Resilience unpacked – framing of ‘uncertainty’ and ‘adaptability’ in long-term flood risk management strategies for London and Rotterdam

Resilience is held as a promising concept to produce a paradigm shift from traditional flood control to an integration of flood risk management and spatial planning. Central ideas to the resilience narrative are that ‘nothing is certain except uncertainty itself’ and ‘adaptability’ is key to ‘governing the unknown’. However, this terminology is far from clear, yet increasingly used, which raises the question how it is made sense of in practice. To answer this question, we examine two long-term flood risk management strategies in the London and Rotterdam region with a policy framing perspective (i.e. the English Thames Estuary 2100 Plan and the Dutch Delta Programme). In both strategies, uncertainties are a key concern, leading to adaptive strategic plans. Reconstructing the framing processes shows that the English adopted a ‘scientific pragmatism’ frame and the Dutch a ‘joint fact-finding’ frame. While this led to different governance approaches, there are also striking parallels. Both cases use established methods such as scenario planning and monitoring to ‘manage’ uncertainties. Similarly to previous turns in flood risk management, the resilience narrative seems to be accommodated in a technical-rational way, resulting in policy strategies that are maintaining the status quo rather than bringing about a paradigm shift.     

Evaluating soil resilience in long-term cultivation: a study of pre-Columbian terraces from the Paca Valley, Peru

This study evaluated the soil properties of pre-Hispanic stone-walled terraces by comparing soil quality along terraced catenas in the Paca Valley, a tributary of the Mantaro Valley, Peru. Micromorphological and bulk analyses of terrace soils revealed that despite terracing soil horizonation largely followed the catena. Upland terraced fields had deeper A-horizons with higher biotic activity than uncultivated controls, but less fine material and greater carbonate accumulation. Midslope fields were highly variable in depth and soil properties reflecting considerable substrate and anthropogenic variations in this growing zone. Silts and clay accumulated in valley bottom terraces where pedofeatures indicate an ongoing downhill movement of fine material. The distribution of soil separates down Paca hillsides demonstrates that terraces help moderate, rather than control, the erosion of key soil fractions required for long-term agricultural productivity. This study illustrates how the loss of fine material is partly mitigated by soil consolidation in dense topsoil peds, microaggregates and saprolite. These aggregates are retained by terraces and contribute to deep soil profiles. Nevertheless, many fields show signs of degradation, especially from insufficient organic matter amendment. In addition to farming itself, buried soils and associated artefacts in valley bottom fields indicate mass soil movement, a likely result of disruption caused by Inca road and terrace construction. The poor soil quality of many upland terraces also confirms that stone-walled terraces were constructed on mediocre substrates for farming, indicating a high labour investment for marginal agricultural returns in these areas. Overall, Paca Valley terraces improve topsoil retention and promote deep soil profiles. However, these fields present quite varied growing substrates. It is also apparent that over the last millennium, soil depletion from cultivation has compromised soil quality through loss of fine material and organic matter. Shifts in farming practice away from pre-Hispanic practices such as long-fallow and middening appear to exacerbate this trend.     

An 8000-year history of landscape,climate, and copper exploitation in the Middle East: the Wadi Faynan and the Wadi Dana National Reserve in southern Jordan

Investigations of geomorphology, geoarchaeology, pollen, palynofacies, and charcoal indicate the comparative scales and significance of palaeoenvironmental changes throughout the Holocene at the junction between the hyper-arid hot Wadi 'Arabah desert and the front of the Mediterranean-belt Mountains of Edom in southern Jordan through a series of climatic changes and episodes of intense mining and smelting of copper ores. Early Holocene alluviation followed the impact of Neolithic grazers but climate drove fluvial geomorphic change in the Late Holocene, with a major arid episode corresponding chronologically with the ‘Little Ice Age’ causing widespread alluviation. The harvesting of wood for charcoal may have been sufficiently intense and widespread to affect the capacity of intensively harvested tree species to respond to a period of greater precipitation deduced for the Roman–Byzantine period – a property that affects both taphonomic and biogeographical bases for the interpretation of palynological evidence from arid-lands with substantial industrial histories. Studies of palynofacies have provided a record of human and climatic causes of soil erosion, and the changing intensity of the use of fire over time. The patterns of vegetational, climatic change and geomorphic changes are set out for this area for the last 8000 years.     

Resistances in the “Resilient City”: Rise and fall of a disputed concept in New Orleans and Medellin

Medellin and New Orleans were regularly presented as resilience flagships of the Rockefeller's 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) program. In this article, I will demonstrate how 100RC was embedded or abandoned in both cities' policies. The two case studies provide an opportunity to understand how the 100RC approach to resilience offered – or failed to offer – an appropriate space for the multiple deployments of resilience. 100RC initially promoted an integrative definition of resilience, aiming to address natural as well as social stresses and shocks. I argue that this holistic approach paradoxically contributed to limiting the multiplicity of resilience in both cities. In Medellin, the project came to a halt after political changes. New Orleans eventually developed a more reductionist and technical approach than that initially formulated, focusing on the effectiveness of infrastructures rather than social changes. Considering the importance of contextualizing resilience to local concerns, this analysis will thus demonstrate some of the challenges implied in the institutionalization of a global model of resilience. Moreover, it will also highlight the importance of contextualizing neoliberalism and question the widespread vision of resilient cities as being merely neoliberal.     

