Droughts as random events in the Maya lowlands

Because the values of most of the parameters controlling the occurrence and severity of a drought in a given location are unknown, and no periodicity has been observed, droughts can be considered random events. Running a random number generator within the limits of the annual rainfall variability relevant to the Maya lowlands, and defining a “Lean Year”, it is observed that strings of lean years occur quite frequently. Defining “Severe Drought”, “Disaster”, and “Catastrophe” based on the length of these strings, it is observed that a severe drought occurs on average every 32 years, a disaster occurs on average every 130 years, and a catastrophe on average every 500 years. These values fit the measured variability of the Yucatan climate, as observed in lake core sediments and in the post conquest written records. It also fits the average occurrence of “megadroughts” in the US Great Plains.The fit between the random occurrence model and the actual, “measured” occurrence of droughts supports the notion that for all practical purposes, droughts had been random events in the Maya region and could not be predicted. The lack of evident periodicity could be one of the reasons why means for long-term storage of food products were not developed there. It may also have affected the relationship between the priesthood and the general populace in that region.Since the method described here can be applied to any climatic region once the rainfall variability and the sensitivity of the local agriculture are known or can be estimated, if similar results are found they may probably have affected other regions with other ancient cultures in a similar way.     

A locally-adaptive model of archaeological potential (LAMAP)

A new method for modelling archaeological resource potential is presented that avoids some of the mathematical violations and inconsistencies of previously-favoured techniques. The Minanha research area in west-central Belize and a database of other Maya centres from within Belize are used as a case study for demonstrating the utility of the proposed modelling technique.     

The Archaeology of Copán, Honduras

Copán, a major Classic Maya center in western Honduras, has been the focus of archaeological investigation for over a century. An intense period of research since 1975, involving projects and scholars from many institutions, has resulted in a comprehensive understanding of the origin, maturation, and decline of this major Maya polity.     

Human biology in the Classic Maya collapse: Evidence from paleopathology and paleodiet

We review evidence from human biology—paleopathological and isotopic paleodietary studies on ancient Maya skeletons—to assess the validity of ecological models of the Classic Maya collapse, in which elevated disease and deteriorating diet are commonly assumed. To be upheld, the health arguments of ecological models require that the Maya disease burden (1) was greater than that for many other societies and (2) increased over the span of occupation. The dietary argument requires (1) consistent change in diet from Preclassic and Early Classic Periods to the Terminal Classic and (2) increasing social divergence in diet. A correlation between diet and disease is necessary to link these arguments. Neither pathology nor isotopic data consistently support these criteria. Instead, it appears that local environmental and political factors created diversity in both disease burden and diet. In view of the human biological data, we are skeptical of ecological models as generalized explanations for the abandonment of Classic Maya sites in the southern lowlands.