INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES TO A LEBANESE VILLAGE

Remittances are an important source of income for many labour-exporting Third World countries, especially for rural communities. Based on a theoretical framework developed by Lucas and Stark (1985) and Stark and Lucas (1988), a number of hypotheses concerning remittances from foreign emigrants are developed and tested using questionnaire survey data from Lala, a Lebanese village. According to the theory, a rural family engages in an implicit insurance-type contract with the potential migrant because both are averse to risk. A family interested in adopting new but risky agricultural technology invests in the emigration of one of its members and insures him or her against possibilities of unemployment or other uncertainties. Once established abroad, the migrant is expected to reciprocate by remitting, and thus insuring the family against unforeseen agricultural adversities. An emigrant is deterred from defaulting on the implicit contract because of a desire to inherit the parent's wealth and a need to maintain contacts with residual family members who help to administer and oversee a migrant's investment in the village, to maintain a sibling's reputation, and thus facilitate his or her return and reintegration into the community. Results from testing the hypotheses are somewhat consistent with the proposition that, after a period of adjustment, migrants do begin to remit, thereby providing their families with an insurance against the uncertainties of life in the country of origin. However, the level of remittances does not appear to depend on the potential to inherit from a family's wealth. Moreover, families do not seem to invest in their migrants so as to improve their farm lands and to undertake risky agricultural techniques. The long-term remittance commitment of migrants to their residual families suggests that migrants’ altruism may be a more significant motivating factor than self-interest. ?envoi ?argent par des émigrants dans leur pays ?origine est une importante source de revenu pour plusieurs pays exportateurs de main-?oeuvre du Tiers Monde, spéialement pour les communautes rurales. Basées sur un concept théorique développé par Lucas et Stark (1 985) et Stark et Lucas (1988), plusieurs hypothèses au sujet de ?envoi ?argentpar des émigrants à?étranger sont développées et testées en utilisant les données ?un questionnaire soumis à Lala, un village libanais. Selon cette théorie, une famille de milieu rural s'engage avec un éventuel migrant dans un contrat implicite de type assurance pour minimiser les risques des deux parties. Une famille intéressée à adopter une nouvelle technique agricole pleine de risque investit dans ?émigration ?un de ses membres et ?assure contre les possibilités de chomage et contre ?autres incertitudes. Une fois ?immigrant établi à?étranger, il se sentira obligé de leur rendre la pareille en leur faisant parvenir de ?argent pour les garantir contre des événements agricoles imprévisibles. ?émigrant est dissuadé de manquer à ses engagements à cause de son desir ?hériter de la fortune de ses parents et du besoin de garder contact avec la famille restante qui ?aidera à administrer ses investissements dans son village, et à maintenir sa réputation au sein de sa famille, facilitant ainsi son retour et sa réinsertion dans la communauté. Les résultats du test des hypothèses sont plutǒt compatibles avec la proposition qu'après une période ?ajustement, les migrants cornmencent à envoyer de ?argent dans leur pays ?origine, ce qui fournit à leur famille une assurance contre les incertitudes de la vie dans le pays ?origine. Par contre, le niveau ?envoi ?argent ne sernble pas dépendre des possibilités ?hériter. De plus, les farnilles ne sernblent pas investir dans le migrant dans le but ?arnéliorer leurs terres agricoles et ?acquérir des techniques agricoles risquées. ?engagement à long terme des émigrants à leurfarnille au pays ?origine suggère que ?altruisme est peut-ětre un facteur plus rnotivant que ?intéret personnel.     

A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF FARM OUTPUT IN SELECTED LAND-REFORM AREAS OF JAMAICA

The claim of many that certain features of Jamaican land reform discourage optimum increases in farm output has been pointed out. To test the argument, seven land-reform features, which meet methodological, theoretical, and practical restrictions, have been examined. An hypothesis derived mainly from agricultural- economic theory about the linear relation between each of the seven features and farm output per acre has been devised. The hypotheses have been tested with a multiple regression analysis of data from six land settlements selected to represent a variety of geographic settings. The hypotheses have been partially upheld, but must be revised in the following form: (1) in many cases, particularly in the early years of production, farm acreage is negatively related to output per acre; (2) in subsistence areas, where great diversity in agriculture is common, greater diversification leads to greater output per acre; (3) in most cases where farmers live an appreciable distance from their holdings (at least 0.3 miles), output per acre is negatively related to the distance; (4) output per acre declines as the age of operator increases, but only if the operator is mainly dependent on his own labour, and only after a relatively advanced age (60 years, perhaps) has been attained; (5) the number of a farmer's dependents does not affect output (gross income per acre); (6) a farmer's non-farm income does not exhibit a negative relation to output per acre, and may be positively related if the outside income can be used to purchase productive farm inputs; (7) in some cases acreage of additional land used is positively related to output per acre on settlement properties. Hopefully, further research will lead to a more rational basis for the formulation of these hypotheses. Using the regression equations, estimates have been made of the changes in output per acre which could have been achieved with feasible changes in relevant factors. Estimates indicate that current farm output could have been greatly increased in some settlements, thus justifying some of the criticism of Jamaican land reform.     

