Analyzing the Relationship Between Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease at the Small Area Level: A Bayesian Approach to Spatial Modeling

We model the relationship between coronary heart disease and smoking prevalence and deprivation at the small area level using the Poisson log-linear model with and without random effects. Extra-Poisson variability (overdispersion) is handled through the addition of spatially structured and unstructured random effects in a Bayesian framework. In addition, four different measures of smoking prevalence are assessed because the smoking data are obtained from a survey that resulted in quite large differences in the size of the sample across the census tracts. Two of the methods use Bayes adjustments of standardized smoking ratios (local and global adjustments), and one uses a nonparametric spatial averaging technique. A preferred model is identified based on the deviance information criterion. Both smoking and deprivation are found to be statistically significant risk factors, but the effect of the smoking variable is reduced once the confounding effects of deprivation are taken into account. Maps of the spatial variability in relative risk, and the importance of the underlying covariates and random effects terms, are produced. We also identify areas with excess relative risk.     

Post‐conflict Heritage and Tourism in Cambodia: The Burden of Angkor

The World Heritage Site of Angkor is enduring one of the most crucial, turbulent periods in its 1200‐year history. Since the early 1990s over 20 countries have contributed millions of dollars to help safeguard and restore its temples. As one of Southeast Asia’s premier destinations, Angkor has also seen a 10,000% growth in international tourist arrivals in just over a decade. The challenges arising from the intense convergence of these two paradoxical and unstable agendas—heritage conservation and tourism development—are greatly compounded by Cambodia’s need to recover from war and turmoil. This paper explores the critical trends that have surfaced at Angkor and why the challenges posed by surging tourism have been inadequately addressed. It argues Angkor’s dominant role within Cambodia’s post‐conflict heritage and tourism industries requires closer, more critical attention given recent events in the country. This article is the summary of Winter's book Post‐conflict Heritage, Post‐colonial Tourism (Routledge 2007).