LIMITATIONS OF USING A COARSE RESOLUTION MODEL TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SEA ICE IN HUDSON BAY

The simulation of Sea-ice in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model is examined in Hudson Bay and surrounding waters. Sea-ice distribution and duration compared well to climatological values, although ice thickness is undersimulated as it is in other modelling work. In Hudson Bay ice thickness variation was dominated by the atmospheric forcing as shown by the symmetric response of ice thickness to warming and cooling scenarios. Below ice heat fluxes play a more significant role in Foxe Basin and Baffin Bay where they mitigate air-ice heat loss by as much as 40 percent, thus limiting ice thickness and duration. Below ice heat flux reduces by 23 percent for the region of study (Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, Baffin Bay, and Labrador Sea) for a global 3°C cooling and increases by 9 percent for a 3°C global warming. This asymmetric response is attributed to the ocean's asymmetric response to warming and cooling scenarios. In so much as Hudson Bay is dominated by atmospheric forcing rather than under ice heat as these results indicate, coarse resolution models may be useful in assessing the impact of change. However the necessary reconfiguration of the model grid render results from Foxe Basin and Hudson Strait less credible. On étudie la simulation de glace marine dans un modèle de circulation océanique générale à faible résolution dans la baie d'Hudson et dans les eaux avoisinantes. La distribution et la durée de la glace marine correspondent bien aux valeurs climatologiques, bien que l'épaisseur de la glace soit sous-simulée comme c'est le cas dans d'autres travaux de modélisation. Dans la baie d'Hudson, la variation de l'epaisseur de la glace est dominée par le forçage atmosphérique, comme on peut le voir d'après la réponse symétrique de l'épaisseur de la glace suivant les scénarios de réchauffement et de refroidissement. Les flux de chaleur sous la glace jouent un rôle plus important dans le bassin de Foxe et la baie Baffin, où ils permettent une réduction des pertes de chaleur air-glace allant jusqu'à 40 pour cent, limitant ainsi l'épaisseur de la glace et la durée. Le flux de chaleur sous la glace diminue de 23 pour cent dans la région étudiée (baie d'Hudson, bassin de Foxe, baie Baffin et mer du Labrador) pour un refroidissement global de 3C et augmente de 9 pour cent pour un réchauffement global de 3C. On attribue cette réponse asymétrique à la réponse asymétrique de l'océan aux scénarios de refroidissement et de réchauffement. Dans la mesure où, comme l'indiquent ces résultats, la baie d'Hudson est dominée par le forçage atmosphérique plutôt que par la chaleur sous la glace, des modèles à faible résolution peuvent être utiles pour évaluer l'impact des changements. Cependant, la reconfiguration nécessaire de la grille du modèle atténue la crédibilité des résultats obtenus dans le Bassin de Foxe et le détroit d'Hudson.     

The collapse of British foreign policy

British foreign policy has tried to balance between the United States and continental Europe for the past half-century, with an unambiguous commitment to a special relationship with Washington and an ambiguous commitment to European integration. New Labour has followed its predecessors in this, claiming that Britain can act as a bridge between America and Europe, or as a pivot around which transatlantic relations turn. In the wake of the Iraq war, deepened scepticism in Washington about whether close European cooperation is in America's interest, and scepticism across continental Europe that Britain can or should act as a privileged interlocuteur, have undermined both ends of the bridge on which British foreign policy claims to rest. The end of US commitment to Atlanticism, together with post-Cold War divergence between US and European interests and values, should have led to a shift in British priorities towards closer cooperation with other major European states and-from that shared perspective-an attempt to reconstruct a more balanced transatlantic relationship. The EU presents a sadly weak framework for such a strategy; but Britain's domestic debate, in which this government-like its predecessors-has allowed a Eurosceptic press to shape the language of foreign policy, has made it more difficult for any government to change direction. Recent government speeches on foreign policy, however, suggest that ministers still cling to the illusion that Britain has a 'unique' position between Europe and the United States.     

