Toward a Dynamic Theory of Crime and the Police: A Criminal Justice System Perspective

Abstract

The author looks at the fertility, mortality, and marriage experience of racial, ethnic, and nativity groups in the United States from the nineteenth to the late twentieth centuries. The first part of the essay describes and critiques the racial and ethnic categories used in the federal census and in the published vital statistics; the second part examines the three dimensions of demographic behavior. Both absolute and relative convergence of fertility across groups has been of relatively recent origin and in large part has been due to stable, or even slightly increasing, birthrates for the majority white population combined with declining birthrates for blacks and the Asian-origin, Hispanic-origin, and Amerindian populations. This has not been true for mortality. The black population has experienced absolute convergence but relative deterioration in mortality (neonatal and infant mortality, maternal mortality, expectation of life at birth, and age-adjusted death rates), in contrast with the Amerindian and Asian-origin populations. The Asian-origin population now has age-adjusted death rates significantly lower than those for the white population. The disadvantaged condition of the black population and the deteriorating social safety net are the likely origins of this outcome. Finally, a trend toward earlier and more extensive marriage existed from about 1900 until the 1960s. At this point, coincident with the end of the baby boom, there has been a movement to later marriage for both males and females among whites, blacks, and the Hispanic-origin populations, a trend that has been more extreme in the black population, especially among females. There has also been a significant rise in percentages never-married at ages 45-54 among blacks and, to a lesser extent, among Hispanics. So here, too, there has been some divergence.     

Missing an opportunity: the Italian Mezzogiorno's trading troubles during European integration

Among the many troubles that southern Italy's economy is facing, its deficient trade performance receives little attention. Yet the Mezzogiorno's comparative disadvantage in trade is a recurring theme in the long history of Italian inter-regional disparities. Adverse conditions for firms in tradeables persist while European integration opens up new opportunities for this sector to expand. In this paper, a dataset of employment rates in tradeable and non-tradeable sectors from 2000 to 2010 is constructed to analyse the strength and development of the Mezzogiorno's export base during European integration. The analysis shows that the new trade opportunities alone did not suffice to even the Mezzogiorno regions' road to export orientation.     

Explaining the evolution of ironmaking recipes – An example from northwest Wales

Building on insights from previous Darwinian studies of technology, this paper explores the potential of evolutionary models to explain diversity and change in bloomery ironmaking recipes. Bloomery, or direct process ironmaking, involves the solid state reduction of iron oxide to metal and was the predominant means of producing iron in the pre-industrial world. The most archaeologically accessible record of bloomery practice is slag, an essential by-product of the smelting process. Ironmaking recipes can be characterized by their slag chemistry using a combination of multivariate statistics, ternary phase diagrams, and oxide ratios. Models derived from evolutionary theory are used to explain the shape, structure, and trajectories of ironmaking lineages identified from patterns of slag chemistry in terms of invention, selection, and socially mediated constraint processes. The utility of this approach is demonstrated by its application to slag excavated at Llwyn Du, a late medieval bloomery in northwest Wales.     

Detecting the effects of selection and stochastic forces in archaeological assemblages

Detecting and diagnosing the causes of change through time in archaeological assemblages is a core enterprise of archaeology. Evolutionary approaches to this problem typically cast the causes of culture change as being either stochastic in origin, or arising from selection. Stochastic sources of change include random innovations, copying errors, drift and founder effects among dispersing groups. Selection is driven by differences in payoffs between cultural variants. Most efforts to identify these evolutionary forces in the archaeological record have relied on assessing how well the predictions from a neutral-stochastic model of cultural transmission fit a data set. Selection is inferred when the neutral-stochastic model fits poorly. A problem with this approach is that it does not test directly for the presence selection. Moreover, it does not account for the fact that both neutral-stochastic and selective forces can act at the same time on the same cultural variants. A different approach based on the Price Equation allows for the simultaneous measurement of selective and stochastic forces. This paper extends use of the Price Equation to the analysis of selective and stochastic forces operating on multiple artifact types within an assemblage. Ceramic data presented by Steele et al. (2010, Vol. 37(6): 1348–1358) from the Late Bronze Age Hittite site of Bo?azköy-Hattusa, Turkey, provide an opportunity to evaluate the efficacy of this model. The results suggest that selection is a dominant process driving the frequency evolution of different bowl rim types within the assemblage and that stochastic forces played little or no role. It is also clear, however, that we should be attentive to combinations of direct and indirect selective effects within assemblages consisting of multiple artifact types.     

Inter‐artifactual Technology Transfer: Road Building Technology in the Netherlands and the Competition Between Bricks,Macadam, Asphalt and Concrete

How did asphalt become dominant in pavement technology? This analysis argues that the victory of asphalt, as of many other technologies that compete with alternatives, is not so much the result of substitution at the level of the artifact or of the technology, but rather is the result of competition at the level of (technical) properties and (user) functions. The case of pavement technology shows that that technology becomes dominant which appears to be able to integrate as many functions as possible, and notably those originally provided by rival technologies, into its own system. This analysis concludes that in the history of technology the artifact does not always seem to be the most fruitful unit of analysis. Seen from the perspective of the user, artifacts are carriers of function sets. From the perspective of the designer or producer, the technology or artifact that contains the set of properties which best enables the preferred function set has a better chance of becoming dominant.     

