THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW AND ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO IN THE HONG KONG SAR

Hong Kong, like other countries with developed economies, is experiencing significant population ageing. The shift in the population age structure results from a combination of decreasing mortality rates and prolonged low fertility rates. This paper investigates the economic impact of changes in a population's age structure. We forecast on sex-specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) and the economic dependency ratio (EDR) using different scenarios. Our results show that the below-unity level for the EDR—prevalent since 1996—will exceed unity in 2015 and rise steeply thereafter. By 2036, the projected EDR will reach an unprecedented high of 1.4, where every three economically-inactive persons will be supported by two economically-active persons in Hong Kong. This projection not only reflects a significant age shift towards the older end of the age spectrum, but is also driven by declining LFPRs among men.     

REMEASURING AGEING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

It is a commonly held view that Southeast Asian societies are ageing rapidly. This has led to a high level of policy concern about the future capacity of states to cope with increased levels of ‘old-age dependency’ which, at first glance, often appear almost unmanageable. We suggest that the rates employed to demonstrate the present/future scale of ‘old-age dependency’ are misleading and based upon a Eurocentric notion from a bygone era. Arguing that these measurements both omit changes in life expectancy and fundamentally misconceptualise ‘old’ and ‘dependent’, we present a new series of comparative measurements based upon a dynamic view of remaining life expectancy and a more accurate concept of what it means to be ‘dependent’. These measurements simultaneously provide a more realistic and optimistic view of the future challenges of ageing in Southeast Asia.     

Sex ratios and life tables: Historical demography of the age at which women outnumber men in seven countries, 1850–2016

Abstract

The male/female sex ratio (SR) and its age-specific patterns vary considerably across time and place. The SR generally begins male-biased at birth and becomes female-biased later in life, but this relationship should respond to historical trends and events. Temporal trends in SRs remain largely unstudied and formal demographic relationships are not well defined. We (1) define SRs in a life table framework, (2) estimate the age at which the number of males and females achieves parity—the sex ratio crossover (SRX)—using basic life table methods, and (3) explore historical and international patterns in these trends. Using publicly-available data from the Human Mortality Database, we construct SR and SRX measures from period and cohort life tables. Analyses explore temporal patterns for seven countries in different global regions since 1850. Overall temporal trends show the SRX advancing to older ages. The SRX also appears to respond to historical events such as wars and epidemics. The measure is simple to construct from life table data, and provides additional insight into the historical context of gender dynamics.     

Moving metals or indigenous mining? Provenancing Scandinavian Bronze Age artefacts by lead isotopes and trace elements

The aim of this study is to further the discussion as to whether copper was extracted locally or imported to Sweden during the Bronze Age or if both of these practices could have coexisted. For this purpose, we have carried out lead isotope and chemical analyses of 33 bronze items, dated between 1600BC and 700BC. Among these are the famous Fröslunda shields and the large scrap hoard from Bräckan and other items from three regions in southern Sweden which are also renowned for their richness in copper ores. It is obvious from a comparison that the element and lead isotope compositions of the studied bronze items diverge greatly from those of spatially associated copper ores. Nor is there any good resemblance with other ores from Scandinavia, and it is concluded that the copper in these items must have been imported from elsewhere. The results furthermore indicate that there are variations in metal supply that are related to chronology, in agreement with other artefacts from Scandinavia as well as from other parts of Europe. Altogether these circumstances open up for a discussion regarding Scandinavia’s role in the maritime networks during the Bronze Age.     

Subsistence economics,family size,and the emergence of social complexity in hunter–gatherer systems in eastern North America

A consideration of ethnographic data, computational model results, and archaeological data suggest that changes in family-level economics coincident with subsistence intensification contributed to the emergence of social complexity among prehistoric hunter–gatherers in eastern North America by creating the conditions for a “rich get richer” scenario. Ethnographic data are used to construct a general computational model representing key person- and family-level behaviors, constraints, and decisions affecting the size and composition of hunter–gatherer families. Results from model experiments suggest that lowering the age at which children make a significant contribution to subsistence (e.g., through the broadening of the diet to include the kinds of mass-harvested, “low quality” foods that were increasingly exploited during the Archaic and Woodland periods) relaxes constraints on family size and makes large, polygynous families economically viable. Positive feedbacks between the productive and reproductive potentials of larger families produce right-tailed distributions of family size and “wealth” when the productive age of children is low and polygyny is incentivized. Size data from over 800 prehistoric residential structures suggest right-tailed distributions of family size were present during the Late Archaic through Middle Woodland periods. These distributions would have provided variability in family-based status that permitted the emergence of hereditary social distinctions.     

The ivory workshop of Valencina de la Concepción (Seville,Spain) and the identification of ivory from Asian elephant on the Iberian Peninsula in the first half of the 3rd millennium BC

During excavations in the huge ditched enclosure of Valencina de la Concepción (Seville, Spain), the main centre from the first hierarchical framework-settlement in the Guadalquivir Valley, a pit with remains of a context for producing ivory artefacts, dating from the first half of the 3rd millennium BC, was discovered in the large metallurgical nucleate workshops. Scientific (Optical Microscopy, FIRT and Raman Spectroscopy, C/N Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry) analyses revealed that the ivory belonged to Asian elephants and the archaeological study, which was made in a specialized workshop context. In this paper we present the archaeological context, the study of the ivory artefacts and the state of research on ivory in the Lower Guadalquivir Basin during the 3rd millennium BC. In a parallel way, this paper discusses the significance of this workshop context in the configuration and function of the long distance circulation of raw material and the specialized craft areas in the first political centres.     

MEDIEVAL SILVER PRODUCTION AROUND SIJILMÂSA,MOROCCO

Sijilmâsa (south-east Morocco) was one of the most strategic cities in a far-reaching exchange network, that is, the Trans-Saharan trade, linking the Maghreb with West Africa during the medieval period (from the 8^th to the 15^th century CE). It was also one of the most important gold and silver monetary workshops at the time. If gold came from West Africa, we know from written sources that silver was produced in Morocco, although archaeological evidence of silver mining and smelting has remained elusive. Thanks to a thorough analysis of the lead isotopic data from silver mining districts in Morocco and from ores and slags of our study, we were able to refine the tracing of our materials and provide tangible evidence of medieval mining in the close hinterland of Sijilmâsa city.     

中国10个五年计划完成情况的定量评估

对新中国成立以来10个五年计划及其320个计划指标完成程度的定量计算结果显示,转轨和市场经济时期的五年计划,目标完成情况显著好于计划时期,其计划制定也普遍比计划经济时期保守,但是计划目标的预期准确性和完成的同步性下降。在市场经济条件下,五年计划无论是制定还是实施,均面临更大的挑战。同时,五年计划目标构成的嬗变,也反映出政府职能从经济建设型向公共服务型转变的过程。     

南京政府初期文科与实科比例失衡的社会政治效应

南京政府所谓的“青年问题”实质上反映了它们对1920年代和1930年代中国政治继续动荡的恐惧与抵制。民初以来的高等教育,其文科与实科的比例结构与社会需求之间严重失衡倾向的日益积累,导致了越来越多游离于社会生产结构之外的文科学生成为批判现实的社会科学最为热情的接受群体。当他们的切身遭遇在学理上被引向对社会制度的道德质问时,社会科学表现为20世纪30年代具有颠覆性的一种时尚。这些学生也由此为抗议南京政府的政治组织所吸纳,从而掀起了此起彼伏的让南京当局头痛的政治风浪。