Gaussian Process Regression and Bayesian Model Averaging: An Alternative Approach to Modeling Spatial Phenomena

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a nonparametric technique that is capable of yielding reliable out‐of‐sample predictions in the presence of highly nonlinear unknown relationships between dependent and explanatory variables. But in terms of identifying relevant explanatory variables, this method is far less explicit about questions of statistical significance. In contrast, more traditional spatial econometric models, such as spatial autoregressive models or spatial error models, place rather strong prior restrictions on the functional form of relationships, but allow direct inference with respect to explanatory variables. In this article, we attempt to combine the best of both techniques by augmenting GPR with a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) component that allows for the identification of statistically relevant explanatory variables while retaining the predictive performance of GPR. In particular, GPR‐BMA yields a posterior probability interpretation of model‐inclusion frequencies that provides a natural measure of the statistical relevance of each variable. Moreover, while such frequencies offer no direct information about the signs of local marginal effects, it is shown that partial derivatives based on the mean GPR predictions do provide such information. We illustrate the additional insights made possible by this approach by applying GPR‐BMA to a benchmark BMA data set involving potential determinants of cross‐country economic growth. It is shown that localized marginal effects based on partial derivatives of mean GPR predictions yield additional insights into comparative growth effects across countries.     

Ruwayda: an historic urban settlement in north Qatar

SUMMARY: Ruwayda was first identified as an archaeological site in the 1970s and was excavated between 2009 and 2014. Despite a paucity of documentary evidence, this large settlement, which extends over an area of more than 90 hectares, contains a number of features indicative of an urban settlement including two mosques, a series of warehouses, a large multi-period fort, large courtyard houses interspersed with smaller, less substantial structures and a number of cemeteries. In addition to these buildings, there is also evidence for associated field systems and a walled garden.     

The history of econometric ideas. Historical perspectives in modern economics

This article presents a comparative analysis of the concepts of totalitarian democracy and positive liberty in the work of Jacob Leib Talmon and Isaiah Berlin. Its main purpose is to show that a combined analysis of Talmon and Berlin's biographical relationship and their individual texts demonstrates that Talmon's idea of totalitarian democracy may have had a greater influence on Berlin's notion of positive liberty than Berlin seems to have ever acknowledged. The article first summarises the intellectual and biographical relationships that tied these two authors together in a personal friendship and an intellectual fellowship that lasted for more than three decades. In the second part, the insights drawn from the investigation of the authors' intellectual and biographical relationships are linked to an analysis of their texts, The Origins of Totalitarian Democracy and Two Concepts of Liberty. Finally, in the third part of the article, three crucial aspects of Talmon's definition of totalitarian democracy are considered: the interpretation of the Enlightenment and Rousseau's thought, the view of the French revolution, and the possible impact each of these has on subsequent Marxist and socialist reflection, to see how they are addressed in Berlin's idea of positive liberty.     

On the tracks of the earliest dinosaurs: implications for the hypothesis of dinosaurian monophyly

From the record of dinosaurian skeletal remains it has been inferred that the origin and initial diversification of dinosaurs were rapid events, occupying an interval of about 5 million years in the Late Triassic. By contrast numerous reports of dinosauroid tracks imply that the emergence of dinosaurs was a more protracted affair extending through much of the Early and Middle Triassic. This study finds no convincing evidence of dinosaur tracks before the late Ladinian. Each of the three dinosaurian clades — Theropoda, Sauropodomorpha, Ornithischia — produced a unique track morphotype that appears to be an independent modification of the chirotherioid pattern attributed to stem-group archosaurs (thecodontian reptiles). The existence of three divergent track morphotypes is consistent with the concept of dinosaurian polyphyly but can be reconciled with the hypothesis of dinosaurian monophyly only by invoking many and rapid reversals in the locomotor anatomy of early dinosaurs. The origin of dinosaurs was not the correlate or consequence of any single event or process, be it global change, competitive replacement, or opportunism in the wake of mass extinction. Instead the origin of dinosaurs is envisaged as a series of three cladogenetic events over an interval of at least 10 million years and possibly as much as 25 million years. This scenario of dinosaurian polyphyly is as well-supported by fossil evidence as is the currently favoured view of dinosaurian monophyly.     

Poromoi Tamu and the Case of the Drowning Village: History, Lost Places and the Stories We Tell

Archaeological excavations at an ancestral village site within rainforest in Papua New Guinea has revealed buried cultural evidence that can be explained in a number of ways. While interpretations based on Western archaeological methods suggest regional landscape dynamics informed by geomorphological processes, Indigenous Rumu oral traditions suggest an interpretation of the site’s stratigraphy based on the workings of spiritual forces. The role of story-telling and new information in site interpretation and understanding is explored in light of these different yet complementary accounts.     

