The German transfer problem, 1920–33: a sovereign-debt perspective

Weimar Germany's economic plight has oftentimes been blamed on reparations in simplistic fashion. Alternative interpretations ignored reparations entirely, instead emphasizing gold standard constraints or wage increases in excess of productivity growth. This paper argues for a strong but subtle link between Germany's slump and these policies. Based on sovereign debt theory, it provides an incentive-based interpretation of the transfer problem, the compensation of reparations by counteracting capital inflows. I argue that the German transfer problem resulted from transfer protection under the Dawes Plan, which gave commercial credits seniority over reparations. This gave Germany a strategic incentive to drive out reparations through foreign borrowing. The Young Plan of 1929 implied a reversal of this seniority scheme, causing a sudden stop in the balance of payments that lasted to the late 1930s. The Young Plan could only have worked in the absence of an international recession; attempts to salvage it in 1931 were necessarily futile.     

Numerical simulation of mylonitization and structural controls on fluid flow and mineralization of the Hetai gold deposit,west Guangdong,China

The Hetai gold deposit (HGD) is a typical altered mylonite type gold mine in a ductile shear zone in western Guangdong, China. Geomechanical simulations of the HGD were carried out in this paper to examine the importance of the dilation‐driven fluid circulation in gold mineralization. The results show that three evenly‐spaced NNE shear zones of enhanced dilation are produced in the study area. The calculated principal compressive stress in the X direction in these zones ranges between ?420 and ?650 MPa, in line with estimates of ore‐forming pressure (fluid pressure). Ore forming fluid is focused into these features, as observed in the field. The calculated differential stress decreases from 275~350 to 148~225 MPa during the formation of mylonite zones. These, together with geological structural analysis and fluid pressure measurements, indicate that the mylonitization zone can provide a place of fluid focusing and a favorable environment for gold mineralization.     

Diffusion patterns of violence in civil wars

Much of the current conflict literature attempts to explain the occurrence of violence as the result of determinants exogenous to the conflict process. This paper takes a different approach and analyzes how violence in civil wars spreads in space and time, drawing on earlier work on micro-diffusion of violence in criminology as well as high resolution conflict data. Two general scenarios are distinguished in our analysis: the relocation and the escalation of conflict. Relocation diffusion corresponds to a shift in the location of violence, whereas escalation diffusion refers to the spatial expansion of the conflict site. We argue that unconventional warfare in civil wars without demarcated front lines should primarily lead to the second type of pattern. We describe an extension to a joint count statistic to measure both diffusion types in conflict event data. Monte Carlo simulation allows for the establishment of a baseline for the frequency of contiguous conflict events under the assumption of independence, and thus provides a significance test for the observed patterns. Our results suggest that violence in civil wars exhibits patterns of diffusion, and in particular, that these patterns are primarily of the escalation type, driven by the dynamic expansion of the scope of the conflict.     

Having an impact? Academics,the music industries and the problem of knowledge

This article reflects upon recent interest in knowledge transfer from higher education to the creative industries, using the UK music industries as a case study. It suggests that traditional academic values of impartiality and concern with research methodology can come in to conflict with instrumentalist agendas that see research as valuable only insofar as it fits with pre‐existing worldviews and policy ends. In this setting, knowledge resistance is often more significant than knowledge transfer and may be expected to frustrate any attempts to have an ‘impact’.     

景区游客游憩行为计算机仿真模型

本文针对我国重点景区在“十一”黄金周以及“五一”等小长假期间持续出现客流高峰而导致的游客游憩质量下降、游憩安全以及景区环境资源可持续利用等问题,从景区游客游憩行为出发,以基于Agent的RepastSimphony建模框架与地理信息系统ArcGISShape数据模型为元模型,建立了可动态模拟景区游客时空分布的游客行为仿真模型。以颐和园景区长廊游览区为研究对象,基于“五一”小长假现场观测与跟踪数据对模型进行了校核与验证,对实验输出数据所反映的客流时空分布进行了分析,并对其在景区管理的实际应用进行了讨论。     

A Sample of the Mexican-American Population in 1940

Abstract

Researchers use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. They first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge's outcome. They then adjust the model to see how that outcome might have changed if the Heavy Brigade had joined the charge and/or if the charge had targeted the Russian forces on the heights instead of those in the valley. The results suggest that all the counterfactual attacks would have led to heavier British casualties. However, a charge by both brigades along the valley might plausibly have yielded a British victory.     

Using network expectations to identify multiple exchange systems: A case study from Postclassic Sauce and its hinterland in Veracruz,Mexico

Exchanges of material objects often play a pivotal role in the trajectories of political, social, and economic development for ancient societies, but the study can be challenging because of the complexity of exchange. Multiple forms of exchange co-exist in ancient societies including market exchange and social exchange such as gift-giving. A further complicating factor is that different exchange systems such as redistribution and central place market exchange can result in the same regional spatial patterning of artifacts. Recent innovations in identifying exchange systems use network expectations for spatial, contextual, and distributional information to help distinguish between social exchanges such as gift-giving versus market exchange using household inventories. I introduce a Monte Carlo computer simulation to evaluate network expectations for alternative exchange mechanisms, using a case study of decorated ceramics from 65 residential inventories from the center of Sauce and its hinterland during the Middle Postclassic period (1200–1350 A.D.) in southcentral Veracruz, Mexico. Using these new tools, I identify the coexistence of several exchange systems operating simultaneously. The methods developed here demonstrate the potential of using network expectations to refine existing methods to identify different exchange systems that can be applied to other complex ancient economies.     

Agent-based simulation of the spatial evolution of the historical population in China

This paper presents an agent-based simulation (ABS) and cellular automata (CA) coupled model to simulate the spatial evolution of the population of China over the past 2000 years. In the model, agents are used to simulate individuals who live in a geographic environment represented by the CA. The choice to migrate is influenced by climate change, potential agricultural productivity change, and waves of mass migrations. Using the simulation, we can observe the spatial evolution of the population, as well as the shift of the population center of gravity, and we can analyze the driving forces of these changing spatial patterns.     

传统平原农区人口非农化对耕地利用方式的影响

传统平原农区是我国重要的粮食产区和人口集聚区,也将是我国未来人口城镇化的快速发展区。本文基于农村劳动力就业转移与农户家庭总收入之间的数量关系,提出农区发展演化三阶段的理论,并选取不同发展阶段的河南省吴庄村和山东省东店村进行验证。结果表明:微观层面的人口非农化特征与农户家庭总收入存在相关性,宏观层面的县域经济发展能力是农户兼业行为特征的重要外因;兼业农户通过土地流转,种植结构调整改变传统耕作方式,优化了农业与非农业收入结构,并推动农区进一步的发展演变。通过分析传统平原农区人口非农化对耕地利用方式的影响机理,对于保障粮食安全、推进该类型区的社会经济转型具有一定的现实意义。     

日本国立大学法人化研究

本文首先从科技投入产出和科技成果商品化两个角度考察了现阶段日本国家创新体系运行效率低下的问题,进而分析了国立大学独立行政法人化改革对提升国家创新体系效率的优化作用。只有同以产官学联合为特征的日本型周家创新体系联系起来,才能全面、深刻地理解国立大学独立行政法人化改革的背景、目的,与现实经济效用,以及相关各方内在利益冲突可能引发的潜在问题。