Reaching across: institutional barriers to cross‐ethnic parties in post‐conflict societies and the case of Northern Ireland

This paper investigates the paradox in post‐conflict societies of continued marginality of cross‐ethnic parties despite significant convergence in public attitudes and identities. In so doing, it examines the argument that parties that attempt to reach across the divide are constrained by consocational institutions designed to accommodate rival identities in such environments. The paper explores this puzzle in the context of Northern Ireland, drawing upon qualitative evidence from elite interviews and focus groups collected in 2012 and 2013. It concludes that cross‐community parties operating in the region do encounter formal institutional barriers, but that such barriers only partially explain the phenomenon and an interplay between formal and informal constraints underlies their position of relatively limited electoral success.     

Surface controls on the characteristics of natural CO2 seeps: implications for engineered CO2 stores

CO₂ injected into rock formations for deep geological storage must not leak to surface, since this would be economically and environmentally unfavourable, and could present a human health hazard. In Italy natural CO₂ degassing to the surface via seeps is widespread, providing an insight into the various styles of subsurface ‘plumbing’ as well as surface expression of CO₂ fluids. Here we investigate surface controls on the distribution of CO₂ seep characteristics (type, flux and temperature) using a large geographical and historical data set. When the locations of documented seeps are compared to a synthetic statistically random data set, we find that the nature of the CO₂ seeps is most strongly governed by the flow properties of the outcropping rocks, and local topography. Where low‐permeability rocks outcrop, numerous dry seeps occur and have a range of fluxes. Aqueous fluid flow will be limited in these low‐permeability rocks, and so relative permeability effects may enable preferential CO₂ flow. CO₂ vents typically occur along faults in rocks that are located above the water table or are low permeability. Diffuse seeps develop where CO₂ (laterally supplied by these faults) emerges from the vadose zone and where CO₂ degassing from groundwater follows a different flow path due to flow differences for water and CO₂ gas. Bubbling water seeps (characterized by water bubbling with CO₂) arise where CO₂ supply enters the phreatic zone or an aquifer. CO₂‐rich springs often emerge where valleys erode into CO₂ aquifers, and these are typically high flux seeps. Seep type is known to influence human health risk at CO₂ seeps in Italy, as well as the topography surrounding the seep which affects the rate of gas dispersion by wind. Identifying the physical controls on potential seep locations and seep type above engineered CO₂ storage operations is therefore crucial to targeted site monitoring strategy and risk assessment. The surface geology and topography above a CO₂ store must therefore be characterized in order to design the most effective monitoring strategy.     

The emergence of agropastoralism: Accelerated ecocultural change on the Andean altiplano, ∼3540–3120 cal BP

In the fourth millennium BP, there were major environmental and cultural changes on the Andean altiplano of South America, but the chronology remains vague. A recent synthesis describes a slow, gradual transition from hunting and gathering to agropastoralism. This proposal is tested by refining the date of the onset of more humid and stable conditions, around 3550 cal BP, based on a Bayesian model of 26 dates from Lake Wiñaymarka and an updated calculation of the lacustrine offset. This is compared to Bayesian models of 191 dates from 20 archaeological sites, which incorporate a number of recently processed radiocarbon dates. A synthesis is presented of 15 full coverage surveys, a summed probability distribution, and a Bayesian model of the transition to ceramics, which together support a scenario of a very rapid demographic increase. Fourteen models from archaeological sites are cross-referenced in a composite model, which identifies a brief, altiplano-wide emergence of agropastoralism with starting and ending boundaries of 3540 and 3120 cal BP, respectively. This starting boundary correlates strongly with the onset of improving environmental conditions, indicating synchronous cultural and environmental change. The suite of accelerating cultural changes included a marked reduction in mobility, a demographic surge, increased subsistence diversity, the adoption of ceramics, farming and the integration of camelid herding into a remarkably resilient economic strategy still in use today. This is a highly relevant but yet to be used comparative case study for the variable tempos of ‘big histories’, and ecocultural interactions that generate rapid, emergent episodes of wide-spread and enduring cultural change.     

