Selling the Iran Nuclear Agreement: Prospect Theory and the Campaign to Frame the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Abstract

This paper examines the Obama administration’s arguments for ratifying the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities and whether these claims encouraged U.S. senators to approve the agreement. The analysis relies on Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory in which more risk is taken to avoid certain loss and improve conditions when options are framed in terms of losses rather than gains. We argue that the Obama administration was able to persuade Democratic senators to support the JCPOA by arguing the agreement had the potential to curb the development of nuclear weapons by the Iranian regime. But more importantly, the administration was able to frame the status quo as a certain loss, and thus, the risk associated with the JCPOA was acceptable in comparison to not adopting the agreement. Our analysis of the Obama administration’s lobbying efforts and the Democratic senators' statements in support of the agreement demonstrate the value of applying prospect theory to understanding decision making with respect to American foreign policy formulation.     

Annual Report and Accounts for the Year 1983

ENZYKLOPÄDIE DES MÄRCHENS. Edited by KURT RANKE. Volume 5. Issues 1-3. Berlin (Walter de Gruyter) 1985/86. cols 1-864. Issue 1: ISBN 3 11 010590X. Price: DM 73.00. Issues 2/3 ISBN 3 11 010591 8. Price: DM 152.- Reviewed by Sandy Hobbs.

OEDIPUS: A FOLKLORE CASEBOOK. Edited by LOWELL EDMUNDS and ALAN DUNDES. Garland Publishing, Inc. New York and London. 1983. xv 266 pages. ISBN 0.8240.9242.2 Reviewed by Sandy Hobbs.

OEDIPUS: THE ANCIENT LEGEND AND ITS LATER ANALOGUES. By LOWELL EDMUNDS. The Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore and London, 1985. xxii, 242 pages. List of Analogues. Bibliographies. Index of Sources. Index of Names and Subjects. ISBN 0.8018.2490.7 Reviewed by Sandy Hobbs.

COUNTRY VOICES: LIFE &; LORE DM FARM &; VILLAGE. By CHARLES KIGHTLY. London: Thames &; Hudson, 1984. £8.95. pp. 239; Illus.,; Glossary; Index. Reviewed by Georgina Boyes.

DER ALTERSVERS DES WECHSELBALGES UND DIE ÜBRIGEN ALTERSVERSE. (FF Communications No. 235). By ROBERT WILDHABER. Academia Scientiarum Fennica, Helsinki, 1985, Paperback, pp. 116 Reviewed by Jon Erickson.

THE HONEY TREE SONG: POEMS AND CHANTS OF SARAWAK DAYAKS—by CAROL RUBENSTEIN. Ohio University Press, Athens, Ohio 1985. ISBN 0-8214-0413-X. Reviewed by Jan Knappert.

BELLE GUNNESS: THE LADY BLUEBEARD by JANET L. LANGLOIS. University of Indiana Press, 1985, xi, 174pp, hardback. No price. Reviewed by Brian McConnell.

THE BANSHEE: THE IRISH SUPERNATURAL DEATH MESSENGER by PATRICIA LYSAGHT. Dublin, The Glendale Press, 1986, 433 pp., maps and bibliography, ISBN 0-907606-29-6. Reviewed by Gillian Bennett.

MABON AND THE MYSTERIES OF BRITAIN. By CAITLIN MATTHEWS. Arkana, London and New York, 1986. £5.95. pp. 205. Index. Bibliography. Illustrated. ISBN 1-85063-052-6 Reviewed by Juliette Wood.

GERMAN VOLKSKUNDE: A Decade of Theoretical Confrontation, Debate and Reorientation (1967–1977) (Folklore Studies in Translation), edited and translated by JAMES R. DOW and HANNJOST LIXFELD. Indiana University Press. Bloomington, Indiana, 1986. 343 pp. $35.00 Cloth. 0-253-32577-3 Reviewed by Craig Fees.

LOUDER THAN WORDS: AN INTRODUCTION TO NON-VERBAL COMMUNICATION. By Marjorie Fink Vargas. Ames, Iowa: Iowa State University Press. $19.95. pp. 182 Illus. ISBN 0-8138-1113-9 Reviewed by P. G. Daniels.

EVOLUTION IN TEXTILE DESIGN FROM THE HIGHLANDS OF GUATAMALA. By MARGOT BLUM SCHEVILL. University of Washington Press, P.O. Box 50096, U.S.A., $12.95, direct from Publisher. 84 pp, 87 illustrations, maps, appendices, glossary notes and bibliography. ISBN 0-963127-01-5, LC 86-2858 Reviewed by Wanda Stanley.

KATALOG ZUR VOLKSERZÄHLUNG, HANS-JÖRG UTHER. K. G. Saur, München, New York, London, Oxford, Paris 1987. 2 vols. pp. 1135 £165.00 Reviewed by RMJ.

THE EVIDENCE FOR PHANTOM HITCH-HIKERS. By MICHAEL GOSS. THE AQUARIAN PRESS, WELLINGBOROUGH, 1984. PP 160, 13 ILUST. ISBN 0-85030-376-1. £2.95 Reviewed by Angelika Schmetzke.

A LYCANTHROPY READER: WEREWOLVES IN WESTERN CULTURE, by CHARLOTTE F. OTTEN. Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, New York. 1986. Cloth $32.50. Paper $14.95, Pp. 360. Index. Selected bibliography. ISBN 0 8156 2383 6 and 0 8156 2384 4 (pbk). Reviewed by Caroline Oates.

SAGA, LEGEND, TALE, NOVELLA, FABLE: NARRATIVE FORMS IN OLD TESTAMENT LITERATURE. Edited by GEORGE W. COATS. Journal for the Study of the Old Testament, Supplement Series 35. Department of Biblical Studies, the University of Sheffield. 1985. £15.95; pbk £6.50. pp. 157. Indeces of Biblical passages and of authors quoted. ISBN 0-905774-84-1 and 0-905774-85-x Pbk. Reviewed by W. F. H. Nicolaisen.     

Conceptualising the unique in human ecology and evolution

Foley, Robert. Another Unique Species: Patterns in Human Evolutionary Ecology. Harlow: Longman; New York: Wiley, 1987 xxii + 313 pp. including references and index. £12.95.

Ingold, Tim. The Appropriation of Nature: Essays on Human Ecology and Social Relations. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1986. ix + 287 pp. including references and index. £27.50.     

Child Trafficking: ‘Worst Form’ of Child Labour,or Worst Approach to Young Migrants?

This article presents a critique to the human trafficking discourse in relation to child migration, based on data obtained from the anti‐trafficking community in the Greater Mekong Sub‐region combined with an analysis of secondary material. It also presents a set of qualitative accounts of migration at a young age from Lao PDR and Thailand. On this basis a more theorized, grounded and nuanced perspective on child labour migration is developed. This situates child labour migration historically, embeds it within overarching processes of rural transformation and accounts for young migrants’ agency in the social process of migration, the latter shedding light on the social production of exploitation in relation to young migrants.