Controlling contamination: the origins of clean room technology

Cleanroom technology is central to high tech manufacturing. Its development stems from the convergence of needs in several fields of manufacturing, health care, and military requirements. Small‐sized mechanical and electro‐mechanical devices brought problems with dirt and dust to the forefront, particularly during World War II. High efficiency air filters developed during that conflict rapidly commercialized after the war, and found broader applications. As electronics became a military and commercial staple, filtered and conditioned air, controlled procedures and behaviors, employee training, special uniforms, carefully selected construction design and materials, and physical isolation from other parts of the manufacturing facilities came together in the earliest clean rooms. Diversity in practices drove the demand for standards and fostered further developments. By the 1960s contamination control emerged as a distinct field, with clean room technology at its core. Thus established, the benefits of clean manufacturing spread to other fields and industries. The convergence of needs which underlay earlier developments remained an important developmental dynamic in contamination control.     

空间视角下的区域非均衡再研究:回顾与展望

文章根据新经济地理学理论和空间数据分析技术的最新发展,针对区域经济非均衡中出现的空间集聚、区域差异、增长收敛三种表现方式,分类梳理和归纳了国内外学者在该领域具有代表性的理论和实证成果。这些研究或对其进行了成因分析,或测度了非均衡程度,或完善了产业政策和区域政策,强调了地理因素在区域非均衡发展中的重要作用,拓展了该领域的发展空间。文章的最后进一步提出需要将挖掘微观因素、将社会性变量纳入模型、拓宽研究尺度等下一步研究方向。     

Cultural Transmission Theory and the Archaeological Record: Providing Context to Understanding Variation and Temporal Changes in Material Culture

Cultural transmission (CT) is implicit in many explanations of culture change. Formal CT models were defined by anthropologists 30 years ago and have been a subject of active research in the social sciences in the ensuing years. Although increasing in popularity in recent years, CT has not seen extensive use in archaeological research, despite the quantitative rigor of many CT models and the ability to create testable hypotheses. Part of the reason for the slow adoption, we argue, has been the continuing focus on change in central tendency and mode in archaeology, instead of change in dispersion or variance. Yet archaeological research provides an excellent data source for exploring processes of CT. We review CT research in the anthropological sciences and outline the benefits and drawbacks of this theoretical framework for the study of material culture. We argue that CT can shed much light on our understandings of why material technology changes over time, including explanations of differential rates of change among different technologies. We further argue that transmission processes are greatly affected by the content, context, and mode of transmission and fundamentally structure variation in material culture. Including ideas from CT can provide greater context for explaining and understanding changes in the variation of artifacts over time. Finally, we outline what we feel should be the goals of CT research in archaeology in the coming years.     

DARWINIAN WE ARE NOT: COUNTERFACTUALISM AS THE NATURAL COURSE OF HISTORY

This article considers Peter Bowler's recent contribution to the genre of counterfactual history as exemplifying a “restrained” counterfactual framework, one that must downplay the role of contingency in the historical process in order to present what Bowler calls a more “natural course” of historical development. This restrained counterfactual methodology is discussed with reference to analogous debates within evolutionary science about the competing roles of contingency and convergence in the history of life, along with recent work done within the humanities about the more subtle nuances of counterfactual reasoning. Although there is little doubt that Bowler's study will help legitimize the genre of counterfactual history, it is argued that the role of contingency—once thought to be integral to the counterfactual—has been necessarily minimized in order to construct a narrative that is a plausible counterfactual history of science. It is in this way that Bowler's world without Darwin sheds light on our historiographical preconceptions about what makes for a plausible historical narrative.     

Punishment Policy in the American States from 1890 to 2008: Convergence,Divergence, Synchronous Change,and Feed‐Forward Effects

This analysis of the patterns of change in the use of incarceration by the American states from 1890 through 2008 focuses on multiple themes particularly relevant to an understanding of policy arenas in which the social constructions of target populations play an important role. Specifically, the study examines whether the states have adopted more similar incarceration levels over time (converged), whether they tend to change in the same direction at the same time (synchronous change), and whether they tend to stay in the same relative positions vis‐à‐vis one another, such that the historical policy position has long‐term implications for later policy positions (“feed‐forward” effects). The results indicate that, in spite of a century of social, political, and economic integration, the policy positions of the states have not exhibited a sustained convergence toward a common level of incarceration, but have undergone cycles, with some periods of convergence followed by periods of divergence. Change has generally been synchronous—as states tend to move in the same direction at the same time as if propelled by national forces even though incarceration levels are determined by state and local policy and the use of discretion by criminal justice officials. The results also indicate a profound “feed‐forward” effect in that the position of the states vis‐à‐vis one another historically has substantial predictive power for their position in subsequent years.