Middle power strategic choices and horizontal security cooperation: the 2009 Australia-South Korea security cooperation agreement

ABSTRACT

This article examines why Asia-Pacific middle powers cooperate with each other on security issues. The article challenges the assumption that middle powers are primarily influenced by great-power structural factors in their security relations with each other. It argues that the dominant structural explanations of security cooperation between secondary states—balancing against the rise of China, responding to burden-sharing pressure from the United States, or hedging during a period of great power transition—have not been sufficiently tested. Using the 2009 Australia-South Korea security cooperation agreement as a representative example of middle power security cooperation, it finds that inter-personal leadership preferences played a key intervening role in filtering existing structural incentives into actual policy cooperation. It shows how congruence in leadership preferences shapes when and with whom middle powers are likely to cooperate on security issues. The article opens up the research agenda on middle powers by examining how they approach security relations in bilateral and horizontal contexts with each other.     

PREDICTING LUNAR ECLIPSES IN NORTHERN LATITUDES BY NAKED EYE OBSERVATION

We investigate methods which may have been found appropriate for predicting lunar eclipses in northern Europe, where naked-eye astronomy has to be adapted to conditions, which are different from those found at lower latitudes and in places with less cloud cover. The ecliptic is lower in the sky, and transient phenomena cannot reliably be observed under these astronomical viewing conditions. We consider those techniques, which only require the use of objects made of wood, stone and soil, which use no written records, and which require no understanding of celestial mechanics. We show that it should have been possible to answer the question ‘Is there going to be a lunar eclipse, either tonight or tomorrow night?‘ with surprising accuracy. We include an analysis of the nature of some of the artefacts, which may have been helpful in doing so.