Shooting in the Dark: Recovering the Jewish Farmers of an American Zion

Abstract

The authors argue that the publication of any new historical data series requires a formal estimate of its margins of error. We show how overall margins of error may be calculated for the standard forms of historical data series from information on the reliability of its components. The presentation of such margins of error should be transparent, allowing readers both to judge the estimate and to test the implications of applying different standards. An illustration is provided for Hoffmann's industrial output series for Britain, 1780–1831. The calculations emphasize the value of this approach to the recent debate on measuring growth rates during the British Industrial Revolution and suggest its merits more generally.     

Logistic增长模型在游客流量预测中的应用——以贵州省绥阳县为例

旅游开发要以市场为导向,以资源为基础,以产品为核心,以效益为目标。游客流量的准确预测对旅游资源的开发具有很重要的指导作用。现在游客流量预测已经有了一个比较成熟的方法系统,但这些方法大多针对于开发得比较成熟且具有一定的游客数据积累的景区。本文以贵州绥阳县双河溶洞国家地质公园为例,尝试将种群增长的Logistic曲线与景区的环境容量相结合的方法,来预测其未来一定时段的游客流量,得到了较为满意的结果,对国内其它类似旅游景区开发具有借鉴意义。     

清代西辽河流域人口增长及其对环境的影响

西辽河流域是国家实施西部大开发战略的重点地区之一,属于典型的生态敏感区和生态脆弱区,研究流域人口变化及其对环境的影响是寻求区域人地关系和谐发展的必由之路。本文考察了清代260余年间西辽河流域蒙古族和汉族人口的变化,并指出正是由于清政府不能从长远的观点制定合理的开发政策,使人口增长过快,增强了人口对资源的压力,造成了植被的破坏、野生动物的锐减和土地退化与水土流失的出现。因此,政府在制定开发政策时,要从长远的观点出发,处理好产业发展与保护环境的关系。     

城市功能对经济增长影响的空间计量分析——以珠三角城市群为例

文章运用2003-2017年珠三角9市的相关数据,构建空间杜宾模型和城市地理系统分形模型,分析了城市功能对经济增长的影响.研究表明:①城市功能专业化基础上的城市间功能互补,或者说注重城市间功能互补的城市功能专业化对本地经济增长有显著的促进作用,对其他城市也有显著的溢出效应;②只追求功能专业化对本地经济增长有促进作用,但...     

包容性旅游增长的概念内涵、实现机制和政策建议

近年来包容性增长理念在国内外得到日益广泛的认同。本文分析了包容性增长和包容性旅游增长的概念与内涵,提出了以旅游系统为框架的包容性旅游增长实现机制,并对该机制进行了系统外部和内部两个层面的详细解析。以此为基础,本文提出加强产业融合、扩大旅游需求、加强旅游扶贫、优化旅游利益分配机制、提高旅游公共服务水平是包容性旅游增长政策的基本立足点。结合我国实际,本文提出应通过拓宽产业融合广度和提高其深度之政策来推动实现我国旅游业外部包容性增长。针对旅游业内部包容性增长,本文提出了四个方面的政策建议：出台全国性的“国民休闲计划”,大力发展国民旅游;加大针对贫困地区的旅游扶贫力度,创新旅游扶贫方式;发展社区利益型旅游业,优化旅游利益分配机制;强化旅游公共服务体系建设,建立多层次的旅游公共服务系统。     

我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系研究——基于1978-2007年东、中、西部、东北地区面板数据

本文选取1978-2007年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验及误差修正模型对我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系进行了检验。实证结果表明:从全国来看,城市化是经济增长的长短期原因,但经济增长是城市化的长短期原因均无法得到证实;东部地区的城市化与经济增长的长短期均互为因果关系;对于中、西部、东北地区而言,城市化是经济增长的长期原因,但不是其短期原因,长短期内经济增长都不是城市化的原因。     

旅游业与我国经济增长关系的实证分析

旅游业与国民经济增长之间的关系一直是有关学者研究的对象,这也导致了对旅游业地位的不同认识。本文利用历史数据对改革开放以来中国居民旅游消费支出与经济增长之间的关系作出判断,认为我国旅游业与经济增长之间并不存在稳定的因果关系。文章对产生这种现象的原因进行了分析,并提出了相关政策建议。     

Suburbanization and sprawl in post-socialist Belgrade and Sofia

The goal of this research is to examine the processes of suburbanization and sprawl in two post-socialist capital cities in Southeast Europe – Belgrade, Serbia and Sofia, Bulgaria. Our analysis begins with a survey of relevant historical developments in the two cities, which illustrates the impact of major political, economic and social drivers on urban development processes and form. We follow this with an empirical study aimed at identifying contemporary features of peri-urban processes occurring in the two cities. Specifically, we explore spatial patterns, general population trends and changes in urban densities. Our study confirms earlier observations by other researchers that processes of suburbanization are occurring in Belgrade and Sofia. Yet this research goes further and emphasizes the specific combination of conditions inherited from the era of state socialism and the features of South-east European urban culture. Thus regarding the form of urban expansion, we observe relatively weak trends of sprawl with strong local specifics. On this basis, we discuss our empirical results with the objective of identifying the specifics of studied processes in Belgrade and Sofia as a grounds for the articulation of an appropriate policy framework.     

Inclusive growth from an urban perspective: a challenge for the metropolis of the twenty-first century

This paper addresses the study of inclusive growth from an urban perspective. It proposes to focus the relationship between urban economic growth and income distribution in cities in which manufacturing production and external demand play a central role. Opposed to the literature that considers economic growth leads to an increase in inequality in income distribution, we present some operative economic tools from Marshallian Industrial Districts theory and from urban economic theory with which to develop an economic strategy for inclusive urban growth, making possible to achieve simultaneously economic growth and improvements in income distribution. An interesting example of a metropolis with a dynamic of economic and employment growth compatible with a reduction in income inequality is provided by Barcelona. This metropolis disposes a Survey of living conditions and habits of the population since 1986 that allows an analysis in terms of inclusive urban growth.     

Architectural rumors: unrealized megaprojects in Baku,Azerbaijan and their politico-economic uses

This article examines the agency of unrealized megaprojects in bolstering economic activity, legitimizing political regimes, and expanding designer’s portfolios. It argues that such proposals serve as a form of “Architectural Rumor,” providing politico-economic agency despite ultimate project infeasibility. Specifically, it looks at two case studies of proposed yet unrealized island megaprojects in the city of Baku, Azerbaijan: the 2009 Zira Island Master Plan and the 2010 Khazar Islands Plan. Spectacular urban design and architecture have long served as catalysts for development, investment attraction, and real estate speculation. As cities compete with one another to lure capital and boost their global status, many design proposals have become increasingly expensive, ostentatious, and technologically sophisticated. The high-risk financial nature of grand urban design proposals and their frequent associations with displacement or environmental destruction suggests that the megaproject model is becoming flawed. At the same time, there remain advantages for clients and politicians to proposing designs that are more spectacular than feasible. Using a mixed-methods approach, four key arenas in which unrealized proposals circulate are described. The various benefits and detriments of such an approach to architectural commodification are also discussed, foregrounding the broader societal costs.