Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

A new approach to the tympanum of Neuilly-en-Donjon

Romanesque sculpture can be profitably studied by trying to create the thought processes of those responsible for designing the programs. In particular, the thought pattern of associating various biblical stories which contain the same or similar words can be applied to the program of the little church of Neuilly-en-Donjon (Allier). It is clear that the various stories depicted are related to one another by sound - for example the Adoration of the Magi and the fall of Simon Magus and Mary Magdalen at the house of Simon the Pharisee. However, just as the genius of a monastic author such as Bernard of Clairvaux was the thematic unity he could use to organize these aural associations, so does the importance of the program at Neuilly derive from the sophisticated thematic unity of the program around the theological virtue of faith. From this study, we can learn not only to appreciate the genius of the designer of the program at Neuilly but also to attempt to unlock other secrets of Romanesque sculpure by applying this or other elements of contemporary thought processes to the parts of a program.