Actualites

Nora, P., ed., Les Lieux de memoire (Gallimard, 1984–1993), 7 vols; last published, Les France, 3. De l'archive à l'emblème, 1034pp., ISBN 2 07 072304 6     

Muslims in Britain and France

Andrew, D., Mists of Regret: Culture and Sensibility in Classic French Film (Princeton Paperbacks, 1995), xv + 409pp., £19.95, ISBN 0 691 00883 3

Barou, J., and Prado, P., Les Anglais dans nos campagnes (L'Harmattan, 1995), 238pp., 140F., ISBN 2 7384 3352 9

Blanchot, M., The Writing of the Disaster, trans. Ann Smock, new edn. (University of Nebraska Press, [1986] 1995), 153pp., £11.00, ISBN 0 8032 6120 9

Brami, J., Cottentenet‐Hage, M., and Verdaguer, P., eds., Regards sur la France des armies 1980 ‐ Le Roman (Anma Libri, 1994), 260pp., ISBN 0 915838 96 6

Brewer, M.M., Claude Simon: Narrativities Without Narrative (University of Nebraska Press, 1995), 183pp., $38.50, ISBN 0 8032 1261 5

Carroll, D., French Literary Fascism: Nationalism, Anti‐Semitism and the Ideology of Culture (Princeton University Press, 1995), 300pp., £24.95, ISBN 0 691 03723 X

Charle, C., A Social History of France in the Nineteenth Century trans. Mirian Kochan, (Berg, 1994), x + 314pp., hbk, ISBN 0 85496 906 2, pbk, ISBN 0 85496 913 6

Cordelier, S., Poisson, E. et al., L'État de la France 1995–96 (La Découverte, 1995), 635pp., 159F., ISBN 2 7071 2447 8

Crisp, C., The Classic French Cinema 1930–1960 (Indiana University Press, 1994), 485pp., £50.00, ISBN 0 2533 1550 6

Crozier, M., La Crise de l'Intelligence (Interéditions, 1995), 200pp., 110F., ISBN 2 7296 0567 3

Debré, M., Combattre Toujours: Mémoires, 1969–1993 (Albin Michel, 1994), 333pp., 150F., ISBN 2 226 07536 4

Dieudonné, P., ed., Villes reconstruites du dessin au iestin (L'Harmattan, 1994), vol. 1, 382pp., 190F., ISBN 2 7384 2605 0, vol. 2, 384pp., 190F., ISBN 2 7384 2606 9

Domenach, N., and Szarfan, M., De si bons amis (Plon, 1994), 454pp., 110F., ISBN 2 259 18018 3

Duchene, F.L., Jean Monnet: the First Statesman of Interdependence (W. W. Norton, 1994), 410pp., £22.00, ISBN 0 393 03497 6

Dutton, D., ed., Statecraft and Diplomacy in the Twentieth Century (Liverpool University Press, 1995), 180pp., £15.05, ISBN 0 85323 379 9

Eck, J.‐F., La France dans la nouvelle economic mondiale (PUF, 1994), 312pp., 150F., ISBN 2 13 046092 5

Forest, P., Histoire de Tel Quel, 1960–82 (Seuil, 1995), 655pp., 180F., ISBN 2 02 017346 8

Gardies, A., L'Espace au cinéma (Meridiens Klincksieck, 1993)

Gregg, J., Maurice Blanchot and the Literature of Transgression (Princeton University Press, 1994), 241pp., £25.00, ISBN 0 691 03329 3

Habert, P., Perrineau, P., and Ysmal, C., eds., Le Vote Sanction: Les élections législatives des 21 et 28 mars 1993 (Départment des études politiques du Figaro et Presses de la Fondation nationale des sciences politiques, 1993), 347pp., 150F., ISBN 2 7246 0634 5

Kessler, M.‐C., Les Grands corps de l'état (Presses Universitaires de France, 1994), 128pp., 36F., ISBN 2 13 046502 1

Kramer, S.P., Does France Still Count? The French Role in the New Europe (Praeger, 1994), 113pp., £11.95, ‘Washington Papers’ series ISBN 0 275 95061 1.