A regional comparison of the implications of climate change for the golf industry in Canada

Golf is a recreation industry particularly sensitive to climate, yet the potential implications of climate change for the industry remain largely unexamined. This study presents findings of the first known impact assessment to compare the regional impacts of projected changes in the climate on the golf industry in Canada (or internationally). Empirical relationships between daily rounds played and four weather variables were defined through multiple regression analysis and then used to examine the potential impacts of two climate change scenarios on the length of the golf season and the number of rounds played in three regions of Canada (West Coast, Great Lakes, East Coast). Regionally, the West Coast region was projected to benefit the least from projected climate change, as golf courses that are currently open year round experienced only slight projected increases in rounds played in the 2020s and 2050s. Golf courses in the Great Lakes region could experience a 10- to 51-day longer average golf season and a 21 percent to 3 percent increase in rounds as early as the 2020s, and an even more pronounced increase in the 2050s. East Coast golf courses were projected to benefit the most under both climate change scenarios, experiencing larger gains in average operating seasons (25 to 45 days in the 2020s) and a 40 percent to 48 percent increase in rounds played by as early as the 2020s.     

Nuclear enlightenment and counter‐enlightenment

Given the apocalyptic nature of nuclear weapons, how can states establish an international order that ensures survival while allowing the weapons to be used in controlled ways to discourage great wars, and while allowing nuclear technology to dif use for civil purposes? How can the possession of nuclear weapons by a few states be reconciled with their renunciation by the majority of states? Which political strategies can best deliver an international nuclear order that is effective, legitimate and durable? These have been central questions in the nuclear age. This article suggests that the effort to construct such an order displayed the characteristics of an enlightenment project, with its emphasis on balance and rationality, the quest for justice and trust among states, the feasibility of instrumental regulation, and the attachment to hope and progress. With the Nuclear Non‐Proliferation Treaty at its heart, it necessarily gave precedence to diplomacy and containment over preventive war. The reasons why this conception of nuclear order was discarded by its erstwhile champion, the United States, in favour of one bearing traits of counter‐enlightenment, are explored. Its alternative strategy can now be declared a failure. Avoidance of a greater disorder depends on recognition that the problem of nuclear order is more than the problem of proliferation, or of non‐compliance, and on recovery—whatever the difficulties—of the cooperative yet pragmatic sensibility that lay behind the prior approach to order.     

Language,ethnicity and religion: a complex and persistent linkage

ABSTRACT. Among the markers of ethnonational identity, language and religion have figured with equal prominence. In many cases, religion has been the bedrock of nation‐building; and even today, it is difficult to separate a number of national identities from their religious matrices. Religious identity is based on, and perpetuated in, narratives expressed in a specific language. Language and religion are related; in our secular age, however, that relationship is no longer consistent. The two may feed upon one another; language may substitute for religion; or religion may trump language. This article explores the varying relationships between language and religion.     

Coastal Livelihood Transitions: Socio‐Economic Consequences of Changing Mangrove Forest Management and Land Allocation in a Commune of Central Vietnam

This paper reviews the evolution of land use and mangrove forest management in a coastal commune in Central Vietnam from its early period of environmentally sound management under a common property regime, through State and cooperative management, to individual household allocation under the economic reforms of the 1990s. It analyses in particular the introduction of shrimp culture and its environmental and socioeconomic consequences. The case study demonstrates that, while opening up many economic opportunities, Vietnam's economic reforms have had uneven impacts on income inequality. Like many cases in Asia and Latin America, the disruption of common property resources – through the introduction of aquaculture as a livelihood opportunity and producer of an export crop – leaves farmers indebted and natural resources polluted. But, ironically, it was the financially better‐off aquaculture farmers, who had more capacity for risk‐taking and investing, who ended up most indebted, in comparison with poorer farmers who had already sold their ponds. The latter were less integrated into the market economy and relied more on marine product collection. This paper suggests that attention to local contexts and histories can contribute to a better understanding of the causes and consequences of environment‐poverty interfaces.