Seasonal weather sensitivity,temperature thresholds,and climate change impacts for park visitation

Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.     

Climate change adaptation of the tourism sector in the Bolivian Andes

Over the last 40 years, warmer temperatures have caused a considerable decrease in snow cover on glaciers and high rates of glacial melt, particularly in tropical mountains. In the Bolivian Andes, the Chacaltaya glacier (5400 masl) had been a tourist destination known as the highest ski slope in the world since 1939. As a result of climate change, skiing has not been possible after 1987 and the glacier definitely disappeared in 2009. However, since 2005, the place has become a new attraction for tourists. Travel agencies in La Paz now offer day trips to the Chacaltaya site. In order to understand the present attraction of the site and its potential for reproduction elsewhere, 25 semi-structured interviews were conducted with various categories of stakeholders involved in the tourism industry in La Paz, and archives and images were analysed. Our results show that the multifunctional character of this tourist site, including easy access to a summit, beautiful views, acclimatisation to altitude and opportunity to experience snow, are key factors in its renewed attraction for visitors, together with, to a lesser extent, the incentive of being able to watch a famous and evident full disappearance of a glacier and former ski slope. The stakeholders' groups share general views and perceptions about environmental changes and about the qualities of the site, but they also differ in terms of projects and evaluation of potential attractiveness. In particular, the development of the visibility of climate change impacts on mountain environment is valued by experts or by members of the Andean Club, but not by travel agencies. The example of Chacaltaya shows that multifunctional tourist sites may still be attractive in the future.     

展望中国人文地理学的发展

中国自改革开放以来,人文地理学得到了复兴,在理论、方法和研究内容方面都有了新的发展,其中尤以经济地理学、城市地理学和旅游地理学的进展较快,原先被视为禁区的政治地理学、文化地理学和社会地理学,也开始出现了一批可喜的成果。目前在中国经济体制转轨的新形势下,中国人文地理学正处于一个重要的转折时期,即面临着严重的挑战,又出现了前所未有的发展机遇。
在迈入21世纪时,作者建议中国人文地理学着重研究以下各课题:
(1)为充实中国人文地理学的基础理论,研究人地关系地域系统;
(2)为配合(中国21世纪议程)的实施,研究全国和各地区社会经济的持续发展;
(3)以土地利用为中心来研究全球变化和人类活动的关系;
(4)从节约利用和保护资源出发,研究地区自然资源系统;
(5)为发扬中国地理学的传统,更认真地为农业服务,研究促进农业和农村的持续发展问题;
(6)从理论和方法上提高区域地理研究的水平、并配合国家任务,开展区域综合发展的研究,包括国家和各省经济建设的重点区、海域、生态脆弱区等。     

河口港城市形态演变的分析研究——兼论宁波城市形态的历史演变及发展

该文在对港口城市形态的影响因素的分析基础上,提出了港口城市形态的演变机制和河口港城市形态的演变规律。并且通过对宁波城市形态历史演变的实证分析,结合宁波城市发展的战略目标,提出了宁波城市形态的合理发展趋势。     

LIMITATIONS OF USING A COARSE RESOLUTION MODEL TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SEA ICE IN HUDSON BAY

The simulation of Sea-ice in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model is examined in Hudson Bay and surrounding waters. Sea-ice distribution and duration compared well to climatological values, although ice thickness is undersimulated as it is in other modelling work. In Hudson Bay ice thickness variation was dominated by the atmospheric forcing as shown by the symmetric response of ice thickness to warming and cooling scenarios. Below ice heat fluxes play a more significant role in Foxe Basin and Baffin Bay where they mitigate air-ice heat loss by as much as 40 percent, thus limiting ice thickness and duration. Below ice heat flux reduces by 23 percent for the region of study (Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, Baffin Bay, and Labrador Sea) for a global 3°C cooling and increases by 9 percent for a 3°C global warming. This asymmetric response is attributed to the ocean's asymmetric response to warming and cooling scenarios. In so much as Hudson Bay is dominated by atmospheric forcing rather than under ice heat as these results indicate, coarse resolution models may be useful in assessing the impact of change. However the necessary reconfiguration of the model grid render results from Foxe Basin and Hudson Strait less credible. On étudie la simulation de glace marine dans un modèle de circulation océanique générale à faible résolution dans la baie d'Hudson et dans les eaux avoisinantes. La distribution et la durée de la glace marine correspondent bien aux valeurs climatologiques, bien que l'épaisseur de la glace soit sous-simulée comme c'est le cas dans d'autres travaux de modélisation. Dans la baie d'Hudson, la variation de l'epaisseur de la glace est dominée par le forçage atmosphérique, comme on peut le voir d'après la réponse symétrique de l'épaisseur de la glace suivant les scénarios de réchauffement et de refroidissement. Les flux de chaleur sous la glace jouent un rôle plus important dans le bassin de Foxe et la baie Baffin, où ils permettent une réduction des pertes de chaleur air-glace allant jusqu'à 40 pour cent, limitant ainsi l'épaisseur de la glace et la durée. Le flux de chaleur sous la glace diminue de 23 pour cent dans la région étudiée (baie d'Hudson, bassin de Foxe, baie Baffin et mer du Labrador) pour un refroidissement global de 3C et augmente de 9 pour cent pour un réchauffement global de 3C. On attribue cette réponse asymétrique à la réponse asymétrique de l'océan aux scénarios de refroidissement et de réchauffement. Dans la mesure où, comme l'indiquent ces résultats, la baie d'Hudson est dominée par le forçage atmosphérique plutôt que par la chaleur sous la glace, des modèles à faible résolution peuvent être utiles pour évaluer l'impact des changements. Cependant, la reconfiguration nécessaire de la grille du modèle atténue la crédibilité des résultats obtenus dans le Bassin de Foxe et le détroit d'Hudson.     