Lallement, M., ed., Travail et emploi: le temps de métamorphoses (L'Harmattan, 1995), 283pp., 150F., ISBN 2 7384 2559 3

Le Crom, J.‐P., Syndicate nous voilal Vichy et le corporatisme (Les Editions Ouvrières, 1995), 410pp., 190F., ISBN 2 7082 3123 5

Lefait, P., Quatre Ministres etpuis s'en vont (Editions de l'Atelier, 1995), 310pp., 120F., ISBN 2 7082 3105 7

Lepetit, B. et al., Atlas de la Révolution française, vol. 8, Population (Editions EHESS, 1995), 92pp., 120F., ISBN 2 7132 1189 1

Manent, P., An Intellectual History of Liberalism, trans. Rebecca Balinski (Princeton University Press, 1994), pp. 128, £16.95, ISBN 0 691 03437 0

Martelli, R., Le rouge et le bleu. Essai sur le communisme français (Editions de l'Atelier, 1995), 286pp., 120F., ISBN 2 7082 3119 7

Mélenchon, J.‐L., Rocard, le rendezvous manqué (Ramsay, 1994), 237pp., 110F..ISBN2 84114 053 9

Minc, A., La France ie l'an 2000 (Odile Jacob/Documentation Française), 321pp., 60F., ISBN 2 7381 0281 6

Osen, J., Royalist Political Thought during the French Revolution (Greenwood Press, 1995), 154pp., £49.50, ISBN 0 313 29441 0

Outram, D., The Enlightenment (Cambridge University Press, 1995), 141pp., £27.95 hbk, ISBN 0 521 41522 5, £9.96 pbk, ISBN 0 521 42534

Phillips, P., Republican France: Divided Loyalties (Greenwood, 1993), xxiii + 168pp., $49.95, ISBN 0 313 27503 3

Platten, D., Djian: 37° 2 le matin (University of Glasgow French &; German Publications, 1995), 92pp., £3.95, ISBN 085261 368 7

Proudhon, P.‐J., What is Property? (CUP, 1994), 227pp., £55 hbk, £12.95 pbk.

Roberts, M., Civilization Without Sexes: Reconstructing Gender in Postwar France 1917–1927 (University of Chicago Press, 1994), 337pp., £15.25, ISBN 0 226 72122 1

Rosanvallon, P., La nouvelle question sociale (Seuil, 1995), 223pp., 95F., ISBN 2 02 022030

Royal, S., Pays, paysans, pay sages. La reconciliation est‐elle possible? (Laffont, 1993), 228pp., 89F., ISBN 2 221 07046 1

Suleiman, E., Les Ressorts cachés de la réussite française (Seuil, 1995), 377pp., 130F., ISBN 2 02 021841 0

Tindall, G., Célestine. Voices from a French Village (Sinclair‐Stevenson, 1995), ix + 286pp., £17.99, ISBN 1 85619 534 1

Tricot, B., Mémoires (Quai Voltaire, 1994), 503pp., 148F., ISBN 2 87653 209 3

Veillon, D., Vivre et Survivre en France 1939–1947 (Editions Payot, 1995), 371pp., 145F., ISBN 2 228 88875 3

Vigato, J.‐C., L‘Architecture Régionalize. France 1890–1950 (Norma, 1994), 392pp., 160F., ISBN 2 9092832 11 9

Wagstaff, P., ed., Regionalism in Europe (Intellect, 1994), 120pp., £14.95, ISBN 1 871516 84 6

Walker, D.H., Outrage and Insight: Modern French Writers and the ’Fait Divers’ (Berg, 1995), 281pp., £39.95, ISBN 0 85946 780 X

Wilson, H.S., African Decolonisation (Edward Arnold, 1994), 222pp., £12.99, ISBN 0 340 55929 2     

The social selectivity of migration flows affecting Britain's larger conurbations: An analysis of the 1991 census regional migration tables

Little is known about the social composition of migration affecting British cities, despite the currently high political salience of this issue. This is principally because of the very limited availability of reliable city‐scale data on such migrant characteristics as occupation and income. This paper uses the Regional Migration Tables from the 1991 Census to document the migration of labour force members to and from Britain's larger conurbations, distinguishing six main Social Groups defined on the basis of occupation. It is found that all eight areas were net losers of economically active people, that all six Social Groups were generally contributing to these net losses and that, in every case except London, there was a strong positive relationship between social status and the rate of net out‐migration to the rest of Britain. This latter case suggests the need for further work, which would benefit from the more detailed migration datasets that are promised from the 2001 Census.     

Starch granules,dental calculus and new perspectives on ancient diet

Recent work in various parts of the world has suggested the possibility of ancient starch granules surviving and adhering to archaeological artefacts. Often this information is used to infer aspects of diet. One additional source for recovery of archaeological starch granules is dental calculus. The presence of plant food debris in dental calculus is well known but has not been not widely investigated using archaeological material. The extraction of starch granules from dental calculus represents a direct link to the consumption of starchy food by humans or animals. Using dental calculus also sidesteps many other questions still inherent in using starch granules to reconstruct aspects of ancient diet, such as the effects of diagenesis on their morphology; as the starches are trapped inside a concreted matrix they are less likely to alter over time. We used amylase digestion by a starch-specific enzyme to confirm the material as starch.