Estimating Historical Total Fertility Rates for Australia and Its States

Abstract.

Australian Bureau of Statistics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics are available from 1921 for Australia, and for census years between 1947 and 1966 for the states, and then on an annual basis from 1971. Using historical, statistical publications, annual TFRs for Australia and the states dating back to federation in 1901 were calculated directly in years where data are available and estimated indirectly via the standardized fertility ratio in other years. For some periods where direct TFR estimation was applied, age-specific births used in the numerators of fertility rates must be estimated from partial data. Combined with Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the authors’ estimated TFRs contribute an uninterrupted time series of national and state TFRs for Australia from 1901 to 2011.     

Inferring attitudes from behavior

Abstract

The Middle East has long been a conflict zone; the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been a persistent factor for decades, and there have been wars over natural resources, ideological causes, and national or religious cleavages as well. How does a historian begin to compile a documentary record of such a struggle? At the beginning of my research stay in the Middle East in 2007, I decided to keep a diary about my experiences and assessments in the field. In this article, I recount and reflect about those experiences in order to propose potential solutions to the problem of on-site research in unstable areas. While field research generally requires a particular kind of preparation, and always faces obstacles and challenges, the success of fieldwork under difficult and hostile research settings is dependent on the skills of the researcher, and his or her ability and preparedness for the problems the nature of the research inevitably will bring forward.     

An Angel on the Wind: How Heroic Policy Narratives Shape Policy Realities

Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) is a new and maturing theory of the policy process that takes a systematic, scientific approach to understanding the social construction of policy realities. As such, NPF serves as a bridge between postpositivists, who assert that public policymaking is contextualized through narratives and social construction, and positivists, who contend that legitimacy is grounded in falsifiable claims. The central questions of NPF are: What is the empirical role of policy narratives in the policy process and do policy narratives influence policy outcomes? First, the contributions of NPF scholarship at three levels of analysis—micro, meso, and macro—are examined. Next, necessary conditions of a policy narrative are specified, accompanied by detailed discussion of the narrative components: narrative elements, narrative strategies, and policy beliefs. Finally, an empirical illustration of NPF—a case study of Cape Wind's proposal to install wind turbines off Nantucket—is presented. Although intercoalitional differences have long been studied in the NPF scholarship, this is the first study to examine intracoalitional cohesion or the extent to which a coalition tells the same story across narrative elements, narrative strategies, and policy beliefs. NPF is a new approach to the study of the policy process that offers empirical pathways to better speculating the role of narrative in the policy process.     

The Secret History of TANU: Rumor,Historiography and Muslim Unrest in Contemporary Dar Es Salaam

This article explores historical rumors and narratives told by Muslims of Dar es Salaam, contending that Julius Nyerere, TANU founder and first president of independent Tanzania, was an inexperienced schoolteacher thrust into the role of political activist through sponsorship of the Muslim community. This history was allegedly hidden by the current government to cover up not only Nyerere’s meteoric rise to a position of leadership, but also subsequent actions that wrested the movement from Muslims and other early TANU leaders to monopolize power for himself and upcountry elites. Just as academic historians critique the teleological trajectory of many nationalist histories, these rumors critique Tanzanian nationalist history through appropriating its historiographic form to forefront postcolonial grievances. The discursive nature of such rumors articulates the discontent permeating the postcolonial Muslim community of Dar es Salaam. And as political speech in action, rumors are instrumental in mobilizing new postcolonial political configurations.     

The influence of temperature on rehydroxylation [RHX] kinetics in archaeological pottery

Almost all archaeological ceramics undergo slow, progressive rehydroxylation by chemical combination with environmental water. The reaction is accompanied by an expansion, and also by the small but measurable mass gain that provides the basis of the RHX dating method. The rate of the RHX reaction increases with increasing temperature. Here we describe comprehensively the effects of temperature on the RHX process in relation to the dating methodology. We deal in turn with the kinetic model of the RHX reaction, the temperature dependence of the RHX rate, and the influence of varying environmental temperature on the RHX mass gain. We define an effective lifetime temperature and show how this is calculated from an estimated lifetime temperature history. Historical meteorological temperature data are used to estimate the lifetime temperature history, and this can be adjusted for long-term climate variation. We show also how to allow for the effects of burial in archaeological sites on the temperature history. Finally we describe how the uncertainties in estimates of RHX age depend on the estimates of temperature history and effective lifetime temperature.     

