Sustainable development and climate change

In 1987, the authors of Our common future argued that unless the world embraced and operationalized sustainable development, it would risk being overwhelmed by a series of interlocking crises related to population growth, urbanization, poverty and environmental degradation. Since then, many authors have argued that the world is on a worst case scenario trajectory. Post‐Rio assessments of progress towards sustainable development have been largely negative. Since 1987, climate change has added a new stressor to the mix while shortening the time frame for transformation. In the context of accelerating change and converging stresses is the concept of sustainable development as compelling today as it was twenty years ago? Is it reasonable to believe there are means by which to reduce poverty and simultaneously protect the environment? This article briefly reviews the global challenges that first stimulated the concept of sustainable development and asks how contemporary processes of global change are affecting both these challenges and this approach to addressing them. While there are some grounds for optimism, several variables are identified that make sustainable development increasingly difficult to design and implement. The article concludes with an evaluation of how these difficulties might be overcome, and why it is essential that we try.     

VERTICAL INDUSTRY RELATIONS,SPILLOVERS, AND PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM CHILEAN PLANTS*

ABSTRACT We use disaggregated data on Chilean plants, and the Chilean input–output table to examine the impact of agglomeration spillovers on total factor productivity (TFP). In common with previous studies, we find evidence for intraindustry spillovers, but none for general cross‐industry spillovers. This picture changes when we take vertical industry relations into account. There are important productivity spillovers from plants in upstream industries. Interestingly, a similar effect cannot be found from plants in downstream industries. The number of plants in these sectors has no effect on plant‐level TFP, just as the number of plants in other industries that are neither important upstream suppliers nor downstream customers also has no effect.     

Reclip:more Kleinr?umige Klimaszenarien für ?sterreich

Der letzte Bericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) erl?utert die weltweiten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels deutlich – allerdings aus globaler Sicht. Um zu kl?ren wie sich das regionale Klima in ?sterreich ver?ndern wird, wurde mit dem Projekt „reclip:more“ (Research for Climate Protection: Model Run Evaluation) eine erste kleinr?umige Datenbasis für Klimaschutz und Klimafolgenforschung für ?sterreich generiert. Klimaszenarien wurden mittels regionaler Klimamodelle (RCMs) für die Alpen als 10 × 10-Kilometer-Raster und mit anschlie?endem Downscaling für ?sterreich mit einer Zielaufl?sung 1 km entwickelt. Die RCMs wurden mit ERA-40 Reanalyse-Daten der Vergangenheit und Daten eines Zukunftsszenarios des globalen Klimamodells (GCM) ECHAM5 angetrieben, um retrospektive (1981 bis 1990) und künftige (2041 bis 2050) Klimadatens?tze für die Alpen zu berechnen und M?glichkeiten und Unsicherheiten der Modelle und Downscaling-Methoden für die Alpen zu evaluieren. Die nun vorliegenden Datens?tze und weitere, die im Folgeprojekt „reclip:century“ für alternative Treibhausgasszenarien bis 2100 berechnet werden, dienen dazu als Basis für Aussagen über ?kologische und sozio?konomische Entwicklungen im Hinblick auf den Klimawandel.     

"The Problem of Spatial Autocorrelation" and Local Spatial Statistics

This article examines the relationship between spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity, two properties unique to spatial data. The property of spatial dependence has led to a large body of research into spatial autocorrelation and also, largely independently, into geostatistics. The property of spatial heterogeneity has led to a growing awareness of the limitation of global statistics and the value of local statistics and local statistical models. The article concludes with a discussion of how the two properties can be accommodated within the same modelling framework.     

The Kilosa Killings: Political Ecology of a Farmer–Herder Conflict in Tanzania

Farmer–herder conflicts in Africa are often presented as being driven by ‘environmental scarcity’. Political ecologists, however, argue that these conflicts should be analysed within a broader historical and policy context. This article presents a case study of a local conflict in the Kilosa District in Tanzania that tragically culminated in the killing of thirty‐eight farmers on 8 December 2000. To understand the conflict, the authors argue that it is necessary to study the history of villagization and land use in the District, as well as national land tenure and pastoral policies. Attempts at agricultural modernization have fostered an anti‐pastoral environment in Tanzania. The government aim is to confine livestock keeping to ‘pastoral villages’, but these villages lack sufficient pastures and water supplies, leading herders to search for such resources elsewhere. Pastoral access to wetlands is decreasing due to expansion of cultivated areas and the promotion of agriculture. The main tool that pastoralists still possess to counteract this trend is their ability to bribe officials. But corruption further undermines people's trust in authorities and in the willingness of these authorities to prevent conflicts. This leads actors to try to solve problems through other means, notably violence.     

The Eulau eulogy: Bioarchaeological interpretation of lethal violence in Corded Ware multiple burials from Saxony-Anhalt, Germany

The Corded Ware is one of the major archaeological traditions of Late Neolithic Europe. Its burial customs are characterized by single graves but multiple burials also occur. We present a detailed study of antemortem and perimortem trauma in a group of Corded Ware skeletons from four multiple graves and give the most probable interpretation of the site, based upon all available bioarchaeological evidence. The pattern of observed injuries in male, female, and subadult skeletons, including cranial trauma, arrow wounds, and fractures of the forearm and hands points towards a violent event that resulted in the death of all individuals, most probably a raid. In contrast to comparable Neolithic raid sites, there was no complete extermination of the local population and no use of mass graves. The burials have been arranged with care and detailed knowledge about biological kinship ties [Haak, W., Brandt, G., de Jong, H.N., Meyer, C., Ganslmeier, R., Heyd, V., Hawkesworth, C., Pike, A.W.G., Meller, H., Alt, K.W., 2008. Ancient DNA, strontium isotopes, and osteological analyses shed light on social and kinship organization of the Later Stone Age. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105, 18226–18231]. The combination of clear causes of death and the proven biological relationships among some of the individuals, including a nuclear family, provides new and important insights into Corded Ware mortuary customs and the reasons why and how multiple graves have been utilised.     

Storm flooding,coastal defence and land use around the Thames estuary and tidal river c.1250–1450

Climatic deterioration in the later middle ages was associated with an increasing frequency of marine storm surges affecting the coasts of the southern North Sea. This paper investigates the impact of storm surges upon the lands bordering the Thames estuary and tidal river between the mid-thirteenth and mid-fifteenth centuries. Land use in the coastal and riverine marshes is reviewed, and the means and costs of defence against marine flooding explored. The impact of flooding upon human use of the marshlands, upon the suburbs of medieval London and upon the Thames fisheries are all investigated. Stress is placed upon the complex interaction of economic and environmental factors in determining the response to the threat of marine flooding.