Regional Out-Migration Rates and Migration Histories: A Longitudinal Analysis

A longitudinal approach to migration behavior makes it possible to identify a sufficient condition for positive associations between rates of in-migration and rates of out-migration in the same regions. The longitudinal approach centers on the intervals of time that individuals spend in a region, and these intervals can be analyzed in terms of probability distributions or the equivalent hazard functions or survivor functions. Differences in the distributions of these intervals between subpopulations whose residence in a region begins with in-migration and subpopulations whose residence begins with other events are sufficient for temporal variations in rates of in-migration to produce variations in out-migration rates in subsequent periods of time. Tests for such differences are performed using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

NETWORK LOADING VERSUS EQUILIBRIUM ESTIMATION OF THE STOCHASTIC ROUTE CHOICE MODEL MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND LEAST SQUARES REVISITED*

Daganzo (1977, 1979), Daganzo and Sheffi (1977), Sheffi (1985), and Sheffi and Daganzo (1980) have used one assumption about traveler behavior in developing estimation techniques for the stochastic route-choice problem and another assumption in predicting flows on networks by using the same model. In estimation, they calculate the congested travel costs of the network links from observed flows on the network, and the network is loaded based on these costs. In prediction, they follow their stochastic user-equilibrium assumption by which travelers evaluate costs using the mean of the observed flows (or equilibrium flows). The travel-cost coefficient obtained from the loading method systematically overestimates the true travel-cost coefficient from which the observed flow data (which must be used in loading) is generated. The estimates of the same coefficient, obtained in this paper, by constraining the estimation results to conform to the equilibrium conditions are unbiased, and only marginally less efficient (have larger standard deviations). The average percentage error and inefficiency of the link flow predictions based on the loading method increases as the level of congestion on the network rises. In contrast, the average percentage error of link flow predictions based on the equilibrium estimation method declines and their efficiency remains very high as the level of congestion on the network rises.     

A PRACTICAL NOTE ON THE NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC-BASE MARGINAL MULTIPLIER*

Computation and usage of my neoclassical economic-base marginal multiplier formula (Merrifield, 1987) is simplified. The note points out the economic parameters that must be estimated with some care and for which rough approximations suffice. It also indicates when the size of the multiplier will be significantly affected by the source of the exogenous stimulus (factor- or output-price change). The traditional bifurcation effort must be supplemented with careful estimates of only a small subset of the other parameters. For most of the simulated parameter combinations, the multiplier based on exogenous factor-price changes differed from the multiplier based on output-price changes by less than 10 percent.     

WOMEN'S FACIAL TATTOOING AMONG THE MAISIN OF ORO PROVINCE,PAPUA NEW GUINEA: THE CHANGING SIGNIFICANCE OF AN ANCIENT CUSTOM

The Maisin women of northeastern Papua New Guinea are among the last coastal Papuans to tattoo their faces. This article first describes the techniques and social process of Maisin tattooing. We then examine the resilience of the custom in light of changes in puberty rites and notions of gender. We argue that these contexts have lost their cultural salience as a result of the Maisins' incorporation into the larger Papua New Guinea society. Tattooing has acquired new significance as a marker of cultural identity in a multicultural setting and as a sign of the Maisin people's commercial success as makers of indigenous art.     

A long revolution: Writing the political history of Queensland regimes

Peter Coaldrake, Working the System: Government in Queensland. University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.l85.$12.95 (paper)

Phil Dickie, The Road to Fitzgerald: Revelations of Corruption Spanning Four Decades, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1988. pp.293. $9.95 (paper); second edition, The Road to Fitzgerald ana Beyond, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.337. $12.95 (paper)

Evan Whitton, The Hillbilly Dictator: Australia's Police State, Australian Broadcasting Corporation Enterprises, Crows Nest, NSW, 1989, pp. 197. $16.99 (paper)

Ross Fitzgerald and Harold Thornton, Labor in Queensland: From the 1880s to 1988. University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989, pp.422. $34.95 (paper)

Peter Charlton, State of Mind: Why Queensland is Different, Methuen Haynes, North Ryde, second edition 1987, pp. 263. $12.95 (paper)     

Orientalism Reconsidered: Peter Duignan,Lewis Gann,Edward Said,and the Rebirth of Imperialism

Book reviewed in this article: culture and Imperialism: Edward W. Said The Rebirth of the West: Culture, Politics and Society 7 945–1958: Peter Duignan and L. H. Gann