The calm before the storm: A punctuated equilibrium theory of international politics

Research has shown that policymaking in numerous domestic policies, across a multitude of polities, systematically produces a pattern of change that matches Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), characterized by many incremental and occasional dramatic changes. The field of International Relations (IR), however, has paid surprisingly little attention to PET, even though the same pattern of change is also found in international politics. This study attempts to fill this gap and explains stability and change in international politics based on PET. Specifically, we detail the dynamics behind this pattern of behavior, both at the domestic and the international level, as well as their interplay. The empirical section shows that different indicators of international politics, including troop deployments, foreign aid and international trade, follow a leptokurtic pattern of change, which characterizes Punctuated Equilibrium, and whereby changes in countries' behavior are generally incremental, representing periods of relative stability, and punctuated by large changes that dramatically overthrow existing policies. Moreover, our results indicate that policy outputs where greater friction is at play are more punctuated than those policies that cannot as easily or directly be managed. This study urges future research to further explore the dynamics of stability and change at the aggregate, international level.     

Infrared radiofluorescence (IR-RF) dating of middle pleistocene fluvial archives of the Heidelberg Basin (Southwest Germany)

The infrared radiofluorescence (IR-RF) dating technique was applied to eight fluvial samples that were collected from two sediment cores at the Heidelberg Basin located near Viernheim and Ludwigshafen in southwest Germany. Based on the IR-RF derived ages of the samples it was possible to establish a chronological framework for the Mid-Pleistocene fluvial deposits of the Heidelberg Basin. The results allow us to distinguish between four main periods of aggradation. The lowermost sample taken from 100 m core depth lead to an IR-RF age of 643 ± 28 ka pointing to a Cromerian period of aggradation (OIS 17–16). For the Elsterian it is now possible to distinguish between two aggradation periods, one occurring during the Lower Elsterian period (OIS 15) and a second during the Upper Elsterian period (OIS 12–11). For the so called Upper interlayer (or “Oberer Zwischenhorizont” — a layer of organic-rich and finer-grained deposits), the IR-RF results point to a deposition age of around 300 ka, with samples taken directly on top and out of this layer yielding IR-RF ages of 288 ± 19 ka and 302 ± 19 ka, respectively. Hence, the measured IR-RF ages clearly point to a deposition during the Lower Saalian period (OIS 9–8) whereas earlier studies assumed a Cromerian age for the sediments of the Upper Interlayer based on pollen records and also mollusc fauna. The new IR-RF dataset indicates that significant hiatuses are present within the fluvial sediment successions. In particular the Eemian and Upper Saalian deposits are missing in this part of the northern Upper Rhine Graben, as the 300 ka deposits are directly overlain by Weichselian fluvial sediments. It is obvious that time periods of increased fluvial aggradation were interrupted by time periods of almost no aggradation or erosion which should have been mainly triggered by phases of increased and decreased subsidence of the Heidelberg Basin.     

Agamben in the Ogaden: Violence and sovereignty in the Ethiopian–Somali frontier

This paper asks what makes the periphery or the frontier a prime locus of the “inclusionary exclusion” that is, according to Giorgio Agamben, so constitutive of the state of exception. By applying Agamben’s analytics to the Ogaden – a frontier province of the Ethiopian state – we propose an interpretation of the political history of the Ethiopian Ogaden as a recurrent government by exception that spans the Imperial rule (c. 1890–1974), the socialist dictatorship of the Derg (1974–1991), and the current revolutionary democratic regime led by the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (1991–today). Drawing attention to the historical continuities in the exercise of (Ethiopian) state sovereignty in its (Somali) frontier, we offer a genealogy of the violent incorporation of the Ogaden into the Ethiopian body politic. We identify recurring practices of sovereign power by successive Ethiopian regimes that are constitutive of the state of exception, namely a conflation between law and lawlessness, the politics of bare life and an encampment strategy. By doing so, this paper insists on the constitutive importance of land appropriation – Carl Schmitt’s Landnahme – in performances of sovereignty and territorialization at the margins of the postcolonial state.     

A Defense Renaissance? The Canadian Conservative Government and the Military

Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper campaigned in 2006 that, if elected, his government would make major improvements to Canada’s military. Emphasizing the decline that had befallen the once proud institution under the Liberals, Harper spoke of the spending increases and new capabilities that would result if his party emerged victorious in the upcoming vote. Seven years later, and two years after the prime minister was finally rewarded with a majority government, it seems like an opportune time to examine the Harper defense record. The article will show that defense spending has increased and a string of new equipment projects have been announced. However, the article will also reveal that the spending increases are almost certainly over, while few of the capital programs are actually progressing. Thus, the Harper defense record is ambiguous, and does not constitute the dramatic change that was promised.     

A Matter of Foreign Policy: 'Final Solution' and 'Final Victory' in Nazi Germany

The primacy of foreign policy in Nazi Germany has been debatedfor decades. This article seeks not to re-open an old debate,but focuses on the two big aims of Nazi policy: ‘FinalVictory’ and ‘Final Solution’. In order toanalyse their relationship, they are identified as war aims;there follows an examination of both the role of the war inNazi doctrine and Hitler's role in decision-making in general.It can be shown that Hitler's original war plan saw ‘FinalVictory’ as a prerequisite for the ‘Final Solution’,but that from August 1941 the implementation of the ‘FinalSolution’ followed the intention of achieving ‘FinalVictory’ through the extermination of the European Jews.‘Final Victory’ and the ‘Final Solution’thus appear as goals which illuminate the primacy of foreignpolicy in Nazi Germany.