Earthquake-Induced Damage Detection in a Monumental Masonry Bell-Tower Using Long-Term Dynamic Monitoring Data

ABSTRACT

This work investigates the use of an advanced long-term vibration-based structural health monitoring tool to automatically detect earthquake-induced damages in heritage structures. Damage produced in a monumental bell-tower at increasing values of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of the seismic input is predicted by incremental nonlinear dynamic analysis, using a Finite Element model calibrated on the basis of experimentally identified natural modes. Then, predicted damage effects are artificially introduced in the monitoring data to check for their detectability. The results demonstrate that a very small damage, associated to a low intensity and low return period earthquake, is clearly detected by the monitoring system.     

Resilience and values: Global perspectives on the values and worldviews underpinning the resilience concept

Instrumentalist and critical narratives of resilience have seldom engaged discussing the ‘values’ underpinning it. We propose that mapping resilience values against worldviews can help translate the articulation of theoretical narratives as public policy. This can help establish an evidence-base to assess if resilience thinking is - in practice - the inclusive and participatory agenda that policy claims it to be; or – on the other hand – to understand the ways in which resilience is a new market for exploitation, as its critics have claimed. The inclusion of a worldviews perspective in conjunction with the contextual aspect of place approach associated with geographers will help actors design better resilience-led interventions, by targeting such interventions more appropriately to the values of the target audience. The paper summarizes two dominant narratives and suggests pathways for the inclusion of a third pathway that derives empirical approaches from values-oriented research at multiple scales.     

The birth of cyberwar

Within western security discourse, the threat posed by cyberwar has risen from a barely acknowledged concern to one of the greatest challenges confronting the West and the world in only a few short years. How did this happen so quickly, and what are the consequences for how security is performatively enacted? We argue that an event that occurred in 2007 catalyzed cyberwar's actualization as a new policy object, and has continued to affect the discursive practices materializing cyberwar since 2007. After a brief genealogy of cyberwar imaginings prior to 2007, the article interrogates how the 2007 events catalyzed cyberwar's materialization, and the discursive practices that have worked performatively to stabilize and institutionalize a knowledge-power assemblage named cyberwar as a new policy object. In particular, it traces the ways in which the site and situation of cyberwar's birth have affected the emerging apparatuses of cybersecurity, how the event enabled Estonian cybersecurity specialists and political and military elites as “catalyzing agents and shimmering points” in the emerging cyberwar resonance machine, while Tallinn became elevated as a cybersecurity center of calculation, and finally how the events of 2007 have served as a precautionary baseline for the anticipatory actions through which future cyberwars are made present.     

Collaboration or obstruction? Rebel group behavior during natural disaster relief in the Philippines

Under what conditions do rebel groups collaborate with the government in disaster relief operations? Despite the fact that many natural disasters occur in armed conflict contexts, little is known about the impact of conflict actors on natural disaster relief efforts. Affected by the same typhoon, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the New People's Army (NPA) behaved differently in the aftermath of the natural disaster. While the MILF collaborated with the government in relief efforts, the NPA did not. This article explains this variation by arguing that the level of hostility between the rebel group and the state in the pre-disaster period as well as the type of social contract that exists between the rebels and the local population shape collaboration during natural disaster relief efforts. The theoretical argument is explored through a comparative case study between these two rebel groups in the aftermath of a devastating typhoon in the Philippines in 2012.     

Economic resilience of metropolitan,old industrial,and rural regions in two subsequent recessionary shocks

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we focus on the question of how particular types of regions react to economic shocks. Drawing on a case study of Czech microregions, we aim to determine if the old industrial regions differ significantly from other types of regions (metropolitan, urban, rural) in (post)crisis economic development. Two aspects of regional resilience (measured by unemployment growth) were considered: recession and recovery. We focused on the comparison of two subsequent recessionary shocks: the 2008–2010 global recession and the 2012–2013 austerity crisis. Metropolitan regions showed relatively stable economic development. Old industrial regions were more resilient than expected. Rural regions exhibited highly diverse reactions: lower resistance was characteristic for regions specialized (mostly) in automotive and some labour-intensive industries. The first wave of recession increased unemployment mostly in (rural) regions dependent on export-oriented manufacturing, the second wave especially hit larger cities with metropolitan functions. Regions that experienced a sharp unemployment increase in the first recession were generally more resistant in the second wave. All types of regions were internally highly diverse in their reactions to economic crises, which points to the importance of micro-regional variations of economic resilience, the performance of individual local firms and subsidiaries, and extra-regional factors of regional development.