五帝时代(距今6-4千年)中国的气候

历史学研究表明,古代文献如《史记》记载的五帝:黄帝、颛顼、帝喾、唐尧、虞舜,可能应该视为一个时代,而不局限于五个人。获得较多支持的观点是:这个时代约在6-4kaBP,而且也不限于华夏集团,至少还包括东夷集团、苗蛮集团等。因此,从地望上讲,也不限于中原地区,还包括东部沿海及长江中游。考古学研究表明,6-4kaBP正是新石器时代晚期,后期可称为铜石并用时代。从考古文化来看,中原地区为仰韶文化中、晚期到龙山文化。东部地区为大汶口文化及(山东)龙山文化。其中在3500BC是仰韶文化中、晚期的交界,以及大汶口文化早、中期的交界。环境考古研究表明,6-4kaBP是一个由湿润气候向干旱气候转变的过渡时期。特别6.0-5.6kaBP有湿润气候的证据。4kaBP前后则明显进入晚全新世的干旱期,在此期间还包括5.5kaBP和4.2-4.0kaBP两次气候突变。现代气候资料及模拟研究表明,由早、中全新世的湿润气候向晚全新世的干旱气候转变的主要原因为岁差变化。但是,5.5kaBP及4.2-4.0kaBP的两次冷干气候突变,则可能与热盐环流的突然减弱有关,而热盐环流减弱可能是太阳活动减弱的结果。     

Resource nationalism or resource liberalism? Explaining Australia's approach to Chinese investment in its minerals sector

Since 2005, a burgeoning wave of Chinese investments has set off a new ‘minerals boom’ in the Australian iron ore and coal mining sectors. While normally a welcome development, the state-owned and strategic nature of the investors has raised concerns in Australia about how these should be regulated. As a result, in February 2008 the Australian government declared an intention to more closely screen foreign direct investment (FDI) from state-owned sources, which both supporters and detractors alike have claimed is evidence of ‘resource nationalism’ in Australia's approach towards its trade and investment relationships with China. This article challenges this understanding through an examination of the characteristics of Chinese mining FDI, the dilemmas these present to the Australian government, and the relatively restrained nature of its response. Through this, Australia's FDI policy is explained as a defensive move against the potential for strategic behaviour by Chinese investors resulting from their state ownership, rather than any national program to subject minerals trade and investment to political control. On this basis, the article argues that Australian government policy instead evidences a ‘resource liberalism’ approach, which intends to ensure that the governance of Australia's minerals trade and investment with China remain market-based processes.     

The state of climate change adaptation in Canada's protected areas sector

L’adaptation aux changements climatiques dans les réseaux d’aires protégées du Canada : état des lieux La Commission mondiale des aires protégées a récemment laissé entendre que les actions en faveur de la conservation sont vouées à l’échec, à moins que ces dernières tiennent compte des changements climatiques. Pour ce faire, les organismes chargés des aires protégées doivent dès maintenant s’assurer de l’intégration des changements climatiques dans les politiques, les cadres de planification et les modes de gestion. Le présent article rend compte des résultats d’une enquête réalisée conjointement par l’Université de Waterloo et le Conseil canadien des aires écologiques. Celle‐ci vise à dresser un état des lieux sur l’adaptation aux changements climatiques dans tout le réseau d’aires protégées du Canada qui relève du palier fédéral, provincial ou territorial. Il se dégage de l’analyse plusieurs constats importants. Tout d’abord, sur l’ensemble des organismes chargés des aires protégées que nous avons interrogés, les trois quarts ont déclaré que les changements climatiques ont déjà des effets visibles sur leur réseau d’aires protégées. Ensuite, 94 pour cent des participants à l’enquête estiment qu’au cours des vingt‐cinq prochaines années, l’enjeu des changements climatiques sera au c?ur de la politique et de la planification des aires protégées. Finalement, malgré la perception voulant que les changements climatiques exercent une pression croissante, la portée des mesures politiques, de planification, de gestion ou de recherche mises de l’avant par la plupart des organismes jusqu’à maintenant demeure limitée. Si 91 pour cent des organismes indiquent ne pas disposer des capacités nécessaires en ce moment pour réagir de façon optimale aux changements climatiques, l’enquête a permis de mettre en évidence un écart significatif entre la perception de la gravité des changements climatiques et la capacité des organismes chargés des aires protégées de s’adapter. La faiblesse du financement, une capacité d’action limitée, et un manque de compréhension des changements climatiques et de leurs répercussions réelles ou potentielles comptent parmi les difficultés auxquelles sont confrontés les organismes canadiens chargés des aires protégées. Il est impératif de les surmonter afin que ces organismes puissent exercer leurs mandats et être en mesure d’assumer leurs responsabilités concernant la protection et la biodiversité des aires, par exemple, la protection de l’intégrité du patrimoine naturel au Canada dans un contexte de changements climatiques accélérés.     

