日本对东亚直接投资"雁行模式"再思考

20世纪80年代以来日本在东亚地区进行大规模的直接投资,执意要确立梦寐以求的、以日本为领头雁,带动亚洲NIES,由ASEAN和中国作为后盾的“雁行模式”。这种三位一体的投资地区分布和产生结构的梯度转移,虽然在短期内有利于日本在亚洲乃至世界保持经济、技术上的优势,有助于东亚经济的高速增长,但从长期效应来看,由于“雁行模式”所具有的致命缺陷,对东亚等发展中东道国乃至日本本国经济发展以及产业结构的高度化将带来深刻的负面效应。     

Model tuning and its impact on modelled climate change response: Hudson Bay sea ice, a case study

The impact of climate model parameterization is examined using Hudson Bay sea ice as a case study. The implicit diffusion of an upstream scheme used in a three dimensional ocean general circulation model is locally determined by using a one dimension proxy model of Hudson Bay with atmospheric, cryospheric and oceanic components. Using this proxy model, distinct pairs of values for the thermal conductivity of sea ice and thermal diffusivity of sea water are found that reproduce the current climatology of sea ice thickness in Hudson Bay. These pairs of values are subsequently used in a 3°C warming scenario. The resulting ice thicknesses are shown to be highly dependent on the choice of these pairs of values as well as the seasonal distribution of the warming.     

Communicating Climate Change: Are Stories Better than “Just the Facts”?

Postpositive policy scholarship has long asserted the importance of narratives—or stories—in shaping public policy through public opinion. In part, the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) was developed to empirically test this assertion. To assess the relationship between policy narratives and public opinion, NPF posits several causal mechanisms including narrative transportation. Narrative transportation is a measure used to assess the extent to which individuals exposed to a story are “transported” into that story. NPF hypothesizes that as narrative transportation increases the reader of the story will (i) have more positive affect for characters within the story; and (ii) will find the story more persuasive. Using an online experiment involving a nationally representative sample of over 1,700 respondents, this research tests narrative transportation hypotheses by exposing subjects to one of three Cultural Theory narratives about climate change, as well as a control list of scientifically agreed upon facts. While findings do not support that narratives are any more transportive than fact lists in terms of directly persuading respondents to accept specific climate change policies, the data do show that narrative transportation positively influences affect for hero characters, which extant research demonstrates indirectly influences the persuasiveness of a story.     

Hurricane impacts on southeastern United States coastal national park visitation

As a major contributor to local economies, the tourism industry has been greatly impacted by natural disasters. This study demonstrates the association between tourism economies and impacts of hurricanes in the southeastern United States containing coastal national parks, known for attracting a large number of tourists and having experienced hurricanes. In keeping with two longitudinal data methods (i.e. panel logit model and autoregressive integrated moving average), this study focused on the relationship between the (1) duration, intensity, and damage of hurricanes; (2) existing climate conditions; and (3) tourism demand on park visitation during hurricane and tourism seasons. As a whole, the impacts of hurricanes and climate conditions (precipitation, temperature) were found to have a negative effect on tourism demands (park visitation). With regard to the response of tourism economies to natural disaster damage, parks that experienced stronger natural disasters may be closed for a longer period in order to reconstruct facilities or natural/cultural resources damaged by storms. In an attempt to improve tourism-based regional economies, overcome the challenge of natural disasters on tourism economies, and increase opportunities for establishing disaster management, it is necessary to make an effort to allay unexpected damage to tourism-based areas through proactive plans for disaster mitigation activities.     

战国秦汉时期长江中游地区气候状况研究

本文根据历史文献、考古材料和钻孔孢粉资料等,对战国秦汉时期长江中游地区的气候状况进行了初步的探讨。结果表明:战国初期,该地气候温暖湿润;战国中后期至西汉武帝后期,气温下降,气候温凉,极端寒冷事件不断出现;约从公元前100年始,气温明显回升,至公元初年前后,长江中游地区复为温暖湿润的气候环境;公元之初的新莽政权时期,气候经历了由暖而寒的历史转变,降温过程大致持续到东汉明帝时期;之后至东汉中后期,气候暖湿,尤其是冬季气温相对较高;东汉后期,气候再度出现了幅度不大的波动,标志着魏晋南北朝时期大降温的开始。此间气候虽屡有起伏,但总体而言,战国秦汉时期长江中游地区的气候仍以暖湿为主,气温略高于今,或与现今差别不大。在干湿状况方面,具有干湿相间的特点。     

