rate during the course of the test, and (iv) due to the short half‐life of ²²²Rn. The fluids have a 5.9% mantle He component, and a δ²¹Ne excess of 14%, and a noble gas model age of about (5.5–6.2) ± 2.0 Myr. The mean N₂/Ar‐ratio of 516 and δ¹⁵N‐data of about +1.5‰ indicates sedimentary or metamorphic origin of N₂. The hydrocarbons, amounting to 33 vol.% in the gas phase, are derived from thermal decomposition of marine organic matter of low maturity. But a key question, the identification of the potential source region of the fluids and the migration pathway, is still unidentified.     

二叶亭四迷与鲁迅的关系考辨

二叶亭四迷作为日本近代文学的奠基人,在日本文学史中曾被埋没多年。同样,在中日两国的鲁研界,谈及对鲁迅产生影响的日本作家,二叶亭也不在其列。但是二叶亭在鲁迅留日期间发表了大量的俄罗斯文学及文论的译文,这成为鲁迅通往俄罗斯文学道路上的一座重要的桥粱。在小说创作上,因为中日两国近代社会变革和小说流变有着惊人的相似,二叶亭作为筚路蓝缕者,替鲁迅完成了过渡期的挣扎和探索,使鲁迅在高于历史的平台上起步,一举奠定了在中国现代小说史上的地位。     

Seismic evidence for fluid migration pathways from an overpressured system in the South China Sea

Overpressured systems and intense, anomalously hot fluid expulsion in the Yinggehai Basin of the South China Sea offer an opportunity to understand the history of fluid flow and the process of hydrocarbon accumulation in overpressured environments. Fluid migration pathways from overpressured compartments in the basin are largely controlled by the distribution of faults and fractures. Episodic opening of these faults are related to the dynamics of an overpressured system and tectonic movements during basin evolution. At the crests of diapiric structures, fluid expulsion is seismically imaged as chimney‐ or plume‐like features, low to middle seismic amplitudes, and intermittently chaotic and blank reflecting seismic facies. These fluid pathways are controlled by vertical faults, which commonly penetrate overpressured and overlying normally pressured zones. Fluid expulsion is also observed near the main faults, such as the No. 1 Fault at the north‐eastern margin of the basin. Investigation by sidescan sonar on onshore and offshore Hainan Island indicates that there are more than 100 gas seepages adjacent to the No. 1 Fault. Migration pathways in the diapiric structures are controlled by three types of fault and fracture. Penetrative faults formed by dextral strike‐slip movement of the Red River faults commonly occur in the centre of the diapirs, and may have been a triggering factor for the diapirism, and controlled their distribution. Hydrofractures occur in certain mud‐rich layers and may have been generated by hydraulic fracturing. Radial normal faults occur at the top of diapirs and were formed by the intrusive process. These fluid migration pathways played an important role in regional hydrocarbon accumulation.     

Petroleum type determination through homogenization temperature and vapour volume fraction measurements in fluid inclusions

Physical parameters of petroleum‐bearing fluid inclusions such as bulk density (ρ), molar volume (V_m), vapour volume fraction (?_vap) and homogenization temperature (T_h) are essential information to model petroleum composition (x) in inclusions and to reconstruct palaeotemperature and palaeopressure of trapping. For the main petroleum types contained in a fluid inclusion, we can follow how ?_vap and T_h are simultaneously influenced by a change of bulk density in a ?_vap versus T_h projection. We have correlated T_h and ?_vap for different petroleum compositions for a large range of bulk density values. However, postentrapment events under new pressure (P) and temperature (T) conditions can greatly modify the initial fingerprints of physical conditions and chemical composition of fluid inclusions. Re‐equilibration is frequent, especially in the case of fragile minerals. Stretching and leakage phenomenon have been simulated using the Petroleum Inclusion Thermodynamics (pit ) software, from virtual petroleum inclusions with known hydrocarbon composition. The aim of these simulations is to understand how ?_vap and T_h evolve with these re‐equilibration phenomena, with respect to the oil composition. Results of stretching simulations show a characteristic increase of T_h and ?_vap along correlation curves, with the curve shape dependent on petroleum composition. Leakage simulations show an increase of T_h and a smaller increase or even a decrease in ?_vap. Consequently, the better preserved inclusions in a given population can be presumed to be those that have the lowest T_h. Applications of T_h and ?_vap measurements of natural inclusions in calcite and in quartz showed that the fragility of the host mineral is a key factor allowing the recording of post‐entrapment events. Inclusions that have stretched or leaked are identified and the best preserved inclusions selected for evaluation of P–T–x trapping conditions. Moreover, petroleum types trapped in inclusions can be identified from ?_vap and T_h measurements without compositional modelling.     

