Critical Issues on Probabilistic Earthquake Loss Assessment

Probabilistic loss modeling can be used to develop risk reduction measures, such as the identification of regions more prone to human and economic losses, or to develop financial mechanisms to transfer the earthquake risk from local governments to the private sector. This study addresses several critical issues in probabilistic loss modeling, and provides recommendations depending on the intended final use of the risk results. Modeling issues related to convergence in probabilistic event-based analysis; consideration of epistemic uncertainties within a logic tree; generation of different types of loss exceedance curves; and derivation of risk maps are thoroughly investigated. The Metropolitan Area of Lisbon is used to explore these issues, and it is demonstrated that different assumptions in the loss modeling process can lead to considerably different risk results. Furthermore, the findings and recommendations of this study are also relevant for institutions that promote the assessment of earthquake hazard and risk, such as the Global Earthquake Model Foundation.     

Estimating age by tooth wear of prehistoric human remains in Brazilian archaeological sites

The occlusal surfaces of 298 permanent maxillary and mandibular molar teeth of prehistoric shellfish‐gatherer subjects from the Piaçaguera and Tenorio sites (4930 to 1875 BP), near the central‐northern coastline of São Paulo, Brazil, were examined for classification of macro‐wear stages. Molar tooth wear is an indication of masticatory activity and can be used in the estimation of age at death. The examination of visual and schematic aspects of occlusal macro‐wear used a visual chart proposed by Brothwell, which includes the three superior and inferior, left and right, permanent molars. Three examiners performed the macroscopic observations twice under the same conditions. The resulting age estimates were compared with previous information of age estimated by skeletal examination. A reduced intra‐ and inter‐observer variation was observed; all re‐examinations indicated discrepancies of less than two years for the upper and lower limit of the age range estimates. The procedure was also considered consistent with the skeletal method used for age estimation of human remains excavated in Brazilian archaeological shell mounds, with a discrepancy of less than 8.22 years between the upper and lower limits of estimates by both methods. Age classification by the occlusal molar wear may be a useful tool for the classification of archaeological findings, mainly when only fragmentary skeletal remains are excavated. The current results indicate that the application of the Brothwell chart for Brazilian archaeological series presented satisfactory results of consistency, and its expanded use may represent a relevant adjunct for research. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Smelting and recycling evidences from the Late Bronze Age habitat site of Baiões (Viseu,Portugal)

Many aspects of bronze production during Late Bronze Age in Western Europe are so far unknown. In the present study selected artefact fragments and metallurgical debris, which include a slag fragment, from the emblematic Late Bronze Age habitat site of Castro da Senhora da Guia de Baiões (Viseu, Portugal) have been studied by optical microscopy, micro-EDXRF, SEM–EDS and XRD. Evidences were found for bronze production involving smelting and recycling. Compositional analysis showed that the artefacts are made of a bronze with 13 ± 3 wt.% Sn (average and one standard deviation) and a low impurity pattern, namely <0.1 wt.% Pb, being comparable with the composition of other bronzes from the same region (the Central Portuguese Beiras). This alloy is generally different from elsewhere Atlantic and Mediterranean bronzes, which show frequently slightly lower Sn contents and higher impurity patterns, namely Pb which is often present as an alloying element. The present study gives further support to early proposals suggesting the exploration of the Western Iberian tin resources during Late Bronze Age, and besides that, it indicates that metalworking and smelting could have been a commonplace activity requiring no specific facilities, being bronze produced at a domestic scale in this Western extreme of Europe.     

Cultural Theory and the Measurement of Deep Core Beliefs Within the Advocacy Coalition Framework

Deep core beliefs represent an important yet theoretically underspecified concept within the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF). This underspecification can (in part) be attributed to the ad hoc way in which ACF scholars have defined and measured the concept over time. To overcome this, we advocate the development and future use of a standardized metric for measuring deep core beliefs in ACF studies. Such a measure, we contend, should be multidimensional, generalizable, measurable using multiple techniques, and broad enough in scope to operate across virtually all policy domains. Using these criteria as our benchmark, we evaluate the viability of cultural theory (CT) as one such metric. In short, we find that CT meets all of these criteria, and therefore provides ACF scholars with a way to measure deep core beliefs across enduring public policy disputes that are demarcated by conflicting belief systems. Accordingly, we advocate its use in future studies.     

Iberian seventh-born children,werewolves, and the dragon slayer: A case study in the comparative interpretation of symbolic praxis and fairytales

This article examines an obscure custom found in Iberian ethnography: that of having one's eldest children serve as godparents for their own youngest siblings, starting with the seventh. The paper's main working hypothesis is that this custom is to be understood in the context of underlying conceptions that fairytales convey in a symbolical guise. The argument highlights the relationship of examined notions with the “Dragon Slayer” theme, to bring out stable themata concerning ontological complexity and metamorphosis, in the light of which the Iberian custom is interpreted.     

The two opposing impacts of heritage making on local communities: residents’ perceptions: a Portuguese case

This article examines the impact associated with the making of heritage and tourism at a destination. Special attention is paid to the residents’ perceptions of the impact. The examination is focused on the rural village of Sortelha, in Portugal, where, in recent decades, a state-led programme was implemented in order to renovate the historic buildings and built fabric and to generate benefits for the local community. Based on ethnographic materials collected in 2003, 2009 and 2013, the study demonstrates that the making of heritage may give rise to two opposing impacts simultaneously – increased social cohesion and place pride, on the one hand, and envy and competition (and, hence, social atomisation), on the other hand – and that residents are entirely cognisant of the tension between the two. The study has the potential to contribute to both the theoretical and the applied literature on heritage making.