1971年印巴危机期间美国的难民政策与美印在难民问题上的角力

1971年印巴危机是冷战时代一次具有重大国际影响的地区危机。危机期间,因受东巴内战与印巴冲突的双重影响,大量东巴居民逃往印度,沦为难民。东巴难民持续涌入印度不仅是东巴危机转变为印巴危机的主要诱因,同时也是导致南亚持续紧张、敌对氛围难以消解的重要根源。为妥善解决难民问题,美国积极谋划,投入大量人力、物力、财力,意图妥善解决难民问题,化解危机。但是美国采取的积极措施并未减缓危机冲突的不断升级。在处理难民问题的过程中,美巴政策协调趋于一致,而印度与美巴在难民问题上的政策倾向却渐行渐远。归根究底,是否应该在难民问题上附加最终促成东巴独立的政治条件是美巴与印度的根本分歧所在。而这一根本分歧的悬而未决最终成为引爆第三次印巴战争的导火索。     

建国前夕英美对华政策的分歧及其原因

新中国建立前夕,鉴于英美在华的利益侧重点、外交传统以及与国民党及其政府的历史关系存在不同,两国在对华政策上出现分歧,最终在诸如是否撤出中国、是否对新中国实施贸易管制以及是否打破国民党对上海的封锁等系列问题上立场迥异,争执激烈,并最终各行其是。根本而言,这是英美经通盘考虑后从自身利益出发所做出的政策抉择,同时也是两国不同的外交传统在对华政策层面上的集中体现。     

抗战时期的国统区农村金融--以农村合作金融事业为中心

抗日战争爆发后,南京政府认识到抗战将是持久战,持久抗战的关键之一在于农村能否持久地提供支持。因而,维持和发展农村经济就成为坚持抗战的重要一环。而维持和发展农村经济的关键又在于是否能够为农村提供金融支持。本文以台湾"中研院"近代史研究所档案馆藏有关资料为中心,特别是农林部中央农业实验所农业经济系所作的农村金融调查资料,辅以其他史料,对1939年至1944年间国统区15个省的农村金融借贷、放款利率、放款期限、借贷办法、放款机关等情况进行具体考察,分析和观察其成效与特点,并与抗战前后的情况进行比较,以期对抗战时期国统区的农村金融发展和演变情况,有一个较为清晰的认识。     

考释胡适的两封书信

本文考证了胡适致任鸿隽、胡近仁两封信的写作时间,纠正了以往的误判。将信件的内容置于广阔的历史背景下加以考察,并与相关史料参考互证,不仅有助于考察信件的写作时间,且有助于理解信函的真实含义。     

明代年例银制度形成探论

明代年例银制度是经过长期演变逐渐形成的一项军事供给制度。宣德十年(1435)首先出现京运银,历经景泰、天顺时期,京运银两中有一笔银两开始向"岁例"发生制度性转变的趋势;成化、弘治之际,"常数"、"岁运"、"岁例"、"年例"、"年例银"等名称的出现是这笔京运银两制度化发展的结果,标志着明代年例银制度的初步形成;嘉靖十六年(1537)年例银一年一发的规定以及年例银会计预算制的出现,意味着明代年例银制度的完全确立。年例银制度的形成和确立,改变了明代国家的军事供给体制,是明代军事财政史上的一个重大变革。     

高句丽与汉魏晋及北族政权的朝贡关系

1—5世纪初,无论是统一王朝时期,还是王朝分裂、政权频繁更替时期,高句丽对中原王朝和北族政权都采取积极朝贡的姿态,朝贡活动呈现出单向、双向、多向的变化,先后向十多个王朝和政权进行朝贡。随着政治形势和朝贡对象的变化,高句丽朝贡活动的目的及其与朝贡对象的关系也有一定的变化。     

甲午战争前后东亚海权与海防的较量及其影响

一场甲午战争,使东亚海权格局剧变,由此构成中日两国命运变化的历史拐点。战前,中日两国面对西方殖民扩张的相同遭遇,展开了近30年的海军现代化建设,并在互为敌手的竞争中日益凸显于以英国为主导的东亚海权格局之中。然而,不同的战略选择决定了不同的命运,甲午战争用血与火诠释了海权与海防的本质区别及其决定性影响。正因为战败后的中国已完全置身于东亚海权格局之外,再次陷入有海无防的境地,导致海权得以坐大的日本推行"大陆政策"更加有恃无恐,在列强瓜分中国的狂潮中走上独霸东亚之路。