Managing Policy Dilemmas in South Korea: The Case of the Emissions Trading Scheme

This paper analyses the policy dilemma of South Korea’s Lee Myung-bak government regarding the greenhouse gas Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the cornerstone of the government’s Low Carbon Green Growth (GG) policy. The paper analyses policy governance, with a focus on the deliberative nature of the policy process. The ETS was promoted as a way to overcome certain international, political and socioeconomic challenges facing the government, yet the process of its establishment featured severe confrontations between the stakeholders (industrialists and environmentalists), and a lack of effort on the part of the government to pursue deliberation with them, resulting in a significant policy dilemma. The government reacted passively at first, and later responded with a symbolic decision that failed to pursue deliberative processes and exacerbated the situation. This paper addresses the theoretical and policy implications of this policy process by identifying the mechanism that created the policy dilemma. The reliability and validity of the study are substantiated through a multi-strategy approach, including a review of the literature and an in-depth interview with a government economic official.     

Nationalism and revolution: friends or foes?

Nationalism and revolution have generally been held to go together. Many nation‐states have had their origins in revolution, from the Americans in the 18th century to a host of Third World nation‐states in the 20th century. Generally, both modern revolutions and modern nationalism have the same origins, in 18th century Enlightenment thought. But this paper argues that, despite this common origin, the principles of revolution and nationalism are divergent, and can set one against the other. Revolutions emphasise freedom and equality; nationalism emphasises integration and unification. These principles can clash, though not inevitably and not always. The paper examines the 1789 French Revolution, the 1848 revolutions and the 1917 Russian revolution. It shows that in the first two cases, revolutionary aspirations came up against and were eventually displaced by nationalist aims. In the case of 1917, revolution paradoxically, and unintentionally, institutionalised nationalism. These examples show that, though linked at some high level of modern thought, revolution and nationalism express different and at times divergent strands of modernity.     

Russia’s energy relations with China: passing the strategic threshold?

This article examines Russian energy policies toward China over the past decade as reluctant engagement changed into a priority energy partnership. From 2008 to 2016 Russian and Chinese companies signed several major oil and gas agreements, a period in which Moscow reassessed China as a future energy consumer and lifted bilateral cooperation to a new level. The article utilizes the strategic partnership concept as an analytical framework and finds traditional realist concepts and hedging inadequate for this particular case. The study illuminates Russian geopolitical considerations and acceptance of vulnerability, which combined make long-term Russian energy policies more China dependent. Officially, Russia seeks diversification among Asian energy buyers, but its focus has increasingly been on China. Western sanctions imposed in 2014 for Russia’s role in Ukraine accelerated this trend. Moscow’s energy policies toward Beijing with its pipelines and long-term agreements are permanent arrangements that resemble strategic partnership policies. China is eager to increase energy relations with Russian companies, but Beijing also ensures that it does not become too dependent on one supplier. Russian concern over its increased dependence on China in the East is deemed secondary to expanding Russia’s customer base beyond the still-dominant European market.     

Russia’s gas “Triopoly”: implications of a changing gas sector structure

The growth strategies of the two largest so-called independent Russian gas producers – Novatek and Rosneft – as well as developments in international markets and changing domestic energy needs have put pressure on the present Russian gas sector model dominated by Gazprom. The three companies are involved in a struggle over export liberalization as well as the conditions in the domestic market. Liquefied natural gas is top priority for Novatek and Rosneft’s main gas focus is on eastern Russia and Asia, but there is still room for considerable tension with Gazprom. The government wants to both improve Russia’s position in export markets and maintain stable domestic supplies, including to socially disadvantaged regions and institutions. Gazprom is insisting that if further access to export markets is granted to the Independents, then they must take greater responsibility for domestic market obligations. On the other hand, the key Independents seem intent on stopping or slowing down their expansion in the domestic market in order to prioritize export sales, and will certainly not take broader domestic supply responsibilities without better access to export markets. The balancing of policies involves strong players on the Russian economic and political scene, all with ties to the Kremlin.