Interregional Migration Modeling via Entropy and Information Theory

In attempting to model gross migration flows, as distinct from net flows, entropy and information theory models supplement those from the demographic tradition. However, clear differences exist between these two classes, including the type of origin and destination information which needs to be supplied, the relationship between the overall decision to migrate and the conditional choice of destination, the role of behavioral variables other than distance, and the expected predictive performance. In this paper, an enhanced interregional migration model is introduced which attempts a further integration of both the above classes. A linear version of the model is used for exploratory data analysis on a large Australian population census data set. Several alternative hypotheses are then tested with the general model. Some guidelines are also indicated toward developing a fully dynamic version of the model as well as a formal hierarchical framework.     

Involvement of street children in the political violence of Bangladesh

Analyzing the situation in Dhaka, Bangladesh before the national election of 2014, this paper explores the consequences of political hostility on street-connected children using qualitative methods such as focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Findings show that the children were affected by political violence, both as victims and perpetrators, which harmed them, both physically and mentally. Active participation of children was found in hostile political events. The paper ascertains that maintaining a good relationship with the adult world is crucial for the street-connected children’s day-to-day survival. However, this survival mechanism with the adult world in turn makes them vulnerable and forced them to act as miscreants to instigate violence during the hartals (strikes) and blockades of 2014. This study examines how street-connected children are exploited via their social networks during the times of political unrest.     

‘Knowledge that moves’: emotions and affect in policy and research with young migrants

ABSTRACT

Migration is an emotional experience, and so is the policy and research work associated with it. Yet, discussions on emotions and affect remain largely absent from the literature on children and youth migration. Writing auto-ethnographically, I revisit my research with/about young Lao migrants with the aim of teasing out how emotions, of young migrants, of my own and in policy making emerged in relation to various dimensions of young people’s migration. On this basis I make the case for appreciating emotions as knowledge. While emotions are ‘moving’ in an affective sense, I proceed by arguing the productive dimension of emotions through the idea of the emotive as ‘knowledge that moves’. I substantiate this point by discussing instances in which emotions as a particular form of knowledge ‘move’ research decisions, policy making processes, theorizing the youthful dimension of migration as well as the interpersonal relations through which ethnographic research is realized.     

Selling the Iran Nuclear Agreement: Prospect Theory and the Campaign to Frame the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Abstract

This paper examines the Obama administration’s arguments for ratifying the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities and whether these claims encouraged U.S. senators to approve the agreement. The analysis relies on Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory in which more risk is taken to avoid certain loss and improve conditions when options are framed in terms of losses rather than gains. We argue that the Obama administration was able to persuade Democratic senators to support the JCPOA by arguing the agreement had the potential to curb the development of nuclear weapons by the Iranian regime. But more importantly, the administration was able to frame the status quo as a certain loss, and thus, the risk associated with the JCPOA was acceptable in comparison to not adopting the agreement. Our analysis of the Obama administration’s lobbying efforts and the Democratic senators' statements in support of the agreement demonstrate the value of applying prospect theory to understanding decision making with respect to American foreign policy formulation.