海外华人网络与FDI流入中国大陆的实证分析

用统计分析的方法,以13个国家在2002-2006年的数据为样本,建立了以经济规模、人均GDP、地理距离和海外华人网络为主要变量的分析模型,对海外华人网络与FDI流入中国大陆之间的相关系数进行定量分析。结果表明:海外华人网络与国际对华直接投资流量之间成正相关关系,其在中国大陆吸引、利用FDI的过程当中发挥了积极的作用。但随着中国正式制度的不断健全和完善,海外华人网络对FDI流入中国大陆的作用强度将有所弱化。     

A Constructivist Approach to Climate Change Teaching and Learning

It is now broadly acknowledged that climate change due to an enhanced Greenhouse Effect is underway and such change will have major implications for our societies and environments. This paper outlines a pedagogical approach devised to encourage learning and critical thinking about climate change. A constructivist approach to teaching and learning is applied to stimulate analysis of potential impacts of climate change on systems familiar to secondary school students in South Australia. The problem‐based method guides students through a conceptualisation of the implications of environmental change. Students at Woodcroft College, when given the opportunity to examine the potential climate change impacts on a local coastal ecosystem, found the method to be both challenging and engaging. The exercise concluded with students discussing possible personal behavioural and broader societal responses to reduce the impacts of future climate change. The paper contends that such teaching to support students to become resilient young adults will be vital in a future world of environmental risk.     

A Review of the Environmental Policy Literature from 2014 to 2017 with a Closer Look at the Energy Justice Field

This review article documents and analyzes trends within the environmental policy literature published between 2014 and 2017. We find that environmental policy scholarship has recently shifted its focus from more traditional topics, such as watershed and ecosystem management, to other modern issues, such as climate change and energy. The environmental policy literature has increased in complexity and become more interdisciplinary in nature, which we illustrate with a discussion of the energy justice literature. The methodological approaches used by environmental policy scholars have also become increasingly diverse, with a notable uptick in statistical and modeling approaches. We find that some topics, such as policy failure, gender issues, and energy welfare policies are under‐explored, and certain regions within the world, such as developing countries, are less frequently studied. We encourage scholars to consider these gaps in the literature when developing future research.     

Partisans and the Use of Knowledge versus Science

This paper explores the kind of knowledge that partisans profess in order to contribute to our studies of what has usually been thought of as the “denial of science.” Building on the research of Robert Proctor, Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway, I show that the tobacco interests and climate science skeptics usually described as “doubt mongers” also purveyed forms of certainty and rested their arguments on three different registers of truth: that of narrowly defined “facts” that could sustain a controversy, ideological commitments to free enterprise, and the truths of self‐conscious partisans engaged in battle. Thus, in many respects they have used elements of general knowledge, as well as social, economic and political commitments, to argue against specific scientific findings. Further, at least in the case of climate skeptics, this denial has been in the service of an image of the nature of science and its proper relation to politics. Analyzing significant dichotomies in debates that cross the terrains of science and politics, and knowledge and science, I will argue that a clear articulation of the relations amongst them will be critical to our work to understand the character of climate science denial, but also of the climate sciences themselves.     

Are smart cities global cities? A European perspective

Typical of the 1990s, the global cities phenomenon preceded the past decade’s massive spread of smart cities. Yet the question of how the two phenomena currently coincide remains to be considered, as well as an analysis based on viewing smart cities as global cities. An analysis related to the European scenario is developed in this article, aimed at giving a response to the previous considerations. An index is also proposed; concerning the global character of the cities, it considers the ability of the cities to attract Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). Results of the proposed analysis show that in Europe four main scenarios exist. Two regarding positive and negative correlations between the diffusion of global and smart cities, and another two scenarios demonstrate cases in which the two features are not correlated. The first two cases are respectively related to smart cities that are also global cities. The last two cases deal with the presence of different drivers that are not related to smart urban plans, which could, however, drive the attraction of FDI or which could also promote smart actions without the thrust of FDI. Correlation and regression analyses complement the work.