OBTAINING PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES OF DISPLACEMENT ON A LANDSLIDE DURING FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

The assessment of earthquake triggered landslide hazard may be undertaken using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques. Probabilistic methods have been developed because much of the data can be considered as random variables where parameters such as the angle of internal friction and moisture content do not have a single fixed value but may assume any number of values across a range. This random variability can be modelled by a probability density function (PDF) which describes the relative likeli-hood that a random variable will assume a particular value. Instead of using just the average or expected value of an input parameter, the complete range of possible values can be used to estimate a range of possible outcomes. Thus the probability of a slope being unstable can be obtained rather than a single indicator of stability. Such proba-bilistic analyses allow for the incorporation of the likely variability of each parameter and therefore allow a more intimate assessment of slope stability to be derived. Utilising empirical relationships for calculating earthquake ground motions and associated slope displacement, an investigation was undertaken to identify the contribution that modern simulation techniques could make to the assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides. To achieve this, geotechnical and earthquake data obtained from a deep-seated landslide triggered during the M _w 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake was used. By incorporating the variability of the geotechnical parameters and the uncertainty in earthquake location the model derived the probabilities associated with increasing amounts of slope displacement during future probable earthquakes. Analysis was undertaken for four of the principal fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area. These estimates were then combined with the occurrence probabilities of the earthquakes to provide temporal estimates of dis-placement for a 30 year period. Results indicated that a M _w 7.0 earthquake located on the Peninsula Segment of the San Andreas fault was most hazardous with a 11% chance of minor slope displacement (≥0.10 m) and a 6% chance of moderate slope displacement (≥0.30 m) within the next 30 years.     

People,Space and Place: a Multidimensional Analysis of Unemployment in Metropolitan Labour Markets

It is becoming increasingly apparent that, in order to understand a range of socio-economic outcomes, research needs to be focused on a multi-dimensional approach that accounts for individual characteristics and behaviours together with locality and activity within space and place. Within labour market analysis there is a need to situate empirical analysis within a conceptual framework that considers both the assets of individuals within the labour force and the social and local labour market contexts in which they find themselves. Using a broad notion of employability, this paper develops an analysis of unemployment in Australia's metropolitan labour markets. Specifically it uses a combination of individual survey data and aggregate labour market data to consider the associations between these multi-level factors. It finds that, while individual characteristics are important in understanding unemployment in metropolitan areas, it is equally the case that the strength of spatially distinct labour markets also plays a role. The paper reaches the conclusion that, while contemporary labour market policy tends to focus on individual characteristics, there is a need to widen the policy understanding of labour market outcomes so that other broader contexts, including the impact of space and place, are also seen as being influential.     

'Nothing Could Exceed the Badness of His Character Even in This Bad Age'

Initially the model for the speakership of the US house of representatives could not but be drawn from Westminster, though the occupants of the chair in the Commons around the time of independence were not impressive. Not however till Henry Clay's election in 1812 was the American Speaker transformed into a partisan, politically-active leader of the House. The contemporary Commons Speaker, Manners Sutton, though he failed to be re-elected to the chair on political grounds, was not a party leader. Between Clay and the civil war the intensity of party conflict obscured the role of the Speaker, and minorities flourished. Speaker Reed in the 1880s believed in the rights of the majority and used the authority of the chair to promote them. He ended the practice of members delaying business by refusing to answer a roll-call though present, and he developed special rules to accelerate the progress of bills. About the same time, Speaker Brand in the Commons, in the face of Irish obstructionism, also reasserted the rights of the majority by introducing the closure, to which guillotines were later added. Reed's authoritarianism broke in the hands of Speaker Cannon in 1909–10 as progressive members of his party rebelled. By then the Commons speakership had entered a period of complete political neutrality. Speakers O'Neill and Gingrich in the last quarter of the 20th century regained much of the power and authority which Cannon's speakership had lost.