Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

A leper in purple: the coronation of Baldwin IV of Jerusalem

Baldwin IV, the leper king of Jerusalem, was one of history's more startling monarchs. His coronation in 1174 has been interpreted as anomalous or, alternatively, as evidence of unique cultural and political trends within the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem. Inherent in all these evaluations, however, is the unquestioned acceptance that Baldwin was known to be leprous at the time of his coronation. This is an assumption that is supported by neither medical understandings of the disease, nor by a consideration of the evidence that survives from the period. Though clearly suffering from advanced leprosy at the time of his death, there is nothing to suggest that Baldwin's disease could have been diagnosed prior to his taking the throne and so there is no need to consider his coronation as anything other than a conventional one.     

COINTEGRATION BETWEEN U.S. WHEAT MARKETS

ABSTRACT. Average monthly price data from twelve hinterland markets and the Houston port price for wheat are studied in a cointegration framework using the Engle-Granger "two-step" procedure and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. Out-of-sample forecasts from an error correction model are compared to those from a vector autoregression fit to levels and a univariate autoregression fit to first differences. This comparison suggests that modeling these (cointegrated) data as a levels vector autoregression, rather than as an error-correction process, results in significantly higher error bias, but lower error variance, at long horizons.     

Settlement and social change in central Europe, 3500–1500 BC

The chronology of the period is briefly considered in the light of the dendrochronological results which have appeared in recent years. Patterns of settlement history in different parts of the area are then examined, and it is suggested that in some of them the late fourth millennium was a period of population decline which was not reversed until the Early Bronze Age, 1000 years later. Detailed information about specific local occupation patterns is provided by recent work on the circum-Alpine lake villages. Changes in cultural patterns during the period, especially the appearance of the Corded Ware, are discussed and explanations of them reviewed. It is argued that changing patterns of gender relations were a major feature of the period, linked to processes which eventually led to the development of small-scale chiefdoms. The development of copper and bronze metallurgy and its connection to these processes are discussed.     

Sapwood estimates in the interpretation of tree-ring dates

Many timber finds lack some or all of the outer, sapwood rings formed in the years just before felling. In order to estimate felling date once the outermost remaining ring has been dated, it is necessary to estimate the number of sapwood rings originally present. Methods doing this for oak are reviewed in the light of an intensive study of living trees at one site and an extensive study of 175 samples from living trees in North Wales and northwest England. Some methods reported in the literature are found to be invalid. A method reported by Hollstein (1965) is most reliable, with modifications for known variations in sapwood number with position in the tree. At present the best available estimate is that a value of 30 sapwood rings be used (95% confidence limits: 19–50).     

The Policy Analysis of Water Shortages

Allen V. Kneese and F. Lee Brown, The Southwest Under Stress .
Richard A. Berk, et al., Water Shortage .     

Two flags in the sand: anti-Communism in early Cold War Northern Ireland

ABSTRACT

This article reveals how the Cold War impinged upon not just national, but local political considerations and became woven into communal narratives. It contributes to the examination of religion in the conflict, adds to the historiography of Britain and the Cold War, and provides a context by which British Cold War experience and responses can be assessed. With Northern Ireland’s political similarities to Great Britain, its consistency with European norms and its overlaps with popular sentiment in the United States, Northern Ireland offers a gauge to better understand the nature of anti-Communism in the Cold War’s first decade and offers an unexplored perspective on the conflict.