Vulnerability to Bushfire Risk at Melbourne's Urban Fringe: The Failure of Regulatory Land Use Planning

The 7 February 2009 bushfires in the peri‐urban region to the north of metropolitan Melbourne heralded what many have called an entirely new epoch in terms of weather‐related disasters in Australia. A total of 173 people and 2000 properties were destroyed and, as with the 1939 fires in Victoria, a Royal Commission was subsequently instituted to inquire into the causes and responses to the fire. The Royal Commission has heard much evidence about alleged failings of fire response, communication and administration. It also considered land use planning issues and the associated regulatory framework. Using the Shire of Murrindindi as a case study, this paper argues that the location of population growth, and associated regulatory failure, are contributory, yet under‐researched, factors associated with life and property losses. The adoption of more robust planning tools which incorporate climate change considerations, we argue, is essential to anticipate and minimise the impacts of disastrous natural events such as bushfires. In the latter part of the paper, attention is drawn to a recent Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal decision which is groundbreaking in its use of the precautionary principle to prevent dwelling construction in an ‘inappropriate’ location as well as to some major inconsistencies between planning for flood and bushfire threats.     

Numerical Evaluation of Topographic Effects at the Nicastro Ridge in Southern Italy

Numerical site response analyses were carried out on the Nicastro ridge in Southern Italy in order to investigate topographic effects. First, the analyses were carried out on a simplified model by employing simple artificial signals, in order to get preliminary physical insights into the two-dimensional phenomena involved. Then, numerical analyses were carried out on a more realistic heterogeneous subsoil model developed on the basis of geotechnical and geophysical investigations. Real accelerograms were selected for these analyses. Particular attention was devoted to separating topographic from stratigraphic amplification. Finally, the topographic amplification factors were compared with literature data and Eurocode 8 recommendations.     

Green Allies: Speculative Realism,Evangelical Christianity,and Political Pluralism

This essay addresses the question of how to build political coalitions to address global warming. For speculative realists such as Levi Bryant, responding to climate change demands materialist ontologies that recognize the efficacy of things themselves, e.g. fossil fuels. And yet, I argue, Bryant does not sufficiently address the political assignment of building political coalitions with people who endorse different ontologies. To illuminate this possibility, I show how the American evangelical David Gushee arrives at similar conclusions by a different route. The essay encourages speculative realists to fold modesty into their political thinking for the sake of building coalitions with theists about matters of common concern.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Foreign Investment in Russia from the EU: Empirical Evidence from Firm-Level Data

This paper empirically examines the impact of the recent global economic crisis on foreign investment from EU countries in Russia by estimating a location choice model for foreign firms' entry in Russian regions for the period 1997-2011. It also examines the relative importance of various determinants of location choice on the redistribution of foreign-owned firms among Russian regions before and after the crisis. Strong evidence during the post-crisis period (2008-2011) of a decrease in market-seeking foreign investment in manufacturing and resource-seeking foreign investment in trade is examined not only in light of the crisis but also (in the latter case) within the context of the new Russian law for foreign investment in strategic industries, which went into effect in 2008.     

基于关系视角的企业直接投资区位选择——过程与机理

企业直接投资区位选择是经济地理学的经典议题。目前直接将区位条件与关系网络衔接起来分析企业直接投资区位选择过程的研究较为少见。本文基于关系视角和中国情境,构建了关系连通、区位耦合、博弈谈判三位一体的模型,提出了一种对企业直接投资区位选择过程化的理解方法。文章以案例研究方法,对企业家赴甘肃省和浙江省开发区投资考察过程进行了参与式观察与访谈。研究发现,企业直接投资区位选择遵循关系连通—区位耦合—博弈谈判的过程。第一,企业与投资地关系连通是企业到当地投资的前提,而结构洞有利于企业与投资地关系形成。第二,企业与投资地区位耦合是企业投资区位选择的必经过程。第三,企业与投资地政府博弈谈判是企业投资的重要过程,且必须达成两厢情愿企业才可能在当地投资。在中国情境中,本文的理论模型具有现实代表性。本文的创新之处是结合中国情境,运用关系视角,对企业投资区位选择过程进行了理论重构。     

Ways In and Out of Vulnerability to Climate Change: Abandoning the Mubarak Project in the Northern Nile Delta,Egypt

Abstract: Climate change is already exerting significant pressure on humanity, but some people have the resources to cope, while others do not. What, then, determines vulnerability to climate change? This article presents a case study of one site of vulnerability in Egypt, known as the Mubarak Project villages on the shores of the Mediterranean. The soil of these villages is now undergoing rapid salinization, forcing farmers to apply sand to “elevate” their fields above the rising salty water table—but not all farmers can afford to buy the requisite sand. Accumulation by dispossession under the Mubarak regime has pushed some people towards the frontline of climate change, while at the same time denying them the resources to stay there. Using our case, we explore the connection between accumulation by dispossession and vulnerability to climate change and ask if an end to the former could reduce the latter in Egypt.     

Environmental Regulations and Multinational Corporations' Foreign Market Entry Investments

In this study, we examine how differences in environmental regulation characteristics are linked to multinational corporations' (MNCs) foreign market entry (FME) investments decisions around the world. We rely on a data set with 29,303 observations from 94 European Fortune Global 500 companies operating across 77 countries during the period 2001–2007. We found that MNCs are more likely to enter countries with more certain—i.e., clearer and more stable—environmental regulations than those of their home countries. Results also suggest that there is a higher level of MNC entry into foreign countries with environmental regulations that are more stringent than those of their home countries. This finding challenges the controversial but commonly held view that more stringent environmental regulations deter MNCs' FME investments. Notably, the magnitude of the regulatory certainty relationship with MNCs' FME investments is larger than that of regulatory stringency. Findings also indicate that the increased tendency of MNCs to enter countries with more stringent environmental regulations is higher in more democratic countries and for cleaner industry firms.