城市语言景观研究进展及展望

语言景观是城市景观的重要组成部分,同时也是重要的人文地理表征。新世纪以来语言景观日益引起语言学家和地理学家的关注和重视。1997年西方社会语言学家首先提出了语言景观(linguistic landscape)定义,21世纪以来涌现出大量城市语言景观研究成果;国内语言景观主要集中在城镇书法景观的地理学研究,主要包括书法景观与城镇景观的关系、书法景观的空间属性、书法景观的人地关系等。论文从三个方面对城市语言景观进行了评述。最后从语言地理学视角,对未来城市语言景观重要研究内容进行了展望,认为城市语言景观将可能成为语言地理学深入研究的有效途径和新方向,尤其是在城市象征空间塑造及其地方建构中语言景观研究将大有作为。     

Tuvalu and Climate Change: Constructions of Environmental Displacement in The Sydney Morning Herald

Tuvalu, a place whose image in the ‘West’ is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change‐related sea‐level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as .tragic victims. of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low‐lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change.     

制度变迁与中国城市的发展及空间结构的历史演变

我国的城市发展水平同经济发展水平的偏离,说明对城市发展及其空间结构演变分析不能仅局限在物质经济领域,需要我们寻求影响城市发展及其空间结构变化的新因素一制度因素,把制度作为影响城市发展及其空间结构的一个主要的变量,来对此加以解释。为此,本首先构建了“制度变迁一城市发展变化”的理论框架,然后用该理论从宏观和微观两个方面来检验1949-1998年间制度变迁对城市发展及其空间结构的影响。与西方国家的以市场经济为主要动力驱动型的城市发展模式不同,中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变在很大程度上是制度变迁而诱致的结果。但不同的制度对城市数量增长、组织体系及空间布局和对城市空间结构演变的作用力度又不尽相同。改革开放后,由于制度变迁带来的激励作用,中国城市获得了快速发展,城市空间结构快速变化。但与此同时,中国城市化的发展水平与相同发展条件下的世界城市化水平的差距却在拉大。而且随着市场经济体制的逐步完善,影响城市增长及空间结构的演变力量的因素越来越趋于分散化,制度变迁对城市发展所带来的激励作用正在弱化。为适应新世纪我国城市发展的战略目标,需要进行体制创新,为中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变提供新的制度支持。     

内蒙古中南部考古学文化演变的环境学透视

内蒙古中南部位于我国北方农牧交错带的中段, 是气侯变化的敏感地区。全新世以来的气侯波动, 对于塑造这里的自然景观和古文化的面貌起着重要的作用。本文分析了全新世大暖期的不同时段上古文化的特点和生计方式的变化, 并从沙地进退、湖面升降的视角探讨了这一地区考古学文化的演变以及人地之间相互作用的过程。     

荀悦考察历史的方法

东汉后期著名史学家荀悦的著作《汉纪》和《申鉴》中包含着卓越的史识。这主要表现他把历史看成是发展的,各种制度应适应时代与社会的发展而变化,统治者必须随时而变,随机应变。他认为考察历史问题应与具体的社会环境结合起来,具体问题具体分析,主张将不同的政治主张置于具体历史时空中探讨。他既能从整体上把握事物,从多角度加以探讨,又能考察事物的不同方面,分析其内在联系。他看到事物具有相对性的特点,主张通过比较把握事物的共性与个性,认为考察事物要透过现象看本质。他朦胧地意识到事物内部存在既相互对立又相互联系的两个方面,在人物评价中注意分析其两重性。荀悦的史识值得我们认真总结。