Do Exchange Rates and Foreign Incomes Matter for Exports at the State Level?

At the national level, trade-weighted real exchange rates and foreign incomes significantly impact exports. At the subnational level, these variables are generally insignificant in the few studies that include them. We argue that the standard use of national trade weights in the construction of subnational trade-weighted averages of exchange rates and foreign incomes is inappropriate, and we then construct these variables using state-specific trade weights. In our panel data analysis of state-level manufacturing exports, these variables enter significantly and with the expected signs. Also, their out-of-sample forecasting ability is significantly better than that of the national trade-weighted variables.     

Disproportionality and bias in US Presidential Elections: How geography helped Bush defeat Gore but couldn't help Kerry beat Bush

The 2000 and 2004 US Presidential elections were closely fought contests, with in the first case victory in the Electoral College being denied to the candidate with the largest share of the popular vote. Disproportionality in the translation of votes into seats (in this case, from popular votes to votes in the Electoral College) is common to contests using a winner-takes-all electoral system. So is bias, whereby that disproportionality does not apply equally to each candidate. Analysis of the bias at those two elections shows that Bush was favoured at the first but not at the second. Identification of the bias components shows that Bush was advantaged by variations in the number of popular votes per Electoral College voter across the states, and also by variation in turnout. In 2000, his popular votes were also more efficiently distributed than Gore's; in 2004 they were less efficiently distributed than Kerry's, largely because of increased turnout – producing larger numbers of surplus votes – in states that were already safe for Bush.     

HOMEOWNERS ASSOCIATIONS AND THE DEMAND FOR LOCAL LAND USE REGULATION

Residents pay into Homeowners Associations (HOAs) to exert greater control over service provision, their properties and those of their neighbors. HOAs enforce restrictions governing land use within their boundaries, but theory is ambiguous about their impact on public land use. By combining two novel data sets on Florida HOAs and municipal regulations, we examine how HOAs affect public land use regimes for 232 cities. We find that the prevalence of HOAs is positively associated with a propensity for regulation, as are newer and bigger HOAs. Also, HOAs are positively associated with land use techniques that direct development through incentives, rather than mandates.     

EMU versus the regions? Regional convergence and divergence in Euroland

There is currently considerable interest in and debate overthe impact of increasing European economic and monetary integration(EMU) on the regions of the EU. Opinion is sharply divided overwhether EMU is leading to regional economic convergence or regionaleconomic divergence. This paper examines the theoretical argumentsand empirical evidence for these opposing views, and presentssome additional analysis of patterns of regional productivitytrends and employment growth over the period 1975–98.The picture that emerges is a complex one: whilst worker productivityshows only very weak convergence across the EU regions (a processwhich halted altogether after the mid-1980s), regional employmentgrowth has been sharply divergent. Although there is littlesupport for the claim that EMU will lead to regional convergence,these findings suggest that until much more detailed investigationof the specific impacts on particular types of region is undertaken,the regional implications of EMU will remain a contentious issue.     

Regional Wage Rigidity: The European Union and United States Compared

In recent years it has been pointed out that regional unemployment disparities are much more entrenched across member states of the European Union (E.U.) than they are in the U.S. A 'conventional wisdom' has emerged to the effect that this difference is due in part to the greater degree of wage rigidity in E.U. regions. In this paper we explore this issue by estimating short run and long run real wage (in)flexibility for the regions in five core E.U. countries (Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands) and for the U.S. states for the period 1976–1994. We find that real wage (in)flexibility varies across regions both in the E.U. and the U.S., but that, on average, regional wages are no less flexible in E.U. core regions than in U.S. states. The paper also examines some of the possible correlates ofregional variations in wage (in)flexibility.     

Scotland’s Electoral Geography Differed from the Rest of Britain’s in 2017 (and 2015) – Exploring its Contours

The rapid expansion in support for the Scottish National Party (SNP) between the 2010 and 2015 general elections substantially changed the country’s electoral geography, as again did its relative decline at the next election in 2017. At that last contest, however, the SNP won many seats with fewer than 40% of the votes cast, a situation very different from that in the rest of Great Britain. That difference – which had a considerable impact on the formation of a government in June 2017 – came about because of the nature of the competition in individual seats.