Agricultural variation and human fertility in antebellum Pennsylvania

Focus in this discussion is on research designed to examine human fertility variation in 59 Pennsylvania counties in 1850 and 1860. The research goes beyond previous historical studies in examining the relationship between land quality and fertility and in separating the possible impacts of settlement from the availability of land for agricultural purposes. The measure of human fertility used in the analysis was the child-woman ratio, defined as the number of children aged 0-4/1000 white women aged 15-49. In 1850 the child-woman ratio ranged from 488-889. The child-woman ratio fell slightly between 1850 and 1860, and county level variation was reduced. Yet, Pennsylvania counties varied substantially in fertility levels during this period. The range between the highest and lowest fertility countries was over 400 children in 1850 and almost 350 in 1860. The set of agricultural variables displayed expected differences at the 2 time periods. The excess demand for farmsites increased between 1850 and 1860, while the variation in demand decreased by over one-half, reflecting additional settlement within all acres of the state. The settlement ratio increased over the decade; the sex ratio declined, most likely in response to outmigration westward. The agricultural variables were all negatively related to the child-woman ratio and were statistically significant, except for the labor/acre variable. The strongest correlation in 1850 was between the excess demand for farmsites and fertility. This coefficient indicated that the greater the excess demand for farmsites, the lower the child-woman ratio. This relationship was attentuated somewhat for 1860, yet it continued to be negative and statistically significant. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were all related to fertility in the expected direction, but only 5 of the 7 correlations were statistically significant in 1850 and 6 in 1860. The settlement ratio, sex ratio, percent urban, distance to urban place, and the measure of female age composition were all significantly related to fertility in 1850 and 1860. The study results support the growing body of research which has identified agricultural opportunity as a significant factor in fertility in rural areas of 19th century America. The findings also suggest that the importance of agricultural opportunity extended beyond the frontier period.     

Book reviews

Louise Overacker: Australian Parties in a Changing Society: 1945–67, F. W. Cheshire, Melbourne, 1968. pp. xi + 337, $3.95.

P. Y. Medding: From Assimilation to Group Survival: A Political and Sociological Study of an Australian Jewish Community, F. W. Cheshire, Melbourne, 1968, pp. 309 + xiii, $6.00.

John R. Williams: John Latham and the Conservative Recovery from Defeat 1929–1931, APSA Monograph 10, Sydney, 1969, pp. 28, 50 cents from APSA, School of Political Science, University of N.S.W., P.O. Box 1, Kensington, N.S.W. 2033.

L. G. Churchward: Contemporary Soviet Government, Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1968, pp. 366 + xix, $6.65.

A. R. Hall: The Stock Exchange of Melbourne and the Victorian Economy 1852–1900, A.N.U. Press, Canberra, 1968, pp. 267 + xiii, $7.95.

A. L. May: The Battle for the Banks, Sydney University Press, 1968, $5.00.

Robin Gollan: The Commonwealth Bank of Australia: Origins and Early History, Canberra, Australian National University Press, 1968, pp. vii + 179, $5.00.

Ronald F. Stinnett: Democrats, Dinners and Dollars, The Iowa State University Press, Ames (Iowa), 1967, pp. 310, $6.30. University of Sydney.

P. N. Troy, ed.: Urban Redevelopment in Australia, Research School of Social Sciences, A.N.U., pp. 441.     

Reviews

AUSTRALIA IN WORLD AFFAIRS 1961–1965. Gordon Greenwood and Norman Harper (eds.). Melbourne, F. W. Cheshire for the Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1968. Pp. vii + 503. $8.75.

VIETNAM. AN AUSTRALIAN ANALYSIS. Alan Watt. Melbourne, F. W. Cheshire for the Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1968. Pp. 156 + appendix, bibliography and index. $3.50.

LAOS—BUFFER STATE OR BATTLEGROUND. Hugh Toye. London, Oxford University Press, 1968. Pp. xvii + 245. $6.30.

PEACEKEEPING: INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGE AND CANADIAN RESPONSE. Alastair Taylor, David Cox and J. L. Granatstein. Toronto, Canadian Institute of International Affairs, 1968. Pp. 211. $4.50.

INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN CAMBODIA, LAOS AND VIETNAM, 1947–64. D. R. Desai. Berkeley, California University Press, 1968. Pp. 336. $10.00.

ASIAN FRONTIERS. STUDIES *IN A CONTINUING PROBLEM. Alastair Lamb. Melbourne, F. W. Cheshire, 1968, for the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Pp. x + 246. $3.50.

THE INDIANIZED STATES OF SOUTHEAST ASIA. G. Coedès. Translated by Susan Brown Cowing. Edited by Walter F. Vella. Canberra, Australian National University Press, 1968. Pp. xxi + 403. $12.00.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT IN MODERN JAPAN. Robert E. Ward (ed.). Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1968. Pp. xii + 637. $12.50.

MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE IN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY. DOCUMENTS AND COMMENTARIES. Peter Boyce. Sydney, Sydney University Press, 1968. Pp. xii + 268. $6.50.

NATO: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS. Harold von Riekhoff. Toronto, Canadian Institute of International Affairs, 1967. Pp. x + 170. $3.50.

SOUTH AFRICA. A STUDY IN CONFLICT. Pierre L. van den Berghe. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1967. Pp. xii + 371. (U.S.)$2.45.

STATE SUCCESSION IN MUNICIPAL LAW AND INTERNATIONAL LAW. D. P. O'Connell. London, Cambridge University Press, 1967. Vol. I, pp. i‐cxi, 1–592, £stg.7.7.0. Vol. II, pp. i‐cxi, 1–430, £stg.6.0.0.