A short-snouted trematosauroid (Tetrapoda,Temnospondyli) from the Early Triassic of Australia: the oldest known trematosaurine

The trematosauroid temnospondyl Tirraturhinus smisseni gen. et sp. nov. from the Arcadia Formation of central Queensland, Australia, is described on the basis of its rostrum. This is the first trematosaurine (short-snouted) trematosauroid from Australia, and is considered to be most closely related to Tertrema acuta from Spitzbergen. Tirraturhinus smisseni occurs alongside lonchorhynchine (long-snouted) trematosauroids in the Arcadia Formation; the co-occurrence of both trematosauroid morphotypes in that fauna is repeated in a number of non-marine Early Triassic faunas elsewhere in Pangaea. The Arcadia Formation is probably Griesbachian (earliest Triassic), so that T. smisseni is the oldest known trematosaurine.     

Fridtjof Nansen and the Aegean population exchange

This article examines Fridtjof Nansen’s role in elaborating the compulsory Greco-Turkish population exchange of 1923–1924. Thrust into a spiralling crisis, the League’s High Commissioner took on humanitarian, representational and negotiating roles having long-term as well as immediate impact, while the Norwegian’s emergence at Lausanne as chief spokesman for an agreement widely considered reprehensible invites scrutiny of his interventions. Drawing on recent publications and key archival sources, the analysis presses four strands of argument. First, while Nansen helped articulate the exchange idea along with Greece’s Eleftherios Venizelos, he neither originated it nor provided the essential political impetus. Second, Nansen’s oft-cited ‘first mention’ of making it compulsory assigns him a misleadingly strong role in a solution chiefly engineered by Kemal’s Turkey. Third, his impact on the agreement’s scope, involving exemptions for minority populations in Western Thrace and Constantinople, was limited. Fourth, Nansen’s ultimate push for a lasting settlement blended pragmatism with strategic vision. Subsequent delays and wider political failure not of his making to secure equitable property exchange highlighted the harsher aspects of a deal all the main parties in fact favoured, Nansen recognized as necessary and which thwarted a still worse calamity.     

The Limits of Low-Tax Social Democracy? Welfare,Tax and Fiscal Dilemmas for Labor in Government

The Australian Labor Party, following its election to government in 2007, has implemented an ambitious social policy agenda with spending on hospitals, pensions and community workers, as well as programs for parental leave and disability. It has also reformed taxes, in part to finance these reforms, implementing the mining and carbon taxes in 2012. Labor, however, has difficulty avoiding deficits because tax revenues are too low to finance expanded welfare. This article explores the political constraints and opportunities involved in financing welfare by examining voter responses to the ANU Poll of September 2011. Spending on welfare is supported by low-income earners, while taxing big industries finds greater support among university-educated voters. The article advances an explanation for this mismatch and for why tax resistance has hindered Labor's efforts to finance welfare expansion.

澳大利亚工党在2007年选举上台后实施了雄心勃勃的社会政策计划,涉及医院、养老金、社区工作人员、带薪育婴假、残疾人等项开支。它还在2012年改革了税收,推行采矿及碳排放税为上述改革筹集资金。不过,工党苦于避免赤字,因为税收太少,资助不了扩大的福利。本文分析了选民对2011年9月ANU民调的回应,探讨了资助福利之举的限制与机遇。低收入者支持福利开支,受过高等教育者则多支持向大企业征税。本文解释了这种矛盾,以及为什反税收阻碍了工党资助福利扩张的努力。