Strategic Reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy

President Putin has presided over a proactive, hard-headed and relatively effective Russian policy in Central Asia and the Caspian region since at least the summer of 2002, which aims both to support Russia's revival as an economic and military power and to help tackle at source new security challenges from the volatile south. In line with rising domestic nationalist thinking and the growing influence of officials with a security service or military background, Moscow has been searching for a rationale to support a more assertive policy in the region. Meanwhile, Russian and American views on the scope and conduct of the war on terrorism have diverged in important respects. Russia lacks an overall regional strategy for Central Asia, but is seeking to mesh together geopolitical, security and energy policy goals. It is seeking to reinvigorate its military–security influence in Central Asia under the banner of counterterrorism and at the same time has achieved long-term agreements for energy transit and purchases that make Central Asian states increasingly dependent on Russia in energy policy. Overall, a dynamic of competition is displacing the potential for cooperation between Russia and western states, especially the United States, in Central Asia. The prospects for a fully-fledged strategic partnership in the region are fading but the reality of security threats from Afghanistan and within Central Asia might eventually reconcile Moscow to a lower profile but long-term western strategic presence in the region.     

Book reviews

Katrien Polman. The central Moluccas: an annotated bibliography. XXVI, 324 pp. Dordrecht: Foris Publications, 1983. (Koninklijk Instituut voor Taal‐, Land en Volkenkunde. Bibliographical Series, 12.)

S. W. R. Mulyadi (ed.). Hikayat Indraputra: a Malay romance, vii, 315 pp., 6 plates. Dordrecht: Foris Publications, 1983. (Koninklijk Ihstituut voor Taal‐, Land‐ en Volkenkunde. Biblotheca Indonesica, 23.) Guilders 30.     

Interregional Migration Modeling via Entropy and Information Theory

In attempting to model gross migration flows, as distinct from net flows, entropy and information theory models supplement those from the demographic tradition. However, clear differences exist between these two classes, including the type of origin and destination information which needs to be supplied, the relationship between the overall decision to migrate and the conditional choice of destination, the role of behavioral variables other than distance, and the expected predictive performance. In this paper, an enhanced interregional migration model is introduced which attempts a further integration of both the above classes. A linear version of the model is used for exploratory data analysis on a large Australian population census data set. Several alternative hypotheses are then tested with the general model. Some guidelines are also indicated toward developing a fully dynamic version of the model as well as a formal hierarchical framework.     

Involvement of street children in the political violence of Bangladesh

Analyzing the situation in Dhaka, Bangladesh before the national election of 2014, this paper explores the consequences of political hostility on street-connected children using qualitative methods such as focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Findings show that the children were affected by political violence, both as victims and perpetrators, which harmed them, both physically and mentally. Active participation of children was found in hostile political events. The paper ascertains that maintaining a good relationship with the adult world is crucial for the street-connected children’s day-to-day survival. However, this survival mechanism with the adult world in turn makes them vulnerable and forced them to act as miscreants to instigate violence during the hartals (strikes) and blockades of 2014. This study examines how street-connected children are exploited via their social networks during the times of political unrest.