OBTAINING PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES OF DISPLACEMENT ON A LANDSLIDE DURING FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

The assessment of earthquake triggered landslide hazard may be undertaken using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques. Probabilistic methods have been developed because much of the data can be considered as random variables where parameters such as the angle of internal friction and moisture content do not have a single fixed value but may assume any number of values across a range. This random variability can be modelled by a probability density function (PDF) which describes the relative likeli-hood that a random variable will assume a particular value. Instead of using just the average or expected value of an input parameter, the complete range of possible values can be used to estimate a range of possible outcomes. Thus the probability of a slope being unstable can be obtained rather than a single indicator of stability. Such proba-bilistic analyses allow for the incorporation of the likely variability of each parameter and therefore allow a more intimate assessment of slope stability to be derived. Utilising empirical relationships for calculating earthquake ground motions and associated slope displacement, an investigation was undertaken to identify the contribution that modern simulation techniques could make to the assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides. To achieve this, geotechnical and earthquake data obtained from a deep-seated landslide triggered during the M _w 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake was used. By incorporating the variability of the geotechnical parameters and the uncertainty in earthquake location the model derived the probabilities associated with increasing amounts of slope displacement during future probable earthquakes. Analysis was undertaken for four of the principal fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area. These estimates were then combined with the occurrence probabilities of the earthquakes to provide temporal estimates of dis-placement for a 30 year period. Results indicated that a M _w 7.0 earthquake located on the Peninsula Segment of the San Andreas fault was most hazardous with a 11% chance of minor slope displacement (≥0.10 m) and a 6% chance of moderate slope displacement (≥0.30 m) within the next 30 years.     

People,Space and Place: a Multidimensional Analysis of Unemployment in Metropolitan Labour Markets

It is becoming increasingly apparent that, in order to understand a range of socio-economic outcomes, research needs to be focused on a multi-dimensional approach that accounts for individual characteristics and behaviours together with locality and activity within space and place. Within labour market analysis there is a need to situate empirical analysis within a conceptual framework that considers both the assets of individuals within the labour force and the social and local labour market contexts in which they find themselves. Using a broad notion of employability, this paper develops an analysis of unemployment in Australia's metropolitan labour markets. Specifically it uses a combination of individual survey data and aggregate labour market data to consider the associations between these multi-level factors. It finds that, while individual characteristics are important in understanding unemployment in metropolitan areas, it is equally the case that the strength of spatially distinct labour markets also plays a role. The paper reaches the conclusion that, while contemporary labour market policy tends to focus on individual characteristics, there is a need to widen the policy understanding of labour market outcomes so that other broader contexts, including the impact of space and place, are also seen as being influential.     

'Nothing Could Exceed the Badness of His Character Even in This Bad Age'

Initially the model for the speakership of the US house of representatives could not but be drawn from Westminster, though the occupants of the chair in the Commons around the time of independence were not impressive. Not however till Henry Clay's election in 1812 was the American Speaker transformed into a partisan, politically-active leader of the House. The contemporary Commons Speaker, Manners Sutton, though he failed to be re-elected to the chair on political grounds, was not a party leader. Between Clay and the civil war the intensity of party conflict obscured the role of the Speaker, and minorities flourished. Speaker Reed in the 1880s believed in the rights of the majority and used the authority of the chair to promote them. He ended the practice of members delaying business by refusing to answer a roll-call though present, and he developed special rules to accelerate the progress of bills. About the same time, Speaker Brand in the Commons, in the face of Irish obstructionism, also reasserted the rights of the majority by introducing the closure, to which guillotines were later added. Reed's authoritarianism broke in the hands of Speaker Cannon in 1909–10 as progressive members of his party rebelled. By then the Commons speakership had entered a period of complete political neutrality. Speakers O'Neill and Gingrich in the last quarter of the 20th century regained much of the power and authority which Cannon's speakership had lost.     

Identifying Functional Regions in Australia Using Hierarchical Aggregation Techniques

This paper continues our work focused on developing a new socio-economic geography for Australia such that the chosen spatial aggregation of data is based on an analysis of economic behaviour. The underlying hypothesis is that the development of a geographical classification based on underlying economic behaviour will provide new insights into critical issues of regional performance, including unemployment differentials, the impact of industry, infrastructure and changes in local public expenditure on local labour markets. As a precursor to detailed work on the 2006 Census of Population and Housing data, we establish the proof of concept in this paper of the Intramax methodology using 2001 Journey-to-Work data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the state of New South Wales. The functional regionalisation generated by the Intramax method is then tested using ABS labour force data. We compare 2001 ABS Census of Population and Housing data aggregated by the ABS labour force regions to the same data aggregated using our functional regions. The results demonstrate the potential value of this technique for the development of a new geography.     

The UK,threshold status and responsible nuclear sovereignty

The example of the UK is used to explore two linked ideas relevant to the current international politics of nuclear weapons: that of the threshold state, whereby a state moves from possession to non‐possession of weapons rather than in the opposite direction; and that of responsible nuclear sovereignty, adapting the notion of responsible sovereignty to the nuclear context. The UK regards itself as an exemplar of responsible nuclear sovereignty and is closest to the disarmament threshold, being driven closer by military and economic stresses. Nuclear disarmament will require all nuclear‐armed states to approach and cross this threshold, a journey assisted albeit ambiguously by the shared practice and norms of responsible nuclear sovereignty. Yet the nine nuclear‐armed states' relations to the threshold differ markedly, raising more questions about the feasibility of the popular model of coordinated disarmament. Although coordination remains desirable, the UK seems more likely to abandon its nuclear force by deciding that ‘enough is enough’ than through the conclusion of a grand multilateral initiative.     

When is a nation ‘a nation’? Identity‐formation within a French West Indian people (Martinique)*

ABSTRACT. Nationhood is usually considered a subjective state of being acquired by a self‐conscious group sharing cultural distinctiveness and political goals. Social scientists and historians also endeavor to delineate objective factors that impart national status to minority peoples. Rarely do the elected officials of a non‐sovereign people have the opportunity to vote on whether or not their constituency constitutes a discrete nation. The extraordinary Congress of 2002 in Martinique did provide such an opportunity, however. The contradictory outcomes of that seminal event – including the plebiscite one year later on a proposed change of status for this Caribbean island within the French Republic – reveal much about the ambiguous status of Martinican group identity. They also underline the need for theoreticians of nationalism to take into account politically and culturally specific understandings of the very concept of ‘nation’. That a formerly colonised people may materially benefit disproportionately from ongoing institutional relationships with its former colonial power – countercolonialism – also needs to be considered.