Exposing Unobserved Spatial Similarity: Evidence from German School Choice Data

In a spatial context, flexible substitution patterns play an important role when modeling individual choice behavior. Issues of correlation may arise if two or more alternatives of a selected choice set share characteristics that cannot be observed by a modeler. Multivariate extreme value (MEV) models provide the possibility to relax the property of constant substitution imposed by the multinomial logit (MNL) model through its independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. Existing approaches in school network planning often do not account for substitution patterns, nor do they take free school choice into consideration. In this article, we briefly operationalize a closed‐form discrete choice model (generalized nested logit [GNL] model) from utility maximization to account for spatial correlation. Moreover, we show that very simple and restrictive models are usually not adequate in a spatial choice context. In contrast, the GNL is still computationally convenient and obtains a very flexible structure of substitution patterns among choice alternatives. Roughly speaking, this flexibility is achieved by allocating alternatives that are located close to each other into nests. A given alternative may belong to several nests. Therefore, we specify a more general discrete choice model. Furthermore, the data and the model specification for the school choice problem are presented. The analysis of free school choice in the city of Dresden, Germany, confirms the influence of most of the exogenous variables reported in the literature. The estimation results generally indicate the applicability of MEV models in a spatial context and the importance of spatial correlation in school choice modeling. Therefore, we suggest the use of more flexible and complex models than standard logit models in particular. En un contexto espacial, los patrones sustitución flexible juegan un papel importante en el modelamiento del comportamiento de las decisiones individuales. Varios problemas de correlación pueden presentarse si dos o más alternativas de elección comparten características no observables por el modelador. Los modelos de valor extremo (multivariate extreme value‐MEV) ofrecen la posibilidad de relajar la propiedad de sustitución constante (constant substitution) presente en los modelos logit multinomiales (multinomial logit‐MNL), a través de su propiedad de independencia de alternativas irrelevantes (Independence of irrelevant alternatives property ‐IIA). A menudo, los enfoques existentes en la planificación de redes escolares no toman en consideración los patrones de sustitución y de libre elección de escuela. En este artículo, los autores presentan brevemente el funcionamiento de un modelo de elección discreta (discrete choice model) para la maximización de utilidad o modelo logit anidado generalizado (generalized nested logit model‐GNL) para dar cuenta de la autocorrelación espacial. Los autores sostienen que modelos demasiado simples y restrictivos no suelen ser adecuados en un contexto de elección espacial. En contraste el modelo GNL es conveniente en términos de su computación y obtiene una estructura muy flexible de los patrones de sustitución entre las alternativas de elección. En términos generales, esta flexibilidad se logra mediante la asignación (o anidación) de las alternativas cercanas en el espacio (una alternativa puede pertenecer a varios nidos). Por lo tanto, los autores presentan un modelo de elección discreta más general. El estudio presenta además datos y la especificación del modelo para un caso de elección de escuela concreto: el análisis de libre elección de escuela en la ciudad de Dresden, Alemania. El análisis confirma la influencia de la mayoría de las variables exógenas presentes en la literatura. Los resultados de la estimación demuestran en términos generales la aplicabilidad de los modelos MEV en un contexto espacial y la importancia de la autocorrelación espacial en el modelado de elección de escuela. Los autores concluyen sugiriendo el uso de modelos más flexibles y complejos que los modelos utilizados habitualmente, en particular los modelos logit estándar. 从空间视角看,灵活的替代模式在个人行为选择建模中发挥着重要作用。当存在两个或两个以上备选方案集具有共性且无法被建模者观察到时,就可能出现相关性问题。多元极值模型（MEV）通过不相关的替代属性（IIA）实现了对多元logit模型（MNL）中常数限制的松弛替代。现有校园网络规划方法通常无法解释替代模式,而且没有考虑到自由择校因素。本文简要地建立一个封闭离散选择模型（广义嵌套（GNL）模型）,从效用最大化角度来解释空间相关性。此外分析还表明,非常简单的约束模型通常不具有足够的空间选择情境。相比之下,GNL模型计算便捷,且可以在各选择方案中获得非常灵活的替代模式。大致而言,这种灵活性大体是通过与住处位置距离上彼此靠近的替代选择分配而获得,一个给定的选择可能属于不同的住处。因此,我们给出了一个更一般的离散选择模型。此外,还给出了针对择校问题的数据和模型设定。基于德国德累斯顿市自由择校分析,证实了已有研究中多数外生变量的影响。估计结果证实了MEV模型在空间分析中的适用性以及择校模型中空间相关的重要性,并建议使用更加灵活和复杂的模型而不是标准的logit模型。     

