The logic of the herd: A computer simulation of archaeological herd structure

The advent of new techniques of dental ageing has permitted inferences about the age-structures of ancient animal populations on the basis of faunal remains. Unfortunately, inference from archaeological populations of faunal elements to the age-structure of ancient herds is fraught with both sampling problems and logical difficulties. The relationship between a living herd—a dynamic system characterized by growth—and a static archaeological population is more complex than that assumed by current models based on kill-off patterns and survivorship curves. Using a computer simulation, these logical relationships are explored, and the effects of herd growth on the composition of live and death populations are evaluated. By employing the simulation within a deductive framework, constrained by ethnographically derived criteria for reproduction, mortality, and economic viability in the Near East, it is possible to determine whether certain archaeological kill-off patterns could represent viable herding systems. Examples were found to vary widely in terms of both demographic plausibility and economic viability. Some implications for the possible course of ova-caprine domestication in the Near East are discussed.