Re-thinking festivals: a comparative study of the integration/marginalization of arts festivals in the urban regimes of Manchester,Copenhagen and Vienna

Arts festivals have been on the ascendant since the 1980s. However, while these are proliferating, it remains unclear as to whether they are also flourishing. The present narrow construction of festivals for marketing and economic purposes tends to disregard the festivals’ social and cultural potential, i.e. in terms of functioning as urban laboratories where new and alternative urban and cultural strategies can be tested and developed. In order to address these imbalanced conceptualizations of arts festivals within urban policy frameworks, the article is based on a comparative case study of festivals that try to function as urban laboratories. By examining how these festivals are integrated in or marginalized by the urban regime, and how this influences their operational conditions, the research elucidates the need to create new and more holistic policy frameworks to chart an equitable path for the future development of arts festivals.     

The development of the agrarian landscape on gotland during the early iron age

The author discusses the investigations on prehistoric agrarian landscape recently started on the island of Gotland. Main attention is focused on traces of deserted (fossilised) fields. Systematic reconnaissance in 1972–73 all over the island has brought forth a quite new material with ‘Celtic fields’ of a very great size and regional extent. The reconnaissance and regional mapping are mainly carried out by aerial photography.

Through the field work, which started in 1973 at Uggårde‐Vinarve in Rone parish, it has been possible to demonstrate a continuous field system to a total extent of about 130 hectares (325 acres). This field pattern is superimposed by a new agrarian landscape structure with building remains and stone wall fencing systems as the dominating features. The two stratigraphically separated structures of agrarian landscape put into an agrarian economic context indicate a development from extensive farming with long fallow periods to intensive farming with established land‐use (arable, meadow, and grazing) on smaller areas than formerly. A rough dating of the two structures gives 500 — 100 B. C. and 100 B. C. ‐ A. D. 500 respectively.

The investigations carried on by geographers and archaeologists in collaboration with Quaternary geologists are included in a research project by the Swedish Council for Social Science Research.     

THE GROWTH OF LITERACY IN FRANCE DURING THE EIGHTEENTH AND NINETEENTH CENTURIES

ABSTRACT

The Ottoman Empire faced catastrophic events during its period of dissolution which started with the First World War. At the end of this war, the Ottoman lands were shared by the Allied forces. As a reaction to this occupation, the Turkish War of Independence started in 1919 and finished in 1923. The authors aim to examine how these events were reflected in the ?stanbul bourse, using Ottoman government bond prices data between 1918 and 1925. Econometric methodology of Carla Inclan and George Tiao (1994 Inclan, C., and G. Tiao. 1994. Use of the cumulative sums of squares for retrospective detection of changes of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89:913–23.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) identifies several break points, which imply a lower risk for the repayment of the bonds during the end of the First World War and the Turkish War of Independence.     

792 or 793? Charlemagne’s canal project: craft,nature and memory

In autumn 793, Charlemagne visited the fossatum magnum (the ‘big ditch’ or canal) between the Rhine and Danube. Excavations, dendrochronology and a re‐reading of Carolingian Annals shed new light on the chronology and setting of this canal, which was planned in 792, initiated in 793, and abandoned later that year. The abandonment is attested by both written and archaeological evidence. The different versions of the annals offer a unique opportunity for comparison with the archaeological record. Evidence that works of Vitruvius circulated in the Carolingian court suggests that Charlemagne’s advisers were drawing on classical tradition when they pitched the idea of digging the canal.     

Integrated Visions (Part II): Envisioning Sustainable Energy Landscapes

Climate change and resource depletion are driving the transition to renewable energy sources. Both the supply of renewables and the demand for energy are influenced by the physical environment and therefore concern spatial planning and landscape design. Envisioning the long-term development of alternative energy landscapes – that is sustainable energy landscapes – present spatial planners and landscape architects with new challenges. The first paper of this two-part series discussed several existing approaches to long-term regional planning and landscape design, and presented an alternative, five-step approach for the composition of integrated visions [Stremke, S., Kann, F. Van & Koh, J. (2012) Integrated Visions (part I): Methodological Framework, European Planning Studies, [20(2), pp. 305–320]. This paper illustrates how the five-step approach was employed to compose a set of integrated visions for the development of sustainable energy landscapes in south of the Netherlands. The proposed five-step approach is then examined with respect to a set of criteria stressed in the planning and design literature.